The Ohio State @ Gophers -- by the (RPI) numbers

[SelectionSunday]

The Ohio State (11-4, 1-2)
RPI: 91
Record vs. Top 50: 1-2
Record vs. Top 100: 2-3
Bottom-100 (#248-347) Wins: 6 (Alcorn State, Delaware State, James Madison, Lipscomb, Presbyterian, St. Francis-Pa.)
Bad Losses (#101+): 1 (Michigan)
Record vs. BCS Opponents: 3-3
Road/Neutral Record: 1-4
Average RPI of Nonconference Opponents: 194.416

Gophers (11-4, 2-1)
RPI: 51
Record vs. Top 50: 1-2
Record vs. Top 100: 1-4
Bottom-100 (#248-347) Wins: 2 (Northern Illinois, Utah Valley)
Bad Losses (#101+): none
Record vs. BCS Opponents: 2-3
Road/Neutral Record: 2-4
Average RPI of Nonconference Opponents: 157.25

The Call: Buckeyes 76, Gophers 71

 

[fan of Ray Williams]

I'm really hoping you're wrong on the call. Have to win these home games.

 

[SelectionSunday]

Agreed. Gophers must protect their home court. At absolute most they can probably afford to lose 2 games at The Barn this season. I don't want to first one (if there is one) to come prior to playing Michigan State at home.

The great thing about tomorrow's game is the Gophers can really put Ohio State -- a team we'll likely be competing with for a bid -- behind an early 8-ball, while clearly establishing ourselves ahead of them in the at-large pecking order. Conversely, the Bucks can do the same to us.

 

[fan of Ray Williams]

I think Matta will have Turner in there more than we suspect. He had him in against Indiana when the game was out of reach. Perhaps he was trying to work the rust off. I'm hoping the Gophers can win 8 at home. By the way, great job on doing this.

 

[Blizzard]

Not that it's very insightful but I think tomorrow will come down to defending the three and rebounding. I think the Gophers will shoot the lights out so I'm not so worried about that but they'll have to give the same rebounding effort they had against Purdue so be successful in this one. I have a pretty hard time seeing us lose.

 

[Art Vandelay]

Formula

Hodger, if I'm stealing this from you I apologize....can't remember where I first saw it.

+1 for a road win
-1 for a home loss
0 for a home win
0 for a road loss

Purdue +1
MSU +1
Gophers +1
Sconny +1
Michigan +1
Illinois 0
OSU 0
Indiana 0
NU -1
Iowa -2
PSU -2

The consensus around here is that 11-7 in conference play will likely earn an NCCA berth. 11-7 is the eqivalent of +2 and they're half way there with plenty of winnable road games left. The conference champ is usually around +5 or +6. The obvious key is to hold serve at home...

 

[SelectionSunday]

That's generally how I look at it Art. At the beginning of the season I always want the Gophers to steal one they're not supposed to win (whether it be home or road) before they lose one they're expected to win (tomorrow's home game vs. OSU qualifies). So far the Gophers are where they should be. It takes a lot of pressure off and increases the margin for error if the former happens first. That's why tomorrow is huge. I don't want to go into Breslin 2-2 and coming off a damaging home loss.

Of the remaining road games, any Gopher win other than Indiana and Penn State I'll consider it unexpected.

Of the remaining home games, win(s) over Michigan State and/or Purdue are the only ones I'd consider the Gophers "stealing one".