The NIL era - a before and after line with mixed levels of success for coaches/schools around the country

[Schnauzer]

Teams and programs rise and fall all the time. Someone gets the right coach or AD and it becomes a moment in time where they have different fortunes before and after that event.

NIL seems to have created a similar moment in time all over the country for basketball and football programs. It makes me wonder how many of these surges and declines would be happening regardless of NIL, which ones seem like they are related but aren't, and which ones are a definite link to the new world of NIL. It does seem like it has created a wave of retirements among old established coaches, and that is predictable.

But some random things that I consider tied to the subject:

1. There is the bounty of flat out having a lot of NIL money to throw at players, but there is also the deeper need to recruit differently and manage a program differently in the world of NIL. For example, as NIL came on the scene, I feared the Gophers would be screwed but it seems like Fleck (with Dinky Town Athletes) was able to shift gears and continue to find success even without the biggest NIL budget. In short, Fleck seems to be a coach well equipped to change his ways and adapt to the new world.

2. Oklahoma State (among other good programs) has taken a dive despite seemingly being well equipped to fork over $$. Is this a coincidence and the same thing would be happening regardless of NIL, or is Gundy suddenly over his head in the world of NIL.

3. The B1G (a league with lots of money) seems to be leaping forward at the same time the SEC (also lots of money but rumored for decades to be involved in player payments and illegal benefits) is falling back. Coincidence? Or is the joke people are making grounded in truth: now that other conferences are paying their players too, the SEC no longer stands out for top recruits?

The shift is all over the place. In some instances it isn't as obvious (the Gophers have improved, but so has the rest of the B1G so it isn't as obvious). But, the improvement is obvious in other ways. The number of ex-Gophers in the NFL has skyrocketed. Is this Due to Fleck's program building efforts or his ability to adapt to NIL?

Who are some of the other programs or conferences you have seen rapidly improve in the era of NIL, and do you think it is a coincidence in their case or is it NIL related?

 

[GophEnEspaña]

I think I've read somewhere that the majority of the Big Ten has higher endowments than the top 3 or 4 SEC schools. Also bigger alumni bases and overall more money. It's only a matter of time before the landscape shifts.

 

[upnorthkid]

My .02 on this is its a couple of things, some of which is decided on by the coach and another is what the program is.

It is very, very clear PJ knows who he is and what the Gopher football program will be (and I think we see similar things with Motzko in hockey, which pisses people off). He first and foremost wants players who want to be here and be part of the culture, and he adapts his recruiting to that. This has advantages in 1, you don't waste time on players who are chasing NIL packages, and 2, you get guys who are less likely to transfer because they came here understanding this is a developmental program. So PJ bypasses a big swath of top 300 kids every school is targeting, throwing NIL deals at, and spending time on and develops relationships with kids and families who may be a little more under the radar or targets the bigger fish who really want to be here for a reason (Koi, Roy, Voss, Karmo) either because they're local or because they've developed that bond. We're positioned to hang onto guys because we play in the B10 versus say you're in the G5, you lose those guys no matter what to play on a bigger stage. We're already there so this approach works.

As far as some of the "big donor" schools who are slipping and who are rising, OK St its not surprising. Pickens is dead. his money is all earmarked by the school. Their NIL is poor compared to many of their peers (hence why Gundy was asking to put QR codes on players helmets).

Some risers are going to be the major conferences as a whole, but skewed towards the lower parts of the conference in terms of how much they "could" rise and what sport they'll spend it on. Most obvious ones are TAM, Ole Miss, Tenn, Miami, and it likely will feed faster bounce backs for any poor seasons from the top tier (think Michigan rebuild though sherrone moore still is mediocre so it may be a hot minute, Oklahoma, USC, FSU) who can now just buy portal players to spur a more rapid rebuild at the expense of non SEC/B10 talent around the country. There also seems to generally be quite a bit of money at TTU, SMU, and Baylor, but they're throwing money at places like Texas and SEC are going to get first pass at.

Some other jumps up are due to hiring the right coach. Illinois success makes perfect sense. Bielema has won consistently in the B10 and can assemble a roster. Indiana seems to have found the blend between a good coach and its made them more willing to spend NIL with Cignetti. And it also shows you can have all the NIL in the world but if your coaches suck or can't assemble talent that fits, they'll be bad (Wisconsin, Florida would fit so far, USC though I don't think Riley is necessarily a bad coach he just has recruited like they're still in the P12)

 

[T4K]

All NIL discussions have to be bifurcated to "pre-House" and "post-House" settlement.

Post House Settlement, all schools have the same ability to spend an agreed upon % of revenue, capped at @20M (for P4 schools) on NIL for this season. The amount paid to players increases each year. NIL payments are made by the school, not collectives. All private party NIL deals over $600 have to be approved by an NCAA clearing house for legitimacy - no pay for play. Most schools are spending in the range of 60-75% of NIL resources on football, another 15% on men's hoops and the remaining money on other sports. Assuming people don't cheat - big assumption - this is a very different world than we've been living in the past few years.

 

[Schnauzer]

All NIL discussions have to be bifurcated to "pre-House" and "post-House" settlement.

Post House Settlement, all schools have the same ability to spend an agreed upon % of revenue, capped at @20M (for P4 schools) on NIL for this season. The amount paid to players increases each year. NIL payments are made by the school, not collectives. All private party NIL deals over $600 have to be approved by an NCAA clearing house for legitimacy - no pay for play. Most schools are spending in the range of 60-75% of NIL resources on football, another 15% on men's hoops and the remaining money on other sports. Assuming people don't cheat - big assumption - this is a very different world than we've been living in the past few years.

you bring up a great point, and a reason why the SEC will likely reverse their current trend by being able to cheat in the way they pay players again.

 

[A_Slab_of_Bacon]

Word has it at Oklahoma State their biggest donor is holding back as long as Gundy is there.

I do not know if it is true, but that rumor is all over the place.

 

[Hates Monikers]

All NIL discussions have to be bifurcated to "pre-House" and "post-House" settlement.

Post House Settlement, all schools have the same ability to spend an agreed upon % of revenue, capped at @20M (for P4 schools) on NIL for this season. The amount paid to players increases each year. NIL payments are made by the school, not collectives. All private party NIL deals over $600 have to be approved by an NCAA clearing house for legitimacy - no pay for play. Most schools are spending in the range of 60-75% of NIL resources on football, another 15% on men's hoops and the remaining money on other sports. Assuming people don't cheat - big assumption - this is a very different world than we've been living in the past few years.

The dollars coming directly from the schools under revenue sharing is separate from NIL. NIL still exists and is still has huge discrepancies from school to school. The NCAA claims pay-for-play is not allowed, but I'll believe it when they start rejecting deals.