Tracking the Sagarin predictions: Week 1

[Gopher07]

As with the last couple years, I'll be sharing the Sagarin predictions for the season. Sagarin's ratings can be found here: http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/fbt11.htm

I take [home team rating + 3.08 (home field advantage)] - [away team rating] to show spreads. Right now it's going to be very odd as things get sorted out/more teams play more teams. But for now, here we go:

Minnesota, #64, 71.05 PREDICTOR rating. Results/predicted lines in parentheses.

@ USC (L, 19-17)
vs NMSU (-24)
vs Miami (OH) (-13)
vs NDSU (-11)
@ Michigan (+7)
@ Purdue (-1)
vs Nebraska (+9)
vs Iowa (+6.5)
@ Michigan St (+9.5)
vs Wisconsin (+9.5)
@ Northwestern (+5)
vs Illinois (-1)

Final record: 5-7 (2-6).

Good chance to win (>6 spread favoring Gophers): New Mexico State, Miami, North Dakota State
Close wins (0-6 spread favoring Gophers): Purdue, Illinois
Close losses (0-6 spread favoring opponent): Northwestern
Good chance to lose (>6 spread favoring opponent): Michigan, Nebraska, Iowa, Michigan State, Wisconsin

 

[popeyoung5]

Gotta love math, stats and computers. I would not disagree with any of this. But that's why they tee it up and ball! Is it Saturday yet? Final score 44-6

 

[GopherFB]

Well,I guess that puts the Gophers around 5-6 wins, which is where I expected.

 

[Formo]

I don't recall you doing these last year.. but regardless if you did them or not.. Great stuff man!