There is Still Time! Realistic Outlook

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TrueGopherFballfan#1

TrueGopherFballfan#1

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The Gophers are now 14-9(3-7) and the question is can they still comeback from a devastating start to conference play. Technically yes but can they really? Of course if they win out which is highly unlikely they can punch their ticket to the tourney but that is very unrealistic at this point. Realistically speaking how could the gophers pop back in to the tournament conversation. According to some RPI simulations if the gophers were to finish 20-11(9-9), their final RPI would be in the 47-50 range with a final SOS of about 40-45. That would definitely be a resume that could just make it into the big dance but could the Gophers realistically finish .500 in the Big Ten after the start they had? Possibly. It looks a little iffy at this point but let's break the rest of the schedule down. They have 8 games remaining. Purdue, @Iowa, @Indiana, Northwestern, @Wisconsin, @Michigan St., Wisconsin, Penn St. If Minnesota were to finish 9-9 they will have to win their last 4 home games of the season or else it would be very hard to get 3 or possibly win all 4 remaining road games. Purdue, Northwestern, and Penn St are very winnable knowing how good they have played at home. Wisconsin will be tough even at Williams but that late in the season, it will be buzzing in Williams and it would be very hard for the Badgers to come out there with a win just like last year. You take those 4 wins the Gophers have 7 wins in conference play. The gophers will also need to win 2 of their last 4 road games. These road games will be very tough especially Wisconsin but we know this a Gopher team that can keep up with Iowa or possibly an inconsistent Michigan St. team that we went into OT last year with and quite possibly come out of those places with wins. Indiana would be tough but we could possibly keep up with them too. Wisconsin might be a loss already knowing how good they are especially at Kohl Center but looking at the other 3 road opponents the Gophers do have a reasonable chance of pulling off at least 2 of those. With all this adding up, the Gophers could finish 9-9 in conference play and maybe just maybe have a good enough resume to get into the tourney. We may have to win a Big Ten tourney game at that point but it would be better than having to win the whole Big Ten tourney to even make the big dance. It would be hard but it is possible. Remember Illinois 2 years ago. They were 2-7 in conference play having high expectations after a good NCONF season and they were blowing close games too. Then something just snapped and they started winning and ended up making the Tourney as a 7th or 8th seed. The Gophers can do it but it will take a lot of work.
 

Beat Purdue. Win @ Iowa. Then we can talk about the rest.
 

howeda7 said:
Beat Purdue. Win @ Iowa. Then we can talk about the rest.
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Pretty sure there's a better chance pigs will fly than us beating Iowa on the road this month. I don't see this team winning a road game this year.
 

GameDay said:
Pretty sure there's a better chance pigs will fly than us beating Iowa on the road this month. I don't see this team winning a road game this year.
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Iowa doesn't impress me that much. Certainly, it's not likely. But the ball has to bounce their way one of these days...
 

Yeah the gophers have not been that good on the road but part of that has just been we have not been that lucky. We lost all but one of our road games within like 4 points. The ball has to bounce our way in at least one of those games maybe even 2. We just need some luck on our side.
 


TrueGopherFballfan#1 said:
Yeah the gophers have not been that good on the road but part of that has just been we have not been that lucky. We lost all but one of our road games within like 4 points. The ball has to bounce our way in at least one of those games maybe even 2. We just need some luck on our side.
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Its not luck. We have failed to execute in close game situations on the road. Wins aren't just something that eventually happen to you if you give it enough tries, they need to be earned.
 

bleedsmaroonandgold said:
Its not luck. We have failed to execute in close game situations on the road. Wins aren't just something that eventually happen to you if you give it enough tries, they need to be earned.
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This is very true but I do think they can pull off 2 road games out of the remaining 4 in which they will execute and be the team that wins by 3 or 4. They cannot just go 0-9 on the road in big ten play, losing those games by less than 4 points. They have to win at least a couple and be on the winning side for a change.
 

TrueGopherFballfan#1 said:
They have 8 games remaining. Purdue, @Iowa, @Indiana, Northwestern, @Wisconsin, @Michigan St., Wisconsin, Penn St.
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It's going to be a tough road to finish up. We don't match-up well against Iowa. Indiana will be interesting. They have played better than I expected, but the Gophers may have a shot against them. I don't see us winning at Madison nor at the Barn against this years Badger team. Michigan St. is down this year, but it will be tough to beat them in Lansing. It's tough to see us winning a game on the road for the remainder of the season. Indiana seems like the best chance.
 

TrueGopherFballfan#1 said:
Yeah the gophers have not been that good on the road but part of that has just been we have not been that lucky. We lost all but one of our road games within like 4 points. The ball has to bounce our way in at least one of those games maybe even 2. We just need some luck on our side.
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To hope for some "luck" that this team will outperform their current level of play is a stretch. One could argue that there were/are things that can be executed better or defensed better but to hope for luck while expecting a team to play better than they have is equivalent to sleeping through a semester worth of classes and "hoping" that when you take the final the answers will magically appear.

I do agree that the gophers got some bad bounces in the context of the each game and some good ones too, but in order to sniff the NCAA tournament and play to a level that is closer to their pre-season expectations, the gophers need execution instead of luck.
 



My guess is 7 big ten wins this year. Could have easily been 9-9 or better if we had played better to start the season.
 


Such a frustrating season. Even if we win 2 out of these games we'd be sitting at 5-5 and still have a decent chance at the tourney: @Purdue, vs Iowa, vs Ohio State, @Michigan, @Nebraska, @Penn State. Instead we're playing for the NIT. This team just isn't good enough on the road to go on a run.
 

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