Tom Dienhart's Bowl Projections

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Dienhart has the Gophers in the Little Caesars Pizza Bowl against Ohio:

Little Caesars Pizza, Dec. 26 (vs. MAC): Ohio vs. Minnesota
Buffalo Wild Wings, Dec. 29 (Big 12): TCU vs. Northwestern
Meineke Car Care, Dec. 28 (Big 12): Baylor vs. Iowa
TicketCity, Jan. 1 (C-USA): Texas Tech vs. Purdue
Capital One, Jan. 1 (SEC): South Carolina vs. Wisconsin
Outback, Jan. 1 (SEC): Georgia vs. Michigan
Gator, Jan. 1 (SEC): Auburn vs. Illinois
Fiesta, Jan. 3 (BCS): Nebraska vs. Oklahoma
Rose, Jan. 1 (BCS): Michigan State vs. Oregon
Click to expand...

http://btn.com/2012/08/27/dienhart-my-preseason-big-ten-bowl-projections/
 

I've seen a lot of prognosticators with high hopes for Illinois this year. I'm missing something. Bowl game, maybe. But I think they'll be scratching and clawing for six wins like us.
 


I think that Illinois has a lot of talent returning. I still think the transition hits them hard, but with the talent they have I can see some prognosticators going with the "new system trumps clown like former coach" or something similar.
 

Both ESPN bloggers have the Gophers turning in their gear prior to bowl season.
 


Not sure how I feel about this. On one hand its great that outsiders aren't looking at the Gophers as roadkill anymore, but on the other I can't believe that 11 of the 12 Big Ten teams are going to be bowl eligible (Ohio St. will certainly have enough wins and Penn St still has enough talent to win 6+ games). For this to happen, Minnesota, Purdue, Illinois, Northwestern and maybe even Iowa are going to all be around 6-6. Not sure how this will happen as the conference wins for all of these teams will almost exclusively be against each other. As much as I would love to see Wisky go 0-12, pretty sure that won't happen and I don't see a big regression coming from either Michigan school this year. That said I think a 6-6 most definitely attainable for the Gophs while 7-5 or 8-4 (drinking a whole lot of Kill-aid) are possible. Just not sure how mathematically Dienhart's predictions make sense.
 

CurveballJesus said:
For this to happen, Minnesota, Purdue, Illinois, Northwestern and maybe even Iowa are going to all be around 6-6. Not sure how this will happen as the conference wins for all of these teams will almost exclusively be against each other.
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Yep.. No way all of those teams make a bowl game. Someone has to have a bad season. Hope we aren't that team.
 

CurveballJesus said:
Not sure how I feel about this. Just not sure how mathematically Dienhart's predictions make sense.
Click to expand...

I don't know the non-conference schedules of the other Big Ten teams but I have been to led to believe that most of them are quite easy. Therefore if you win all four of your non-conference games you only need to win two of your 8 conference games. For almost of all of the conference teams that isn't a very big hill to climb. Even if you happen to loose one of your non-conference games winning 37.5% of your conference game is in the realm of possibility for almost every Big Ten Team excluding Indiana. You may have notice that the only team that is on the bowl list, other than Ohio State and Penn State is Indiana. Minnesota is probably the biggest question mark on this list but it has a very decent chance to go bowling.

So as far as the mathematics, sure it is not a slam dunk, but it is certainly in the realm of possibility.
 

CurveballJesus said:
Not sure how I feel about this. On one hand its great that outsiders aren't looking at the Gophers as roadkill anymore, but on the other I can't believe that 11 of the 12 Big Ten teams are going to be bowl eligible (Ohio St. will certainly have enough wins and Penn St still has enough talent to win 6+ games). For this to happen, Minnesota, Purdue, Illinois, Northwestern and maybe even Iowa are going to all be around 6-6. Not sure how this will happen as the conference wins for all of these teams will almost exclusively be against each other.
Click to expand...
Same way it happened last year when the B1G sent 10 teams bowling. All that would have to happen is a very similar season to last year only with Northwestern winning all their non-con games so that a loss to Minnesota (this would be one of the two B1G wins combining with a 4-0 non-con record for bowl eligibility) wouldn't keep them from being 6-6.

Do I think it will happen? No. Is it completely farfetched based on how last year turned out? No.
 



GoAUpher said:
Same way it happened last year when the B1G sent 10 teams bowling. All that would have to happen is a very similar season to last year only with Northwestern winning all their non-con games so that a loss to Minnesota (this would be one of the two B1G wins combining with a 4-0 non-con record for bowl eligibility) wouldn't keep them from being 6-6.

Do I think it will happen? No. Is it completely farfetched based on how last year turned out? No.
Click to expand...


I still think one of those teams lays an egg in the conference this year. I hope so at least. Having a Purdue or Iowa meltdown only helps us...
 

That is 9 bowl teams + Ohio State + Penn State.

That would be ridiculous depth for a conference if it is accurate.


Although I think that has been the case in the Big Ten lately. Usually 10+ top 60 teams...the issue being not really any top 4 teams.
 

Preseason polls are bad enough.

Preseason bowl projections are absurd.
 

Rosemountian said:
That is 9 bowl teams + Ohio State + Penn State.

That would be ridiculous depth for a conference if it is accurate.


Although I think that has been the case in the Big Ten lately. Usually 10+ top 60 teams...the issue being not really any top 4 teams.
Click to expand...

As usual Rosemountain is part of the 10% that never gets the word. I will try one more time. In order to play in a bowl game you have to win 6 games. If you then have an easy non-conference schedule (which is the case for most Big Ten teams) and you win all 4 games then you only need to win 2 of your 8 conference games or just 25% to go to a bowl game. This is not a major hurdle. It is also why most Big Ten coaches want to have a week non-conference schedule.

Do the math first next time Rosemountain before you comment.
 



Why are you so angry killjoy?
You don't think 11 teams potentially having 6 wins is a big deal?

The SEC had 9 last year.
The big 12 had 8.

If the big ten got 9 bowl teams they likely have 11 teams with 6+ wins. That would be an amazing accomplishment.
 

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