The Sagarin Predictions: Week 1

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Gopher07

Gopher07

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I know, these things are basically useless until probably week 5 or so, but it's always fun to keep tabs as the season goes.

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/fbt10.htm?loc=interstitialskip

This week:
Gophers #67, 70.39
3.08 added for homefield

Prediction:
@ MTSU -1.5 (W)
vs South Dakota -26 (W)
vs USC +17 (L)
vs Northern Illinois -9.5 (W)
vs Northwestern -2 (W)
@ Wisconsin +12.5 (L)
@ Purdue +4.5 (L)
vs Penn State +13 (L)
vs Ohio State +16 (L)
@ Michigan State +8.5 (L)
@ Illinois +1.5 (L)
vs Iowa +8.5 (L)

Final record: 4-8, seven game losing streak to end the season. Lets get to proving the numbers wrong.

BASED ON THE PREDICTED LINES:
Probable wins:
vs. South Dakota, vs. Northern Illinois

Probable losses:
vs USC, @ Wisconsin, vs Penn State, vs Ohio State, @ MSU, vs Iowa

Toss-ups:
@ MTSU, vs Northwestern, @ Purdue, @ Illinois
 

The Sagarin ratings are worthless until after the fourth game of the season. Until a record is established it's rated after last years results.
 


The one thing with our schedule that makes it so hard and could lead to a seven game losing streak is that all of the Gophers' match-up games, with the exception of NW, are on the road. The guys on the B10 preview show talked about this. I bet you that if the Ill., MSU and Purdue games were at Minn. we would likely be favored (probably not by much) to win all those games because we are pretty evenly matched talent-wise with these teams. However, because these games are on the road it is going to be more challenging for this team to win those games. I am not saying that we are going to have a 7 game losing streak, but if we have a couple of close losses at Wis., Purdue, then get blown out at PSU and OSU, it could snowball into something bad. Especially based on how this team has played towards the end of the season.
 



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