This & That: Projected BTT Bracket, Bubble Comparison

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SelectionSunday

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This time I've projected ahead, predicting the remaining Big Ten games. FWIW, I got the Gophers to 8-10 with wins over Penn State and Nebraska. ... flipped a coin (Nebraska or Purdue) on where the Gophers' 8th win would come from. Just can't see this team winning back to back road games, especially knowing there's going to be a ton of pressure on the Gophers to win one or both of 'em.

1st Round (Thursday, March 14)
11 a.m. (BTN) -- #8 GOPHERS (8-10) vs. #9 Purdue (7-11)
1:25 p.m. (BTN) -- #5 Ohio State (11-7) vs. #12 Penn State (1-17)
5:30 p.m. (ESPN2) -- #7 Illinois (8-10) vs. #10 Northwestern (4-14)
7:55 p.m. (ESPN2) -- #6 Iowa (10-8) vs. #11 Nebraska (3-15)

Quarterfinals (Friday, March 15)
11 a.m. (ESPN) -- #1 Indiana (15-3) vs. GOPHERS/Purdue winner
1:25 p.m. (ESPN) -- #4 Wisconsin (13-5) vs. Ohio State/Penn State winner
5:30 p.m. (BTN) -- #2 Michigan (14-4) vs. Illinois/Northwestern winner
7:55 p.m. (BTN) -- #3 Michigan State (14-4) vs. Iowa/Nebraska winner

Bubble Comparison
For argument's sake, let's say the Gophers finish 8-10, which -- given their late-season struggles -- might put them squarely on the bubble heading to Chicago. For comparsion's sake, first we'll take a look at the resumes of 6 teams the Gophers may share the bubble with (or teams similar to them) -- 2 from the Power 6 (Cal and Villanova), 2 non-1st place teams from outside the Power 6 (Saint Mary's and Temple), and 2 from 1-bid leagues (Belmont, Middle Tennessee) who, if they don't win their conference tourney, have the potential to steal a bid.

BELMONT (bid-stealer potential)
Record: 19-6, 12-2 Ohio Valley
RPI: #28
Overall Strength of Schedule (SOS): #79
Nonconference SOS: #4
Last 10: 8-2
Road/Neutral Record vs. RPI Top 100: 2-3
Record vs. RPI Top 50: 1-2
Record vs. RPI Top 100: 6-3
Best 3 RPI Wins/Total: #24 Middle Tennessee, @ #68 Stanford, #71 Eastern Kentucky (total = 163)
Bad Losses (RPI 101+): 3 (@ #103 Murray State, @ #105 UCF, vs. #148 Northeastern)

CAL
Record: 17-9, 9-5 Pac 12
RPI: #45
Overall Strength of Schedule (SOS): #27
Nonconference SOS: #78
Last 10: 7-3
Road/Neutral Record vs. RPI Top 100: 4-5
Record vs. RPI Top 50: 4-5
Record vs. RPI Top 100: 7-9
Best 3 RPI Wins/Total: @ #12 Arizona, #39 UCLA, @ #50 Oregon (total = 101)
Bad Losses (RPI 101+): none

MIDDLE TENNESSEE (bid-stealer potential)
Record: 24-4, 16-1 Sun Belt
RPI: #24
Overall Strength of Schedule (SOS): #107
Nonconference SOS: #14
Last 10: 10-0
Road/Neutral Record vs. RPI Top 100: 0-3
Record vs. RPI Top 50: 0-2
Record vs. RPI Top 100: 2-3
Best 3 RPI Wins/Total: #56 Ole Miss, #88 Tennessee State, @ #105 UCF (total = 249)
Bad Losses (RPI 101+): 1 (@ #142 Arkansas State)

SAINT MARY'S
Record: 22-5, 12-2 WCC
RPI: #48
Overall Strength of Schedule (SOS): #124
Nonconference SOS: #211
Last 10: 9-1
Road/Neutral Record vs. RPI Top 100: 2-2
Record vs. RPI Top 50: 0-2
Record vs. RPI Top 100: 4-3
Best 3 RPI Wins/Total: @ #59 BYU, #59 BYU, @ #91 Santa Clara (total = 209)
Bad Losses (RPI 101+): 2 (vs. #132 Pacific, vs. #138 Georgia Tech)

TEMPLE
Record: 18-8, 7-5 A-10
RPI: #47
Overall Strength of Schedule (SOS): #49
Nonconference SOS: #83
Last 10: 6-4
Road/Neutral Record vs. RPI Top 100: 3-5
Record vs. RPI Top 50: 3-3
Record vs. RPI Top 100: 7-5
Best 3 RPI Wins/Total: vs. #10 Syracuse, #37 LaSalle, #40 Saint Louis (total = 87)
Bad Losses (RPI 101+): 3 (#101 Canisius, #113 Saint Bonaventure, #211 Duquesne)

VILLANOVA
Record: 16-10, 8-6 Big East
RPI: #55
Overall Strength of Schedule (SOS): #35
Nonconference SOS: #167
Last 10: 6-4
Road/Neutral Record vs. RPI Top 100: 1-6
Record vs. RPI Top 50: 3-6
Record vs. RPI Top 100: 6-9
Best 3 RPI Wins/Total: #6 Louisville, #10 Syracuse, @ #29 UConn (total = 45)
Bad Losses (RPI 101+): 1 (#254 Columbia)

GOPHERS
Record: 18-9, 6-8 Big 10
RPI: #15
Overall Strength of Schedule (SOS): #1
Nonconference SOS: #12
Last 10: 3-7
Road/Neutral Record vs. RPI Top 100: 5-6
Record vs. RPI Top 50: 4-7
Record vs. RPI Top 100: 12-8
Best 3 RPI Wins/Total: #7 Michigan State, vs. #20 Memphis, #23 Wisconsin (total = 50)
Bad Losses (RPI 101+): 1 (@ #121 Northwestern)

These resumes make it glaringly obvious. ... the more I look at this every day, 8-10 in all likelihood gets the Gophers in the tournament (maybe with room to spare?), despite the late-season swoon. I just can't see a 8-10 team from what is considered the #1 conference in the country, a team with perhaps the top overall SOS and a top-15 nonconference SOS (something the Selection Committee very much emphasizes), and with that number of top-50 and top-100 wins getting left out, especially considering the resumes they'll be competing against.

Ditto for Illinois if it finishes 8-10.

If the Gophers fail to make the tournament, in terms of pi**ing a perfectly suitable at-large resume down one's leg (solid in pretty much every way teams are evaluated, save for the epic collapse), since I've been doing this (1991-92 season) it would go down as one of the biggest meltdowns in "bubble" history.
 

SelectionSunday said:
This time I've projected ahead, predicting the remaining Big Ten games. FWIW, I got the Gophers to 8-10 with wins over Penn State and Nebraska. ... flipped a coin (Nebraska or Purdue) on where the Gophers' 8th win would come from. Just can't see this team winning back to back road games, especially knowing there's going to be a ton of pressure on the Gophers to win one or both of 'em.

1st Round (Thursday, March 14)
11 a.m. (BTN) -- #8 GOPHERS (8-10) vs. #9 Purdue (7-11)
1:25 p.m. (BTN) -- #5 Ohio State (11-7) vs. #12 Penn State (1-17)
5:30 p.m. (ESPN2) -- #7 Illinois (8-10) vs. #10 Northwestern (4-14)
7:55 p.m. (ESPN2) -- #6 Iowa (10-8) vs. #11 Nebraska (3-15)

Quarterfinals (Friday, March 15)
11 a.m. (ESPN) -- #1 Indiana (15-3) vs. GOPHERS/Purdue winner
1:25 p.m. (ESPN) -- #4 Wisconsin (13-5) vs. Ohio State/Penn State winner
5:30 p.m. (BTN) -- #2 Michigan (14-4) vs. Illinois/Northwestern winner
7:55 p.m. (BTN) -- #3 Michigan State (14-4) vs. Iowa/Nebraska winner

Bubble Comparison
For argument's sake, let's say the Gophers finish 8-10, which -- given their late-season struggles -- might put them squarely on the bubble heading to Chicago. For comparsion's sake, first we'll take a look at the resumes of 6 teams the Gophers may share the bubble with (or teams similar to them) -- 2 from the Power 6 (Cal and Villanova), 2 non-1st place teams from outside the Power 6 (Saint Mary's and Temple), and 2 from 1-bid leagues (Belmont, Middle Tennessee) who, if they don't win their conference tourney, have the potential to steal a bid.

BELMONT
Record: 19-6, 12-2 Ohio Valley
RPI: #28
Overall Strength of Schedule (SOS): #79
Nonconference SOS: #4
Last 10: 8-2
Road/Neutral Record vs. RPI Top 100: 2-3
Record vs. RPI Top 50: 1-2
Record vs. RPI Top 100: 6-3
Best 3 RPI Wins/Total: #24 Middle Tennessee, @ #68 Stanford, #71 Eastern Kentucky (total = 163)
Bad Losses (RPI 101+): 3 (@ #103 Murray State, @ #105 UCF, vs. #148 Northeastern)

CAL
Record: 17-9, 9-5 Pac 12
RPI: #45
Overall Strength of Schedule (SOS): #27
Nonconference SOS: #78
Last 10: 7-3
Road/Neutral Record vs. RPI Top 100: 4-5
Record vs. RPI Top 50: 4-5
Record vs. RPI Top 100: 7-9
Best 3 RPI Wins/Total: @ #12 Arizona, #39 UCLA, @ #50 Oregon (total = 101)
Bad Losses (RPI 101+): none

MIDDLE TENNESSEE
Record: 24-4, 16-1 Sun Belt
RPI: #24
Overall Strength of Schedule (SOS): #107
Nonconference SOS: #14
Last 10: 10-0
Road/Neutral Record vs. RPI Top 100: 0-3
Record vs. RPI Top 50: 0-2
Record vs. RPI Top 100: 2-3
Best 3 RPI Wins/Total: #56 Ole Miss, #88 Tennessee State, @ #105 UCF (total = 249)
Bad Losses (RPI 101+): 1 (@ #142 Arkansas State)

SAINT MARY'S
Record: 22-5, 12-2 WCC
RPI: #48
Overall Strength of Schedule (SOS): #124
Nonconference SOS: #211
Last 10: 9-1
Road/Neutral Record vs. RPI Top 100: 2-2
Record vs. RPI Top 50: 0-2
Record vs. RPI Top 100: 4-3
Best 3 RPI Wins/Total: @ #59 BYU, #59 BYU, @ #91 Santa Clara (total = 209)
Bad Losses (RPI 101+): 2 (vs. #132 Pacific, vs. #138 Georgia Tech)

TEMPLE
Record: 18-8, 7-5 A-10
RPI: #47
Overall Strength of Schedule (SOS): #49
Nonconference SOS: #83
Last 10: 6-4
Road/Neutral Record vs. RPI Top 100: 3-5
Record vs. RPI Top 50: 3-3
Record vs. RPI Top 100: 7-5
Best 3 RPI Wins/Total: vs. #10 Syracuse, #37 LaSalle, #40 Saint Louis (total = 87)
Bad Losses (RPI 101+): 3 (#101 Canisius, #113 Saint Bonaventure, #211 Duquesne)

VILLANOVA
Record: 16-10, 8-6 Big East
RPI: #55
Overall Strength of Schedule (SOS): #35
Nonconference SOS: #167
Last 10: 6-4
Road/Neutral Record vs. RPI Top 100: 1-6
Record vs. RPI Top 50: 3-6
Record vs. RPI Top 100: 6-9
Best 3 RPI Wins/Total: #6 Louisville, #10 Syracuse, @ #29 UConn (total = 45)
Bad Losses (RPI 101+): 1 (#254 Columbia)

GOPHERS
Record: 18-9, 6-8 Big 10
RPI: #15
Overall Strength of Schedule (SOS): #1
Nonconference SOS: #12
Last 10: 3-7
Road/Neutral Record vs. RPI Top 100: 5-6
Record vs. RPI Top 50: 4-7
Record vs. RPI Top 100: 12-8
Best 3 RPI Wins/Total: #7 Michigan State, vs. #20 Memphis, #23 Wisconsin (total = 50)
Bad Losses (RPI 101+): 1 (@ #121 Northwestern)

These resumes make it glaringly obvious. ... the more I look at this every day, 8-10 in all likelihood gets the Gophers in the tournament (maybe with room to spare?), despite the late-season swoon. I just can't see a 8-10 team from what is considered the #1 conference in the country, a team with perhaps the top overall SOS and a top-15 nonconference SOS, and with that number of top-50 and top-100 wins getting left out, especially considering the resumes they'll be competing against.

Ditto for Illinois if it finishes 8-10.

If the Gophers fail to make the tournament, in terms of pi**ing a perfectly suitable at-large resume down one's leg (solid in pretty much every way teams are evaluated save for the epic collapse), since I've been doing this (1991-92 season) it would go down as one of the biggest meltdowns in "bubble" history.
Click to expand...

Good stuff.. lets hope we get to 9 wins the old fashioned way (win last three) and make everyone breathe easy. SS, on another note.. I logged onto my GopherSports.com account and saw my seats for the BTT. Nobody called so I was curious.. 200 level. I have never been to the BTT before so I am excited. Plus, the family gets to hang out in Chicago.. not a bad deal.
 

You'll enjoy it, Rouser. The best day of the tournament is the quarterfinals. 8 fan bases thinking they still have a chance. I just hope the Gophers are one of the 8!

200 level is a good spot to be at the United Center. Unless things have changed in the last 5 years, it's the only level with TVs in the lobby, offering a chance to catch up on other games when there's a break in the action. And if my memory is correct, no one can sneak into the 200 level unless they have their ticket stub. That's not the case with the 100 level (or 300, obviously).

My seats are in the 300 level, so I'm not pleased with the ticket office right now. Will have to sneak around and through some ushers in the 100 level to sit in better seats. I was told we'll receive our tickets late this week or early next week.
 


SS, that's my conclusion, too. I've started looking at things in prep for my posse's NCAA Tournament pool, and it's hard to imagine the Gophers falling far enough in these indexes to get themselves kicked out of consideration. (That's why I continue to say that, no matter how bad the team has looked, it will still not be a slam dunk for Teague to justify a firing and seven-figure buyout when the squad goes to the Tourney.)

Belmont is good. You know, they were good last year and got under-seeded by a lot. Had they not had to go against a 3-seed in the first round, they could have won a game and then who knows what else.
 


Yep, Belmont is good, and of the potential bid-stealers other than Memphis (Akron, Louisiana Tech, Middle Tennessee) I think they're the one most likely to get a bid if they don't win their conference tournament, especially if they add a win over Ohio to their resume this weekend. They have enough solid wins -- Middle Tennessee, @ Stanford, South Dakota State, Eastern Kentucky twice -- and that #4 nonconference SOS (including losses @ Kansas and VCU) will be noticed.
 

Thanks SS. Understanding is peace of mind. We are either going to limp in at 8-10 or better (which I would take at this point) or we are going to get started on a new era, or both. I can live with this.

Bad Gopher- Failing to make the tournament would make it a quantitative no brainer firing. Making the tournament will make it a qualitatitive firing that will take into account the mood and play of the team and mood of the fans. Even with making the tournament, unless Tubby is deemed the best long term option for results and for marketing, a good AD wields the axe.
 

SelectionSunday said:
This time I've projected ahead, predicting the remaining Big Ten games. FWIW, I got the Gophers to 8-10 with wins over Penn State and Nebraska. ... flipped a coin (Nebraska or Purdue) on where the Gophers' 8th win would come from. Just can't see this team winning back to back road games, especially knowing there's going to be a ton of pressure on the Gophers to win one or both of 'em.

1st Round (Thursday, March 14)
11 a.m. (BTN) -- #8 GOPHERS (8-10) vs. #9 Purdue (7-11)
1:25 p.m. (BTN) -- #5 Ohio State (11-7) vs. #12 Penn State (1-17)
5:30 p.m. (ESPN2) -- #7 Illinois (8-10) vs. #10 Northwestern (4-14)
7:55 p.m. (ESPN2) -- #6 Iowa (10-8) vs. #11 Nebraska (3-15)

Quarterfinals (Friday, March 15)
11 a.m. (ESPN) -- #1 Indiana (15-3) vs. GOPHERS/Purdue winner
1:25 p.m. (ESPN) -- #4 Wisconsin (13-5) vs. Ohio State/Penn State winner
5:30 p.m. (BTN) -- #2 Michigan (14-4) vs. Illinois/Northwestern winner
7:55 p.m. (BTN) -- #3 Michigan State (14-4) vs. Iowa/Nebraska winner

Bubble Comparison
For argument's sake, let's say the Gophers finish 8-10, which -- given their late-season struggles -- might put them squarely on the bubble heading to Chicago. For comparsion's sake, first we'll take a look at the resumes of 6 teams the Gophers may share the bubble with (or teams similar to them) -- 2 from the Power 6 (Cal and Villanova), 2 non-1st place teams from outside the Power 6 (Saint Mary's and Temple), and 2 from 1-bid leagues (Belmont, Middle Tennessee) who, if they don't win their conference tourney, have the potential to steal a bid.

BELMONT (bid-stealer potential)
Record: 19-6, 12-2 Ohio Valley
RPI: #28
Overall Strength of Schedule (SOS): #79
Nonconference SOS: #4
Last 10: 8-2
Road/Neutral Record vs. RPI Top 100: 2-3
Record vs. RPI Top 50: 1-2
Record vs. RPI Top 100: 6-3
Best 3 RPI Wins/Total: #24 Middle Tennessee, @ #68 Stanford, #71 Eastern Kentucky (total = 163)
Bad Losses (RPI 101+): 3 (@ #103 Murray State, @ #105 UCF, vs. #148 Northeastern)

CAL
Record: 17-9, 9-5 Pac 12
RPI: #45
Overall Strength of Schedule (SOS): #27
Nonconference SOS: #78
Last 10: 7-3
Road/Neutral Record vs. RPI Top 100: 4-5
Record vs. RPI Top 50: 4-5
Record vs. RPI Top 100: 7-9
Best 3 RPI Wins/Total: @ #12 Arizona, #39 UCLA, @ #50 Oregon (total = 101)
Bad Losses (RPI 101+): none

MIDDLE TENNESSEE (bid-stealer potential)
Record: 24-4, 16-1 Sun Belt
RPI: #24
Overall Strength of Schedule (SOS): #107
Nonconference SOS: #14
Last 10: 10-0
Road/Neutral Record vs. RPI Top 100: 0-3
Record vs. RPI Top 50: 0-2
Record vs. RPI Top 100: 2-3
Best 3 RPI Wins/Total: #56 Ole Miss, #88 Tennessee State, @ #105 UCF (total = 249)
Bad Losses (RPI 101+): 1 (@ #142 Arkansas State)

SAINT MARY'S
Record: 22-5, 12-2 WCC
RPI: #48
Overall Strength of Schedule (SOS): #124
Nonconference SOS: #211
Last 10: 9-1
Road/Neutral Record vs. RPI Top 100: 2-2
Record vs. RPI Top 50: 0-2
Record vs. RPI Top 100: 4-3
Best 3 RPI Wins/Total: @ #59 BYU, #59 BYU, @ #91 Santa Clara (total = 209)
Bad Losses (RPI 101+): 2 (vs. #132 Pacific, vs. #138 Georgia Tech)

TEMPLE
Record: 18-8, 7-5 A-10
RPI: #47
Overall Strength of Schedule (SOS): #49
Nonconference SOS: #83
Last 10: 6-4
Road/Neutral Record vs. RPI Top 100: 3-5
Record vs. RPI Top 50: 3-3
Record vs. RPI Top 100: 7-5
Best 3 RPI Wins/Total: vs. #10 Syracuse, #37 LaSalle, #40 Saint Louis (total = 87)
Bad Losses (RPI 101+): 3 (#101 Canisius, #113 Saint Bonaventure, #211 Duquesne)

VILLANOVA
Record: 16-10, 8-6 Big East
RPI: #55
Overall Strength of Schedule (SOS): #35
Nonconference SOS: #167
Last 10: 6-4
Road/Neutral Record vs. RPI Top 100: 1-6
Record vs. RPI Top 50: 3-6
Record vs. RPI Top 100: 6-9
Best 3 RPI Wins/Total: #6 Louisville, #10 Syracuse, @ #29 UConn (total = 45)
Bad Losses (RPI 101+): 1 (#254 Columbia)

GOPHERS
Record: 18-9, 6-8 Big 10
RPI: #15
Overall Strength of Schedule (SOS): #1
Nonconference SOS: #12
Last 10: 3-7
Road/Neutral Record vs. RPI Top 100: 5-6
Record vs. RPI Top 50: 4-7
Record vs. RPI Top 100: 12-8
Best 3 RPI Wins/Total: #7 Michigan State, vs. #20 Memphis, #23 Wisconsin (total = 50)
Bad Losses (RPI 101+): 1 (@ #121 Northwestern)

These resumes make it glaringly obvious. ... the more I look at this every day, 8-10 in all likelihood gets the Gophers in the tournament (maybe with room to spare?), despite the late-season swoon. I just can't see a 8-10 team from what is considered the #1 conference in the country, a team with perhaps the top overall SOS and a top-15 nonconference SOS (something the Selection Committee very much emphasizes), and with that number of top-50 and top-100 wins getting left out, especially considering the resumes they'll be competing against.

Ditto for Illinois if it finishes 8-10.

If the Gophers fail to make the tournament, in terms of pi**ing a perfectly suitable at-large resume down one's leg (solid in pretty much every way teams are evaluated, save for the epic collapse), since I've been doing this (1991-92 season) it would go down as one of the biggest meltdowns in "bubble" history.
Click to expand...
The only difference I have with this is I think the Gophers, Illinois, and Iowa all end up 9-9 in the conference and tied for 6th place and that shifts a few things around.

SS, If Iowa finishes 9-9 in the conference and then gets a 1st round win in Chicago do you think they end up getting in?
 

Goldy Gopher said:
SS, If Iowa finishes 9-9 in the conference and then gets a 1st round win in Chicago do you think they end up getting in?
Click to expand...

That's a tough call, but I'd say no. 9-9 for the Hawkeyes probably means they lost at home to Illinois, and they can't afford that. If they're 9-9, my hunch is they'd need to knock off one of the Big Boys in the quarterfinals to feel pretty decent about their chances. Iowa's nonconference SOS (#324) puts them in great peril. The Selection Committee frowns upon weak nonconference schedules, whether you're a major, mid-major, or small major.
 



SelectionSunday said:
That's a tough call, but I'd say no. 9-9 for the Hawkeyes probably means they lost at home to Illinois, and they can't afford that. If they're 9-9, my hunch is they'd need to knock off one of the Big Boys in the quarterfinals to feel pretty decent about their chances. Iowa's nonconference SOS (#324) puts them in great peril. The Selection Committee frowns upon weak nonconference schedules, whether you're a major, mid-major, or small major.
Click to expand...
That's kind of the way I was thinking. They have the look of a tournament team and go .500 in the best conference in the nation but then you look at how bad the nonconference schedule was and it raises some questions. I think they will lose to Illinois at home and will be one of the more interesting cases for the selection committee.
 

Goldy Gopher said:
. ... They have the look of a tournament team and go .500 in the best conference in the nation but then you look at how bad the nonconference schedule was and it raises some questions.
Click to expand...

Well said.

If you asked me who'd be a much more dangerous team to play in the tournament -- Iowa or the Gophers -- without question the answer would be the Hawkeyes.

If you asked me who is much more deserving of receiving a bid based on their season-long performance -- Iowa or the Gophers -- without question the answer would be the Gophers.

Those are the tricky little things the committee has to decide when they're picking away at those final few spots.
 

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