The new Corona virus, should we worry?


Wally

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Freedom is something Wally. They no longer have it there or in Australia. Covid is here to stay. When they come out and get in public, they are going to get hit again. So what is the gain? Nothing.
That wasn't the discussion.

We will see how many deaths New Zealand and Australia have over the next year and then we can judge it.
 

Go4Broke

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Fresh look at pandemic origins points straight to food market in Wuhan

A scientist who has pored over public accounts of early Covid-19 cases in China reported on Thursday that an influential World Health Organization inquiry had most likely gotten the early chronology of the pandemic wrong. The new analysis suggests that the first known patient sickened with the coronavirus was a vendor in a large Wuhan animal market, not an accountant who lived many miles from it.

The report, published on Thursday in the prestigious journal Science, will revive, though certainly not settle, the debate over whether the pandemic started with a spillover from wildlife sold at the market, a leak from a Wuhan virology lab or some other way. The search for the origins of the greatest public health catastrophe in a century has fueled geopolitical battles, with few new facts emerging in recent months to resolve the question.

The scientist, Michael Worobey, a leading expert in tracing the evolution of viruses at the University of Arizona, came upon timeline discrepancies by combing through what had already been made public in medical journals, as well as video interviews in a Chinese news outlet with people believed to have the first two documented infections. Dr. Worobey argues that the vendor’s ties to the Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market, as well as a new analysis of the earliest hospitalized patients’ connections to the market, strongly suggest that the pandemic began there.

“In this city of 11 million people, half of the early cases are linked to a place that’s the size of a soccer field,” Dr. Worobey said. “It becomes very difficult to explain that pattern if the outbreak didn’t start at the market.” Several experts, including one of the pandemic investigators chosen by the W.H.O., said that Dr. Worobey’s detective work was sound and that the first known case of Covid was most likely a seafood vendor.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/18/health/covid-wuhan-market-lab-leak.html


The Journal "Science": Dissecting the early COVID-19 cases in Wuhan (18 Nov 2021)

Some key questions lie at the heart of investigations into the origin of the COVID-19 pandemic, including what is known about the earliest COVID-19 cases in Wuhan, China, and what can be learned from them? Despite assertions to the contrary (1), it is now clear that live mammals susceptible to coronaviruses, including raccoon dogs (Nyctereutes procyonoides), were sold at Huanan Market and three other live-animal markets in Wuhan before the pandemic (2, 3). Severe acute respiratory syndrome–related coronaviruses (SARSr-CoVs) were found in raccoon dogs during the SARS outbreak, which was facilitated by animal-to-human contact in live-animal markets in China.

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An expert on the origins of influenza and H.I.V., Dr. Worobey has tried to piece together the early days of the Covid pandemic. Reading a May 2020 study of early cases written by local doctors and health officials in Wuhan, he was puzzled to see a description that seemed like Mr. Chen: a 41-year-old man with no contact with the Huanan market. But the study’s authors dated his symptoms to Dec. 16, not Dec. 8.

In Dr. Worobey’s revised chronology, the earliest case is not Mr. Chen but the seafood vendor, a woman named Wei Guixian, who developed symptoms around Dec. 11. (Ms. Wei said in the same video published by The Paper that her serious symptoms began on Dec. 11, and she told The Wall Street Journal that she began feeling sick on Dec. 10. The W.H.O.-China report listed a Dec. 11 case linked to the market.)

Then Dr. Worobey found what appeared to be a second, independent source for the later date: Mr. Chen himself. “I got a fever on the 16th, during the day,” a man identified as Mr. Chen said in a March 2020 video interview with The Paper, a publication based in Shanghai. The video indicates that Mr. Chen is a 41-year-old who worked in a company’s finance office and never went to the Huanan market. Official reports said that he lived in the Wuchang district in Wuhan, miles from the market.

Dr. Worobey found that hospitals reported more than a dozen likely cases before Dec. 30, the day the Wuhan authorities alerted doctors to be on the lookout for ties to the market. He determined that Wuhan Central Hospital and Hubei Xinhua Hospital each recognized seven cases of unexplained pneumonia before Dec. 30 that would be confirmed as Covid-19. At each hospital, four out of seven cases were linked to the market. By focusing on just these cases, Dr. Worobey argued, he could rule out the possibility that ascertainment bias skewed the results in favor of the market.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/18/health/covid-wuhan-market-lab-leak.html

With SARS, live-animal markets continued to sell infected animals for many months, allowing zoonotic spillover to be established as the origin and revealing multiple independent jumps from animals into humans (3). Unfortunately, no live mammal collected at Huanan Market or any other live-animal market in Wuhan has been screened for SARS-CoV-2–related viruses (1), and Huanan Market was closed and disinfected on 1 January 2020. Nevertheless, that most early symptomatic cases were linked to Huanan Market—specifically to the western section (1) where raccoon dogs were caged (2)—provides strong evidence of a live-animal market origin of the pandemic.

This would explain the extraordinary preponderance of early COVID-19 cases at one of the handful of sites in Wuhan—population 11 million—that sell some of the same animals that brought us SARS. Although it may never be possible to recover related viruses from animals if they were not sampled at the time of emergence, conclusive evidence of a Huanan Market origin from infected wildlife may nonetheless be obtainable through analysis of spatial patterns of early cases and from additional genomic data, including SARS-CoV-2–positive samples from Huanan Market, as well as through integration of additional epidemiologic data. Preventing future pandemics depends on this effort.

https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abm4454
 

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bga1

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Just a crazy coincidence the the town where there is a lab that was doing GOF on this, just happened to have a food market issue. I guess the scientists that were whispering in emails that "this looks engineered" must have been kidding. Nothing to see here! :)
 

short ornery norwegian

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MN Dept of health Update - Friday, Nov 19

4,420 confirmed cases (and reinfections) + 742 probable cases = 5,162 total cases

44,181 PCR tests + 11,345 antigen tests = 55,526 total tests

9.3% overall positive test rate

30 deaths (17 private residents/13 long-term care)
9,155 total deaths (4,873 long-term care)

Hospitalization: ICU 340 (+7). Non-ICU 1074 (+26). Total Hospitalized 1,414 (+33).
 





GopherWeatherGuy

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So Covid-19 took only a few months to spread to every corner of the world, but the more contagious delta variant has taken nearly a year to spread across the world.

And people think this makes sense?
 





MplsGopher

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So Covid-19 took only a few months to spread to every corner of the world, but the more contagious delta variant has taken nearly a year to spread across the world.

And people think this makes sense?
:ROFLMAO:

Late 2019/early 2020 vs 2021 .... yep, people were behaving exactly the same.

Do you really think you'll convince a single person with this silly 1st grader shit??
 




Wally

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So Covid-19 took only a few months to spread to every corner of the world, but the more contagious delta variant has taken nearly a year to spread across the world.

And people think this makes sense?

You really think international travel is anywhere close to what it was when Covid started? I bet until recently it was in the single digit % of before Covid.

The initial wave had spread throughout the world before travel stopped.

Yes it makes sense.
 



MplsGopher

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"Wild fires are seasonal. Therefore, don't waste your time fighting the fire. They're just going to be back next season!" - GWG
 

howeda7

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So Covid-19 took only a few months to spread to every corner of the world, but the more contagious delta variant has taken nearly a year to spread across the world.

And people think this makes sense?
What are you implying?
 


Go4Broke

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Delta Variant Is 60 Percent More Contagious Than Original Virus and Evades Immunity


Researchers at Columbia University Mailman School of Public Health used a computer model to estimate that the Delta variant is around 60 percent more contagious than the original SARS-CoV-2 virus and can escape immunity from prior infection roughly half of the time. Compared to Delta, Beta and Gamma are less transmissible but more able to escape immunity. Compared to the original virus, Iota is more fatal to older adults.

Findings from three studies of SARS-CoV-2 variants are published on the medRxiv pre-print server ahead of publication in a peer-reviewed journal (Delta; Alpha, Beta, Gamma; Iota). [10/5/21 update: the Alpha, Beta, Gamma paper is now published in the journal Nature
Communications.] “New variants of SARS-CoV-2 have become widespread, but currently vaccines are still highly effective in preventing severe disease from these infections, so please get vaccinated if you have not done so,” says Wan Yang, PhD, assistant professor of epidemiology and lead author of the studies.

Delta

The researchers estimate that the Delta variant (B.1.617.2) is 10 to 20 percent more transmissible than Alpha, another highly contagious variant of concern. In addition, unlike Alpha which has been shown to cause minimal immune evasion, Delta is also able to evade prior immunity in around half of individuals previously infected by the ancestral strain. These findings are in line with estimates from the U.K. that Alpha is around 1.5 times more likely to result in an infection (combining the 10-20% increase in transmissibility with <∼50% increase in susceptibility due to immune evasion for prior natural infection and, to a lesser extent, vaccination).

Compared to Beta and Gamma, the Delta variant is more transmissible but less able to escape immunity. A decline in Delta cases in India beginning in early May was likely due to the implementation of public health measures and weather conditions. Monsoon season (June–September) and the winter (December–January) could see higher virus transmission. The Delta variant was first detected in December 2020 and has spread to 142 countries, as of August 10.

Alpha, Beta, and Gamma


In addition to Delta, Alpha (B.1.1.7), Beta (B.1.351), and Gamma (P.1) are the other three SARS-CoV-2 variants currently classified by the WHO as variants of concern that have spread globally. The researchers estimate that Alpha is roughly 50 percent more transmissible than the original virus but possesses only nominal ability to escape protection provided by prior infection with the original SARS-CoV-2 variant. Beta has a roughly 30 percent increase in transmissibility and 60 percent immune escape and Gamma has a roughly 40 percent increase in transmissibility and 50 percent immune escape.

Iota


Iota (B.1.526), a WHO variant of interest, is estimated to be 15-25 percent more transmissible than the original SARS-CoV-2 and slightly immune evasive (0-10%). The study, which focused on New York City, where the Iota variant emerged in November 2020, found that Iota substantially increased the infection-fatality risk compared to preexisting variants among older adults: by roughly 45 percent among 45-64-year-olds, 80 percent among 65-74-year-olds, and 60 percent among those 75 and older, during November 2020–April 2021.

https://www.publichealth.columbia.e...contagious-original-virus-and-evades-immunity
 
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Wally

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I hope China unleashes the next variant soon.
 





MplsGopher

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JJchiro, bga, GWG, et al actually believe, truly in their hearts, and would tell anyone who would listen, that a PCR machine can take water and turn it into any molecule you want.

They really, actually believe it.
 

MplsGopher

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Interesting

So you're saying, I should be able to go on Google, search "thomas jendges" and find his webpage for being the head of a clinic, right?
 





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