The college football games, storylines and arguments that will dominate November

[MisterGopher]

https://www.espn.com/college-footba...-games-storylines-arguments-dominate-november

In the article they develop a hierarchy of CFP odds and cover the conference races. And then cover the key remaining games in November.

CFP Odds Hierarchy
1. 13-0 Alabama: 99.9%
2. 13-0 Ohio State: 99.8%
3. 13-0 LSU: 99.6%
4. 13-0 Penn State: 99.6%
5. 13-0 Clemson: 99.3%
6. 12-1 Alabama (SEC champ with a loss to Auburn): 97.0%
7. 12-1 LSU (SEC champ with loss to Texas A&M): 96.4%
8. 12-1 Penn State (Big Ten champ with regular-season loss to Minnesota): 94.9%
9. 12-1 Ohio State (Big Ten champ with loss to Michigan): 91.7%
10. 12-1 Georgia: 88.6%
11. 12-1 Florida: 78.6%
12. 13-0 Minnesota: 78.4%
13. 11-2 Auburn (wins SEC): 73.7%
14. 11-1 LSU (loses to Alabama, doesn't reach SEC title game): 73.0%
15. 11-1 Alabama (loses to LSU, doesn't reach SEC title game): 65.3%
16. 11-1 Penn State (loses to Ohio State, doesn't reach Big Ten title game): 59.2%
17. 13-0 Baylor: 54.7%
18. 11-1 Ohio State (loses to Penn State, doesn't reach Big Ten title game): 51.8%
19. 12-1 Oregon: 42.7%
20. 12-1 Oklahoma: 29.5%
21. 11-2 Florida (loses to Florida State but wins SEC): 29.2%
22. 12-1 Clemson (ACC champ with a loss to South Carolina): 27.3%
23. 11-2 Georgia (loses to Auburn but wins SEC): 23.3%
24. 12-1 Minnesota (Big Ten champ with regular-season loss to Penn State): 21.5%
25. 12-1 Utah: 18.2%
26. 12-1 Clemson (loses in ACC title game): 13.8%
27. 11-2 Wisconsin: 9.6%
28. 12-1 Baylor (Big 12 champ with regular season loss to Oklahoma): 5.4%
29. 11-2 Iowa: 5.4%

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[BleedGopher]

per the link:

Big Ten
East: Ohio State (8.5), Penn State (7.6)
West: Minnesota (7.4)
Key remaining games: Penn State at Ohio State (Nov. 23), Wisconsin at Minnesota (Nov. 30)

In the playoff discussion above, I referenced a scenario in which Ohio State loses to Michigan -- stop snickering, Michigan will beat the Buckeyes again ... at some point ... maybe -- but that one probably matters only to the national title race. It's hard to imagine anyone but the winners of the two games above winning this conference. And Minnesota will need to have lost another game before Wisconsin visits for that one to even matter.

Go Gophers!!

 

[Com_Cool]

per the link:

Big Ten
East: Ohio State (8.5), Penn State (7.6)
West: Minnesota (7.4)
Key remaining games: Penn State at Ohio State (Nov. 23), Wisconsin at Minnesota (Nov. 30)

In the playoff discussion above, I referenced a scenario in which Ohio State loses to Michigan -- stop snickering, Michigan will beat the Buckeyes again ... at some point ... maybe -- but that one probably matters only to the national title race. It's hard to imagine anyone but the winners of the two games above winning this conference. And Minnesota will need to have lost <strike>another</strike> a game before Wisconsin visits for that one to even matter.

Go Gophers!!

FIFY

 

[BeerFueledFF]

Reading the article, I'm a bit surprised Minnesota @ Iowa isn't considered a major game.

Seems they are expecting Minnesota to win? Since even if Iowa loses to Wisconsin and is out of the race, it should still be important due to Minnesota needing the win to keep their playoff hopes alive.

 

[MGGopher]

I like how a 13-0 MN has lower odds to make the playoff than would 6 one-loss teams. This is all for fun, of course. IMO, with ND and the PAC champs already carrying losses, there's zero chance a 13-0 major conference champion is left out of the playoff.

 

[MaxyJR1]

I like how a 13-0 MN has lower odds to make the playoff than would 6 one-loss teams. This is all for fun, of course. IMO, with ND and the PAC champs already carrying losses, there's zero chance a 13-0 major conference champion is left out of the playoff.

Baylor 13-0
Minnesota 13-0
Clemson 13-0
LSU 13-0
Alabama 11-1

Alabama should stay home, but will they?

 

[Bob_Loblaw]

Baylor 13-0
Minnesota 13-0
Clemson 13-0
LSU 13-0
Alabama 11-1

Alabama should stay home, but will they?

No, I think Baylor would stay home in this scenario.

We would have wins against Penn State, Iowa, Wisconsin, Ohio State and Georgia Southern.

Alabama's best (and only quality win) would be Auburn.

 

[MplsGopher]

Baylor still has to play a rivalry game @TCU, and get through both Texas and OU (though both are at home). Then probably a rematch with OU in the Big XII champ game.

I think Clemson, and the Big Ten and SEC champs will be 13-0, and in the playoff. The 4th spot will be an interesting pick, especially if Alabama is 11-1 with only loss to LSU 13-0 and Penn St is 11-1 with only loss to Ohio State 13-0. (Shouldn't need to say this, but I'm not rooting for this to happen, just highlighting an interesting hypothetical scenario)