Thumbnail Resumes of the 5 B1G Bubble Teams

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SelectionSunday

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Please note, I don't consider Michigan a bubble team (I have UM a lock) but some do, so I've included here. Conversely, most bracketologists consider Northwestern a lock but I don't, so also included here.

Also note, the top 5 RPI teams in the B1G are Purdue (19), Minnesota (20), Maryland (24), Wisconsin (38), and Michigan (46).

ILLINOIS
RPI: #58
KenPom: #68
KPI: #50
Overall SOS: #24
Non-Conference SOS: #46
Record vs. RPI Top 25: 1-6
Record vs. RPI Top 50: 3-8
Record vs. RPI Top 100: 11-12
Road Record: 3-6
Record vs. Top 4 Seeds In B1G Tournament: 0-5
Record vs. Top 5 RPI Teams In B1G: 1-6
RPI Top 50 Wins (3): #23 vs. VCU, #46 Michigan, #49 Michigan State

IOWA
RPI: #72
KenPom: #67
KPI: #56
Overall SOS: #47
Non-Conference SOS: #142
Record vs. RPI Top 25: 2-5
Record vs. RPI Top 50: 5-7
Record vs. RPI Top 100: 9-11
Road Record: 3-7
Record vs. Top 4 Seeds In B1G Tournament: 3-3
Record vs. Top 5 RPI Teams In B1G: 4-3
RPI Top 50 Wins (5): #19 Purdue, #24 @ Maryland, #28 Iowa State, #38 @ Wisconsin, #46 Michigan

MICHIGAN
RPI: #46
KenPom: #25
KPI: #34
Overall SOS: #35
Non-Conference SOS: #86
Record vs. RPI Top 25: 2-3
Record vs. RPI Top 50: 4-7
Record vs. RPI Top 100: 11-11
Road Record: 3-8
Record vs. Top 4 Seeds In B1G Tournament: 2-3
Record vs. Top 5 RPI Teams In B1G: 2-3
RPI Top 50 Wins (4): #18 vs. SMU, #19 Purdue, #38 Wisconsin, #49 Michigan State

MICHIGAN STATE
RPI: #49
KenPom: #50
KPI: #43
Overall SOS: #10
Non-Conference SOS: #20
Record vs. RPI Top 25: 2-7
Record vs. RPI Top 50: 5-8
Record vs. RPI Top 100: 11-12
Road Record: 2-7
Record vs. Top 4 Seeds In B1G Tournament: 3-3
Record vs. Top 5 RPI Teams In B1G: 4-4
RPI Top 50 Wins (5): #20 @ Minnesota, #20 Minnesota, #27 vs. Wichita State, #38 Wisconsin, #46 Michigan

NORTHWESTERN
RPI: #54
KenPom: #37
KPI: #41
Overall SOS: #62
Non-Conference SOS: #151
Record vs. RPI Top 25: 1-6
Record vs. RPI Top 50: 4-7
Record vs. RPI Top 100: 10-10
Road Record: 5-5
Record vs. Top 4 Seeds In B1G Tournament: 1-4
Record vs. Top 5 RPI Teams In B1G: 2-4
RPI Top 50 Wins (4): #21 vs. Dayton, #34 Wake Forest, #38 @ Wisconsin, #46 Michigan
 

SelectionSunday said:
Please note, I don't consider Michigan a bubble team (I have UM a lock) but some do, so I've included here. Conversely, most bracketologists consider Northwestern a lock but I don't, so also included here.

Also note, the top 5 RPI teams in the B1G are Purdue (19), Minnesota (20), Maryland (24), Wisconsin (38), and Michigan (46).

ILLINOIS
RPI: #58
KenPom: #68
KPI: #50
Overall SOS: #24
Non-Conference SOS: #46
Record vs. RPI Top 25: 1-6
Record vs. RPI Top 50: 3-8
Record vs. RPI Top 100: 11-12
Road Record: 3-6
Record vs. Top 4 Seeds In B1G Tournament: 0-5
Record vs. Top 5 RPI Teams In B1G: 1-6
RPI Top 50 Wins (3): #23 vs. VCU, #46 Michigan, #49 Michigan State

IOWA
RPI: #72
KenPom: #67
KPI: #56
Overall SOS: #47
Non-Conference SOS: #142
Record vs. RPI Top 25: 2-5
Record vs. RPI Top 50: 5-7
Record vs. RPI Top 100: 9-11
Road Record: 3-7
Record vs. Top 4 Seeds In B1G Tournament: 3-3
Record vs. Top 5 RPI Teams In B1G: 4-3
RPI Top 50 Wins (5): #19 Purdue, #24 @ Maryland, #28 Iowa State, #38 @ Wisconsin, #46 Michigan

MICHIGAN
RPI: #46
KenPom: #25
KPI: #34
Overall SOS: #35
Non-Conference SOS: #86
Record vs. RPI Top 25: 2-3
Record vs. RPI Top 50: 4-7
Record vs. RPI Top 100: 11-11
Road Record: 3-8
Record vs. Top 4 Seeds In B1G Tournament: 2-3
Record vs. Top 5 RPI Teams In B1G: 2-3
RPI Top 50 Wins (4): #18 vs. SMU, #19 Purdue, #38 Wisconsin, #49 Michigan State

MICHIGAN STATE
RPI: #49
KenPom: #50
KPI: #43
Overall SOS: #10
Non-Conference SOS: #20
Record vs. RPI Top 25: 2-7
Record vs. RPI Top 50: 5-8
Record vs. RPI Top 100: 11-12
Road Record: 2-7
Record vs. Top 4 Seeds In B1G Tournament: 3-3
Record vs. Top 5 RPI Teams In B1G: 4-4
RPI Top 50 Wins (5): #20 @ Minnesota, #20 Minnesota, #27 vs. Wichita State, #38 Wisconsin, #46 Michigan

NORTHWESTERN
RPI: #54
KenPom: #37
KPI: #41
Overall SOS: #62
Non-Conference SOS: #151
Record vs. RPI Top 25: 1-6
Record vs. RPI Top 50: 4-7
Record vs. RPI Top 100: 10-10
Road Record: 5-5
Record vs. Top 4 Seeds In B1G Tournament: 1-4
Record vs. Top 5 RPI Teams In B1G: 2-4
RPI Top 50 Wins (4): #21 vs. Dayton, #34 Wake Forest, #38 @ Wisconsin, #46 Michigan
Click to expand...

Iowa's big issue is that non-conference SOS was weak.
Their 10th best win is against #161
And they have 13 losses.

I have MSU closer to the bubble than NW.

I'd rank them:
Michigan
gap
NW
MSU
big gap
Illinois
gap
Iowa

NW lost to:
12
19
19
20
24
25
49
58
58
81


MSU lost to:
6
7
9
14
19
19
24
46
58
80
81
99
140
 

37score said:
Iowa's big issue is that non-conference SOS was weak.
Their 10th best win is against #161
And they have 13 losses.

I have MSU closer to the bubble than NW.

I'd rank them:
Michigan
gap
NW
MSU
big gap
Illinois
gap
Iowa

NW lost to:
12
19
19
20
24
25
49
58
58
81


MSU lost to:
6
7
9
14
19
19
24
46
58
80
81
99
140
Click to expand...

Agree with your B1G pecking order, except I'd flip NW & MSU, and flip Ill & Iowa. I like top-50 road wins. Though they swept Iowa, Illinois only one of these five without one.

1 Mich
2 MSU
3 NW

(agree with your gap)

4 Iowa
5 Ill
 

So why does Joe Lunardi keep saying that Illinois is not only one of the first four out, but the first team out? I just don't see how they can be anywhere close to making the tournament. Their record just doesn't support it.
 

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