The Dangers of Waiting

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Duluthguy

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Could this worst case scenario happen?

It appears there are very few viable candidates who could be hired right way, so odds are the Gophs will go after an active coach. Now I know absolutely nothing about the process, but it seems like there's little that could be done until the season is over - make contact through back channels to determine the degree of interest, but highly doubtful there could be any kind of interview, negotiations, etc. It's very doubtful we could even get permission to talk to the guy at all. So, Coach X tells the Gophs he's very interested and the wait for the end of the season begins.

However, as the season winds down Michigan falters and it looks like RR may be on his way out. With a week left, another BCS coach is told he won't be coming back. The day after the season ends a few more jobs open up. Suddenly Coach X sees other opportunities that could pay more money, are in his region of the country, near his family, etc. No more Coach X.

With Coach X off the radar, the Gophs lose the advantage of firing Brew early and find themselves competing with schools who just fired their coaches. Guys on GH who said Maturi should wait for the right guy after the season now want his head, wondering why in the hell he didn't lock up someone like Bellotti when he had the chance.

Is there anything at all we could do to "lock up" the guy before the season ends to prevent this from happening?
 

See Glen Taylor/Joe Smith. No i don't know, but the Gophers wouldn't lose the advantage. They should of already had a good idea of who the real viable candidates are for the job as well as a feel for who may be willing to come, but smart enough to wait for a more "prestigious" job to open up. They should have enough time to have reasonable contingency plans in place. Of course they will be competing with schools who just fired their coach, the advantage should be that they have a better view of the landscape at the particular moment in time. I don't think the U would be competing for the same coach as MI later this fall, but that is just my opinion.
 

It is entirely possible that prexy b and maturi will blow this. They have a pretty bad track record with the handing of the head coaching situation for the Football Program at the Univesity of minnesota.

I suppose, it all depends upon how much creedence you give Dave Mona as a real "football coaching expert..." Or, has Dave Mona been hired as the "get away driver" for prexy b and maturi. Is he supposed to be the guy to pave the path with "slick PR" to distract the people from the facts, provide temporary hype and "cover" as prexy b and maturi escape into retirement, leaving the new prexy with a real mess on his/her hands. Beware a Trestman hire. His name started being pushed by some of the local "blow-dries" such as Mark Rosen back around the time of Gutey/Wacker coaching appointments.

The Mona connection here looks like there could be some questionable choices made in this coaching-search process. Hope I am really wrong. But, you bring in a pr guy when you are having a lot of trouble selling things... I pretty much have a hard time buying anything re: the football coach search coming from maturi and prexy b...and their pr guy Dave Mona. Ask for a double your money back guarantee if Mona is paving the way for maturi and prexy b.
 

Silvio,

Here is one reason to assume that we currently have a lot more competition for coaching candidates: The programs that probably are getting ready to fire their coaches either have AD's who have a strong "short list" of candidates that they KNOW will pay attention to them or, they are working behind the scenes in some way, shape or form.

Don't kid yourself, the hire/fire season has been upon us for a fairly long time. INFLATION of coaching salary started before the kickoff of the 2010 season. Ferentz got upped to 3.65 million. The writing is on the wall. maturi and prexy b should have made their move LAST season.

Any ad worth his salt KNEW within the first couple of games in the 2010 season whether he would bring back his current coach and already has some good footwork done on his replacement project.

The time IS of essence.

IF you really think about it...the benefits of the new stadium were already somewhat in place back at the end of the 2006 season when prexy b and maturi totally blew their hire for the Football Coaching position at the U of M. IF they don't have their man, or at least top 3 candidates buttoned down by now...it is getting VERY late. Each week that goes by is more reason to worry. Now, if it is already a "done deal" with a name coach, I will be very happily surprised. If there is no "done deal" and too much time passes, I will be very nervous as a long-time Gopher season ticket holder.
 

The point of firing Brewster in the middle of the season wasn't so much to get a head start on the hiring process, but to stop the bleeding in the program. It has managed to stave off despair, and we will probably have a new coach within 6 weeks.
 


imthewalrus said:
Silvio,

Here is one reason to assume that we currently have a lot more competition for coaching candidates: The programs that probably are getting ready to fire their coaches either have AD's who have a strong "short list" of candidates that they KNOW will pay attention to them or, they are working behind the scenes in some way, shape or form.

Don't kid yourself, the hire/fire season has been upon us for a fairly long time. INFLATION of coaching salary started before the kickoff of the 2010 season. Ferentz got upped to 3.65 million. The writing is on the wall. maturi and prexy b should have made their move LAST season.

Any ad worth his salt KNEW within the first couple of games in the 2010 season whether he would bring back his current coach and already has some good footwork done on his replacement project.

The time IS of essence.

IF you really think about it...the benefits of the new stadium were already somewhat in place back at the end of the 2006 season when prexy b and maturi totally blew their hire for the Football Coaching position at the U of M. IF they don't have their man, or at least top 3 candidates buttoned down by now...it is getting VERY late. Each week that goes by is more reason to worry. Now, if it is already a "done deal" with a name coach, I will be very happily surprised. If there is no "done deal" and too much time passes, I will be very nervous as a long-time Gopher season ticket holder.
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I think coaching salary inflation started long before the start of the 2010 season. I could site numerous examples. The benefits of the new stadium were in place in terms of recruiting, but not in terms of providing the financial means to hire a top tier coach. I bet their will be several coaches who are fired at the end of this year who were pretty safe after their first two games (see RichRod in MI). For being a great "observer" you sure miss a lot of things.

Are the hire/fire season the same thing or are they two separate seasons that have a fairly large overlay? When do these seasons actually start and end or is it one big season that goes on into infinity?
 

Back at the end of the 2006 season, prexy b and maturi KNEW roughtly what the new stadium would cost and could estimate what their investment in that stadium would cost them. Yet, they gambled on hiring a totally inexperienced, not-qualified, no name coach who would be on board for the opening of the new stadium. Well, it has taken less than 1 1/2 seasons of playing in the new stadium to run this ship aground With a 285 million dollar investment (much of which is funded by a bonding issue approved by the state and the "fire-sale" of part of the University land-grant land-holdings back to the state, the river-boat gambling administrative branch has put a lot at risk. TCF BANK STADIUM is a ball and chain around the neck of the U of M. It MUST work.

Was richrod safe at MI at the beginning of the season after the last few seasons? I highly doubt it. IF he doesn't beat OSU and pretty much win-out from this point on, based upon his Big Ten win minus loss record he will be gone. Try to tell me they have not had a time-table for him that has already been pushed to the limit. Michigan will not continue to lose just to give richrod another chance. His Big Ten record this year will make or break him. He lost to MSU. He lost to iowa. Big Ten wins minus losses matter EVERYWHERE in the Big Ten, except, maybe not right now at PSU.
 

Geez, didn't take long for this thread to veer off topic. Once again, what are we or any other school capable of doing now to try to "lock up" the coach we want? And please, if you want to bash Maturi there are at least ten other threads for that. (As per Mona, he might be worth it if his only job is to shut Sid up during the process.)
 

Duluth, I agree, which is why I thought they should have waited awhile before canning Brewster. If we take too long in the process, it looks like we're dawdling and word on the street becomes something to the effect "Minnesota still doesn't know what it's doing." The main reason I wanted to wait a bit on Brewster--and let me make it clear I have no trouble with the decision to fire him--is that we are now stuck only being able to talk about guys who aren't currently coaching ala Leach and Berlotti. What bowl-eligible coach is going to fly to Minneapolis for an interview during game week?

It just seems that while the decision was warranted (and truly had probably already been made), the announcement could have waited three or four weeks. I think this makes the time frame messier.
 



I can honestly see them having some sort of deal in place to announce as soon as the Iowa game is over. I just don't see them making any type of announcement until after the season, even if they were to make the hire this afternoon.
 

Hopefully Joel has a three stage strategy. First those who are now out of coaching who are viable candidates. Belotti, Leach, Fulmer, etc. The key to the hire is a winning record in Division 1. They all have that. And given the go ahead they could get the staff assembled finish the recruiting and meet the team at the end of the season. This is a plus. The minus has the game pass them by, have they lost the fire, are they simply looking for a pay day. The second stage is current coaches, this includes wide range of known and unknown coaches. Again a winning record at Divison 1 is manditory. I would put Paul Johnson, Bowden, Calhoun, Sumlin in this group. But their are others like Ken Niumatalolo. Al Golden's current record prohibits him from consideration.

Everytime I look at a list my favorite changes.

In order today

1. Mike Belotti
2. Terry Bowden
3. Paul Johnson
4. Mike Leach
5. Ken Niumatatlolo he garners number 5 just because I cann't wait for Sid to pronounce it.
6. Troy Calhoun
7. Phillip Fulmer

How many choices does Joel need?
 


imthewalrus said:
TCF BANK STADIUM is a ball and chain around the neck of the U of M. It MUST work.
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No, it is not a ball and chain. It's pure benefit. What are they going to do, reposess the stadium? The stadium is a revenue stream that we didn't have with the dome.
 



The potential revenue from TCF BANK STADIUM will be split into about 30 pots...

All the non-revenue and Title IX sports are all waiting for their cut of the extra 3.5 million or so that was projected as additional income for the athletic department. It will NOT go directly to the football program. So, look for no financial help there.

Even though the tickets were sold for this year, no shows can't spend money in the stadium for concessions, etc. No shows kill revenue projections.

IF TCF BANK STADIUM becomes a 50,000 seat stadium that is an easy ticket for iowa, wisky, Nebraska fans it will be incredibly depressing. IF the student section doesn't start manning/womanning up as a real force rather than the real farce it sometimes can be this stadium will provide no home field advantage.

It is a beautiful stadium. It is a paradise compared to the dome. However, unless the administration hires a coach who can win Big Ten football games and be competetive within the Big Ten conference and can win border battle contests once in a while, TCF BANK STADIUM could become: "...a paradise lost..." and could be a real ball and chain on an administration's neck as it struggles for 25 years to pay the debt on the stadium off.
 

There's little advantage to lose.

The Gophers are pretty much free to pursue unemployed coaches right now while others would have to wait until the current coach is fired.

So the Gophers have the advantage there and do appear to be putting out feelers about some othe currently unemployed coaches.

Since nobody can talk to currently employed coaches right now, they could have no advantage to lose at this point.

Most likely what will happen is that the Gophers will try to establish a relationship with a couple of the unemployed coaches that they might be intersted in. They'll use the time between now and the end of the season to do that while nobody else is really talking to them. Once the season is over they'll probably quickly talk with and perhaps offer the job to an active coach or coaches. If none of those turn up anything they can fall back on the previously established contacts with unemployed coaches.

I just feel like they will want an active coach with a winning history, but I think the one exception would be Ty Willingham because of his ties with Dungy. Willingham could get the job just for the fact that he has had success as a HC and having Dungy backing you is pretty good.
 

imthewalrus said:
All the non-revenue and Title IX sports are all waiting for their cut of the extra 3.5 million or so that was projected as additional income for the athletic department. It will NOT go directly to the football program. So, look for no financial help there.
Click to expand...

Nonsense. Even if some of the revenue does go to the non-revenue sports, the fact remains that more revenue = more resources for the football team.

Even though the tickets were sold for this year, no shows can't spend money in the stadium for concessions, etc. No shows kill revenue projections.
Click to expand...

We had no shows at the dome too. Yes, no shows don't bring in concession money. But it is VITAL to note that at the dome, even people who showed up and went crazy buying concessions didn't brink in a cent of concession money to the U, because we didn't get concessions revenue.
 


imthewalrus said:
It is entirely possible that prexy b and maturi will blow this. They have a pretty bad track record with the handing of the head coaching situation for the Football Program at the Univesity of minnesota.

I suppose, it all depends upon how much creedence you give Dave Mona as a real "football coaching expert..." Or, has Dave Mona been hired as the "get away driver" for prexy b and maturi. Is he supposed to be the guy to pave the path with "slick PR" to distract the people from the facts, provide temporary hype and "cover" as prexy b and maturi escape into retirement, leaving the new prexy with a real mess on his/her hands. Beware a Trestman hire. His name started being pushed by some of the local "blow-dries" such as Mark Rosen back around the time of Gutey/Wacker coaching appointments.

The Mona connection here looks like there could be some questionable choices made in this coaching-search process. Hope I am really wrong. But, you bring in a pr guy when you are having a lot of trouble selling things... I pretty much have a hard time buying anything re: the football coach search coming from maturi and prexy b...and their pr guy Dave Mona. Ask for a double your money back guarantee if Mona is paving the way for maturi and prexy b.
Click to expand...

I doubt that Mona was brought in to be a PR guy to smooth over the anger after Maturi's inevitable bad hire (I'm not saying I think he will make a bad hire, but that would have to be the mindset of this hypothetical). What conversation do you think happened? "Hey, we're definitely gonna hire an unpopular Trestman, so we better bring in Dave Mona as a PR representative to help with our image?"

And if you think that's the case, maybe they want a PR guy when they hire a coach who doesn't have the best reputation when it comes to not locking players in dark rooms.
 


I think Mona is there to help rank the prospective coaches from a PR angle. Mona will help determine the "Minnesota" or "Minnesota-like" in the equation.
 


I think Mona's main job is to handle PR with the Boosters in the case that they need to come up with big $ quickly and quietly for a buyout for the next head coach who is currently employed. This would be especially true if it appears to be a close call on if they can raise the money needed in the time frame and failure to raise the money from boosters will result in that coach not being a viable candidate.
 

21-30 doesn't tell much given he started with what was probably one of the bottom 5 programs in the country.

If you toss out the first year where he had nothing to work with he's 23-21 the last 4 seasons at temple and 9-4 in his 3rd season and 5-2 so far this year.

They are on course to go 9-3 in the regular season again this year, maybe 10-2.

6 years ago they were kicked out of the Big East because the program was so bad in just about every way.

Golden has taken one of the worst programs in the country and turned them into a 8-10 win per season type of program.

He fits the Gopher's situation well:

He's young.
He has a winning history.
He has shown he can build a program.
He has coaching experience at top college programs.

Certainly a much better fit than Mike Leach.
 

Silvio said:
I think Mona's main job is to handle PR with the Boosters in the case that they need to come up with big $ quickly and quietly for a buyout for the next head coach who is currently employed. This would be especially true if it appears to be a close call on if they can raise the money needed in the time frame and failure to raise the money from boosters will result in that coach not being a viable candidate.
Click to expand...

Good angle.
 


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