Tourney: MN vs. IL

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GopherNation

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Illinois (18-11) Key wins: #14 MSU, #17 Wisc, #20 Van, Clem
RPI: 76

upcoming games:
Wisconsin
@ Ohio State

Minnesota (17-11) Key wins: #15 Butler, #9 OSU, #17 Wisc, ILL
RPI: 71

upcoming games:
@ Michigan
Iowa


Let's hope we get some help from Wisc and OSU.
 

If we win out, and IL loses their last 2...we have a much better shot of getting in than IL.
 


If we win the BT Tourney, we have an excellent chance of going to the NCAAs. Otherwise, not so much.
 

I disagree...if we go 10-8 in the Big Ten, finish 20-11, and get 1 win in the BT tourney, I think we are in (meaning we win the next three, assuming IL loses to Wisc and OSU).
 


GopherFish said:
If we win the BT Tourney, we have an excellent chance of going to the NCAAs. Otherwise, not so much.
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If we win out, and win 2 in the tourney, we're in.

Finishing 5th in the Big 10 at 10-8, overall record of 21-11, RPI in the low 50's, they can't leave us out. Simply won't happen if we win the next 4 games.
 

Everyone needs to stop worrying about Ill. Worry about ourselves. We are not going against them for a bid, we are going against ourselves. 4 more wins and we are probably in, less than that we are not.
 

GopherNation said:
I disagree...if we go 10-8 in the Big Ten, finish 20-11, and get 1 win in the BT tourney, I think we are in (meaning we win the next three, assuming IL loses to Wisc and OSU).
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And you do realize today, the Gopher's RPI today is 80 (go check it yourself and RPI record for Gophers includes today's win, though not sure if it was fully factored in or not) and games against Michigan and Iowa likely won't make any signficant improvement to our RPI? Lets say we win out and our RPI moves up to 70. When was the last team to get an at large bid with such a poor RPI? Last year the Gophers RPI was 42 and they sweated a little as to whether they got in.

If we win Tourney, we get in. If we make finals and lose Tourney, our chances are iffy. If we don't win remaining conference games and make final of BT tourney, our chances are next to nothing.
 

ShowinGoldyLove said:
If we win out, and win 2 in the tourney, we're in.

Finishing 5th in the Big 10 at 10-8, overall record of 21-11, RPI in the low 50's, they can't leave us out. Simply won't happen if we win the next 4 games.
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Not certain but good chance at 21-12 (like 2005 Gophers at 21-11). I think 22 W = certainty.
 



Illinois winning one more game to finish 5th, making the Gophers 6th, gives the Gophs one extra "gimme" vs. Indiana or PSU in the 6/11 game of the BTT. Not sure if that's ideal or not if we're strictly talking about W's....quality or not.
 

Friend Of Tubby said:
Not certain but good chance at 21-12 (like 2005 Gophers at 21-11). I think 22 W = certainty.
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FOT, you clearly place a lot of importance on win total. Do you think the Gophers would be better off as the #6 seed in the BTT so as to pick up an extra win in the 1st round rather then getting a bye with the #5 seed? I definately do not.
 

RPI does matter and there is no way the Gophers RPI goes to the low 50s without winning the BT Tourney. The Committee can easily leave us out if we don't win the BT Tourney. I think if we make the finals and lose, we have some chance, but we would be at the mercy of the selection committee and better hope that there aren't many upsets in tourney play.
 

IMO, the selection committee will do anything they can to leave us out of the tourney this year to penalize us for our idiotic non-conference schedule. We would be fine if we would have won all the games we were supposed too...so not harping on Tubby...but we didn't win those games and now we have to live on the merits of our schedule and it sucked.

The committee loves punishing big conference teams that don't play big NC schedules and lose winnable games and we are the poster child for that this year. I think the Purdue loss put us in a must win last three plus the BTT or we are out. Just my opinion.
 



howeda7 said:
FOT, you clearly place a lot of importance on win total. Do you think the Gophers would be better off as the #6 seed in the BTT so as to pick up an extra win in the 1st round rather then getting a bye with the #5 seed? I definately do not.
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Yes, I do. Need 22 W on March 14 for NCAA bid.
 

GopherinPhilly said:
IMO, the selection committee will do anything they can to leave us out of the tourney this year to penalize us for our idiotic non-conference schedule. We would be fine if we would have won all the games we were supposed too...so not harping on Tubby...but we didn't win those games and now we have to live on the merits of our schedule and it sucked.

The committee loves punishing big conference teams that don't play big NC schedules and lose winnable games and we are the poster child for that this year. I think the Purdue loss put us in a must win last three plus the BTT or we are out. Just my opinion.
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Butler, Texas A&M are Top 25 teams. Morgan St, Stephen F Austin are 20 W teams. Miami FL maybe (20 W).
 

GopherinPhilly said:
IMO, the selection committee will do anything they can to leave us out of the tourney this year to penalize us for our idiotic non-conference schedule. We would be fine if we would have won all the games we were supposed too...so not harping on Tubby...but we didn't win those games and now we have to live on the merits of our schedule and it sucked.

The committee loves punishing big conference teams that don't play big NC schedules and lose winnable games and we are the poster child for that this year. I think the Purdue loss put us in a must win last three plus the BTT or we are out. Just my opinion.
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Agreed. Garbage in and garbage out (of the tourney). Tubby's NC schedule gave the team no margin for error.

A nice win today against an uninterested Illini team but, too little, too late.
 

We had one of the tougher NC schedules in the conference. Last year that argument might have worked better.
 

the RPI still frustrates me, Cal has a RPI in the top 30 and hasn't beaten a single RPI top 50 team. They have 20 wins after today but still IMO our four best wins counting todays win could all be better than their best win and yet they have a top 30 RPI.
 

Gophers have more quality wins than most teams that are not considered on the bubble. However, losses to Portland, at Indiana and Michigan at home REALLY hurt.
 

jamiche said:
Agreed. Garbage in and garbage out (of the tourney). Tubby's NC schedule gave the team no margin for error.

A nice win today against an uninterested Illini team but, too little, too late.
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BS. Uninterested Illini? Pure BS.

The Gophers have 4 L (2 by 1 pt, other 2 in OT) that turned 21-7 (now) into 17-11.
 

We had three close wins over IL, PSU and NW. But I don't think close losses and close wins are much of a factor at all.
 

Friend Of Tubby said:
Yes, I do. Need 22 W on March 14 for NCAA bid.
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I can't wrap my head around this point of view. Why would the Selection Comittee punish us for finishing as the 5 seed in our conference and getting a bye? I don't think they would. A throw away win against PSU or Indiana certainly doesn't do anything to impress anyone or improve our RPI. No doubt it's better to get the #5 seed if possible.
 

FWIW, Minnesota is now ahead of Illinois in the RPI, 70 vs 72. If we win both this week and they lose both, that gap would grow, with the Gophers ending up around 60 and the Illini around 80. If Illinois even splits, however, they will not only keep the #5 seed, but also likely remain higher in the RPI.
 

howeda7 said:
I can't wrap my head around this point of view. Why would the Selection Comittee punish us for finishing as the 5 seed in our conference and getting a bye? I don't think they would. A throw away win against PSU or Indiana certainly doesn't do anything to impress anyone or improve our RPI. No doubt it's better to get the #5 seed if possible.
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Because 19-12 (your way) < 21-12 or 22-12 (mine).
 

ShowinGoldyLove said:
If we win out, and win 2 in the tourney, we're in.

Finishing 5th in the Big 10 at 10-8, overall record of 21-11, RPI in the low 50's, they can't leave us out. Simply won't happen if we win the next 4 games.
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I'm sure it's obvious...but unless we win the BTT, you need to tack another loss onto that total...
 

Friend Of Tubby said:
Because 19-12 (your way) < 21-12 or 22-12 (mine).
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Huh? Let's say we advance to the BTT semi-finals either way. With a bye, they'd be 20-12. 'Your' way they'd be 21-12. 1 meaningless win over PSU the only difference. Not 2-3 wins. And that one win adds nothing in the eyes of the Selection Commitee.
 


howeda7 said:
Huh? Let's say we advance to the BTT semi-finals either way. With a bye, they'd be 20-12. 'Your' way they'd be 21-12. 1 meaningless win over PSU the only difference. Not 2-3 wins. And that one win adds nothing in the eyes of the Selection Commitee.
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You indicated you would take L to Wisky over my way.

Your way = 19-12 therefore.

19-12 = no NCAA bid.
 

Friend Of Tubby said:
You indicated you would take L to Wisky over my way.

Your way = 19-12 therefore.

19-12 = no NCAA bid.
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I never said that. I said I want a bye. I'll take a 4/5 game vs Wiscy over a 'possible' 3/6 game with MSU. Other then OSU I think we match up equally well with the other 3 of the big boys. Besides, at this point who's 1-4 is totally fluid and we are just as likely to have a favorable match-up in the 4-5 game as 3-6. Either way we need to get to at least the semis to have a good shot. But I'd rather eliminate a hurdle of playing in the 1st round in a game that adds nothing to our resume. Besides PSU is suddenly playing well.
 

howeda7 said:
I never said that. I said I want a bye. I'll take a 4/5 game vs Wiscy over a 'possible' 3/6 game with MSU. Other then OSU I think we match up equally well with the other 3 of the big boys. Besides, at this point who's 1-4 is totally fluid and we are just as likely to have a favorable match-up in the 4-5 game as 3-6. Either way we need to get to at least the semis to have a good shot. But I'd rather eliminate a hurdle of playing in the 1st round in a game that adds nothing to our resume. Besides PSU is suddenly playing well.
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Gophers need W.

19 W = no NCAA bid.
 

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