This is a great post. I learned something, quite a few things actually. One question though, what is ADE?I'm sure you know what I'm about to say and just had a momentary lapse.
(1) No vaccine on earth prevents infections. The COVID vaccine is not an exception to this. If a vaccine is effective, it will provide a person's immune system a "head start" in mounting an effective response. And if your immunoresponse is sufficiently effective due to the vaccine or a previous illness or just plain good luck, you will become infected but not experience the illness (and you will clear the infection rapidly).
(2) There is a known mechanism - again not guesswork - wherein "leaky" vaccines (not all are, but the COVID vaccines are) create evolutionary pressure to generate variants. The reason is because a virus that mutates rapidly and is contagious responds as thus: (i) it mutates randomly in a vaccinated person; (ii) most of the mutational variations are killed off rapidly because of the person's "jump started" immunoresponse from the vaccine; (iii) the particular variations that are not killed off rapidly by virtue of the "jump started" immunoresponse are transmitted to the next vaccinated person before being killed off later; (iv) the next vaccinated person then begins his infection cycle with a mutational strain of the virus that is just a little better at evading a person's immunoresponse. And the cycle repeats. And with each iteration of the cycle, the virus becomes increasingly malign.
BTW - infection rates are an irrational metric for managing this particular pandemic. As stated before, vaccines cannot prevent infection - they jumpstart immune response. You can see this in the MA data - 64% fully vaccinated in the state. 73% of all cases are among the fully vaccinated. No prevention of infection. (A vaccine could largely eliminate a virus, but only if it isn't "leaky," and if the virus doesn't mutate rapidly, and if the virus doesn't have some sort of reservoir to sustain it. Obviously, if you can drive it toward extinction, then infection rates will go down - but not because a vaccine prevents infection - you are reducing the population of the virus, itself. This is not plausible here. The vaccines are leaky; the virus mutates and is quite communicable; and it has animal reservoirs.) We should look at outcomes instead. And there are several ways to get good outcomes. The trouble with applying a vaccine in this case to drive outcomes is that it also drives variants. And you will get a nightmare booster/variant combination sooner rather than later. ADE is real. And it is not always presented in subpopulations of <1%. We've seen 5%+ with other coronavirus vaccines. (God willing, we'd catch that in testing... but then we could end up with a strain for which there is no vaccine that does not generate outrageous levels of ADE.). The best course is to treat this other ways.