The Big Ten (after 23 days to look teams over)

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SelectionSunday

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My first snapshot of how the Big Ten race will shape up. Subject to change in the next 3-plus weeks, obviously.

1. Ohio State (so far Bucks clearly have been the best team, plus they don't have to travel to East Lansing)
2. Michigan State (if turnover problems get figured out -- and rest assured they will -- look out)
3. Illinois (like this team more & more very time I see 'em; McCamey looks like a Big Ten POY)
4. Minnesota (3rd is in reach for Gophers, but I think this is the realistic landing spot)
5. Wisconsin (Badgers will find a way to finish in top half as long as they have Bo, and Leuer & Taylor stay healthy)
6. Purdue (this will be a NCAA team because they're tough as nails but too limited offensively without Hummel)
7. Northwestern (skilled offensively, but will they defend & rebound enough to get to NCAA?)
8. Michigan (Beilein will get a lot out of this young crew; they'll knock off a few of the big boys)
9. Indiana (hard to get a read on Hoosiers with candy-soft schedule they've played so far)
10. Penn State (disappointed, thought they'd be better than this; DeChellis gone after this season?)
11. Iowa (there have been some encouraging things for McCaffery-led Hawkeyes but best they can hope for is 9th place)
 

good post

I like the depth and Izzo as advantages of Michigan st. over Ohio st. But both are definitely top 5 schools. Illinois is deep, but still not that physical. Purdue plays some of the best defense around. And I'd take Johnson and Moore over Lueur and Taylor.
1. mich st
2. ohio st
3. purdue
4. illinois
5. minnesota bad free throw shooting will cost us.
6. wisconsin
7. northwestern
8. indiana
9. michigan
10. penn st
11. iowa
 

Just a bad half but...

I know it was just a bad half but the Virginia game has me shaken a bit. Purdue was in a similar position yesterday but on the road and found a way to win. They did not panic and cave. Wisconsin rolled on NC State.

We looked like we had 5 true freshman on the floor the last 15 minutes Monday.

I am not sure what the rest of the NC schedule will tell us and the first part of the Big Ten schedule is brutal. Color me uncertain but still hopeful.

:eek:
 

SelectionSunday said:
My first snapshot of how the Big Ten race will shape up. Subject to change in the next 3-plus weeks, obviously.

1. Ohio State (so far Bucks clearly have been the best team, plus they don't have to travel to East Lansing)
2. Michigan State (if turnover problems get figured out -- and rest assured they will -- look out)
3. Illinois (like this team more & more very time I see 'em; McCamey looks like a Big Ten POY)
4. Minnesota (3rd is in reach for Gophers, but I think this is the realistic landing spot)
5. Wisconsin (Badgers will find a way to finish in top half as long as they have Bo, and Leuer & Taylor stay healthy)
6. Purdue (this will be a NCAA team because they're tough as nails but too limited offensively without Hummel)
7. Northwestern (skilled offensively, but will they defend & rebound enough to get to NCAA?)
8. Michigan (Beilein will get a lot out of this young crew; they'll knock off a few of the big boys)
9. Indiana (hard to get a read on Hoosiers with candy-soft schedule they've played so far)
10. Penn State (disappointed, thought they'd be better than this; DeChellis gone after this season?)
11. Iowa (there have been some encouraging things for McCaffery-led Hawkeyes but best they can hope for is 9th place)
Click to expand...

Pretty much spot on. However, I can't pick against Izzo. Matta may have more talent, but Izzo can coach circles around him. My money's still on MSU.
 

As much as it pains me here is how I will rank the teams along with a thought or two for each team

1. OSU-For now, with Izzo ability to coach circle around Matta, I am assuming that the Spartans will be #1 sooner rather than later
2. MSU-Easily the best 2 loss team in America, no team peaks better in March than the Spartans so no need to hit the panic button
3. Illinois-As McCamey goes the Illini will go. If he is distributing well and not focusing on his points Illinois will can beat anyone
4. Wisconsin-Kohl Center. Enough said.
5. Minnesota-Kinda falls here by default. They can beat any on a good night lose to anyone on a bad.
6. Purdue-The Boilermakers have some serious problems to figure out by B10 season. They will get some problems figured out.
7. NW-That stupid system they run will keep them in alot of games.
8. Indiana-Here is the break. IU while better than some think won't challenge for the B10 unlike those above
9. Michigan-They are going to get it going or a seat is going to get a little hot
10. Penn State-Can Taylor Battle save Ed's job. My guess, no.
11. Iowa-Wrestling outdraws basketball. That's all you need to know.
 


howeda7 said:
Pretty much spot on. However, I can't pick against Izzo. Matta may have more talent, but Izzo can coach circles around him. My money's still on MSU.
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Then why has Izzo lost his last two games against Matta (neither of which were in Columbus)? The Spartans were swept by OSU in '07 - obviously Izzo didn't coach circles around Matta that year when OSU had more talent. The two teams only play one game, @ OSU, this season.
 

OSUfan said:
Then why has Izzo lost his last two games against Matta (neither of which were in Columbus)? The Spartans were swept by OSU in '07 - obviously Izzo didn't coach circles around Matta that year when OSU had more talent. The two teams only play one game, @ OSU, this season.
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Is the Ohio State board broken again?
 

OSUfan said:
Then why has Izzo lost his last two games against Matta (neither of which were in Columbus)? The Spartans were swept by OSU in '07 - obviously Izzo didn't coach circles around Matta that year when OSU had more talent. The two teams only play one game, @ OSU, this season.
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Would you trade Matta for Izzo straight up?
 

Section201 said:
I know it was just a bad half but the Virginia game has me shaken a bit. Purdue was in a similar position yesterday but on the road and found a way to win. They did not panic and cave. Wisconsin rolled on NC State.

We looked like we had 5 true freshman on the floor the last 15 minutes Monday.

I am not sure what the rest of the NC schedule will tell us and the first part of the Big Ten schedule is brutal. Color me uncertain but still hopeful.

:eek:
Click to expand...

We were in a similar position twice on neutral sites and we handled business. Both UNC and WVU made runs on us in the middle of the 2nd half, but they held it down. Virginia was unusually hot, and yes, it caused panic. But there's more evidence of this teams poise than them being frazzled this season. Al Nolen is a big part of that. We should have him come Big Ten season, I believe. If that's the case, we'll be fine.
 



OSU is so incredibly awesome this year I think we should just hand them the title. They're that good.;)
 

mnboiler said:
Would you trade Matta for Izzo straight up?
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For the course of the whole season, which, of course, includes the national tournament, then no one would sanely choose Matta over Izzo. However, this thread is about the Big Ten race. To this point, Matta has the edge over Izzo. During Matta's time at Ohio State, Izzo has won 2 conference regular season titles. Matta has won 3. Izzo has won no conference tournament titles. Matta has won 2. Each was won 6 head-to-head match-ups.

Again, no one of sound mind would choose Matta over Izzo if post-conference play were the metric. On the other hand, if conference play were the sole metric, it is clear that Izzo has not out-coached Matta.
 

The Big Ten is loaded with excellent coaches. Izzo and Matta are two of 'em. I've never understood the criticism of Matta. He was successful at Butler, successful at Xavier and he's certainly been successful at OSU. That's a pattern difficult to poo-poo. Same deal with Tubby (Tulsa, Georgia, Kentucky, Minnesota), the only difference being Tubby won one more game (in 1998, NCAA champion) than Matta (in 2007, NCAA runner-up).

I suppose Matta is in the same category as Bill Self was a few years ago. ... to the masses he's just the coach with all that talent that can't win it all. That's not fair, as I think both Self and Matta (Calipari, too, for that matter) have always been quality coaches, national championship on their resumes or not.
 

OSUfan said:
Then why has Izzo lost his last two games against Matta (neither of which were in Columbus)? The Spartans were swept by OSU in '07 - obviously Izzo didn't coach circles around Matta that year when OSU had more talent. The two teams only play one game, @ OSU, this season.
Click to expand...

You're delusional if you think Matta is a better coach than Izzo. Matta is a great recruiter. In fact I would call him the best recruiter in the conference. When it comes to x''s and o's he is middle of the pack within a conference that is heavy loaded with great x's and o's coaches. Luckily for Matta and Ohio State basketball is a sport that talent generally trumps system.
 



grunkiejr said:
You're delusional if you think Matta is a better coach than Izzo. Matta is a great recruiter. In fact I would call him the best recruiter in the conference. When it comes to x''s and o's he is middle of the pack within a conference that is heavy loaded with great x's and o's coaches. Luckily for Matta and Ohio State basketball is a sport that talent generally trumps system.
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Your post totally ignored the point that Matta has beaten Izzo the last two times the teams played, and when Matta had his most talented team, they swept Izzo. I'm not really going to argue against Izzo, but let's not pretend that he is head & shoulders above Matta (i.e., operate under the premise that Izzo is able to 'coach circles around Matta'). OSU and MSU are .500 against each other since Matta started. It's like arguing over filet mignon and top sirloin - both have some advantages on each other. Believe it or not, there is more than one hall of fame caliber coach in the Big Ten. There's no reason to belittle Matta or OSU - they have a lot going for them. So does Izzo/MSU.

I would not trade Matta for Izzo because I think the odds are higher for Matta to win the NC in the near future (this year, next year, etc.).
 

um osufan take a step back. tom izzo=6 final fours, thad matta=1 nuff said
 

Tennessee vs. OSU/MSU in last year's tourney

In the Elite 8, a crippled Michigan State team (without Kalin Lucas) beat the same team (Tennessee) that a healthy OSU team (with the National Player of the Year) couldn't beat in the Sweet 16. Matta's an excellent coach, but he's got work to do to be put in Izzo's class. He may get there someday, but he's not there now.

No shame in playing second fiddle to a Tom Izzo, just as there's no shame in a Tom Izzo (as great as he is) being a second fiddle to Coach K.
 

MSU was one possession better than Tennessee, OSU one worse, but no one thought that was one of Matta's elite teams - it was a pretty good team, but still had some obvious flaws (no true PG, no low post presence on offense, no depth whatsoever).

Matta has had three general types of teams at OSU: 1) run-of-the-mill 20-win teams ('05, '08, '09), 2) flawed teams that just barely had enough talent to win the Big Ten ('06, '10), and 3) elite teams capable of winning the NC ('07, '11). Matta might only get a #3 team to come around once every 4 or 5 years, but that's more due to the lure of the NBA than anything (compare to Izzo who hasn't had a 1 & done since 2001 and only one NBA early entry since 2002, something that has really helped provide a lot of stability & consistency to his program). In #1 and #2 years, Izzo's system (which is more consistent, and is close but doesn't quite have NC-caliber talent) is probably better, but I'm happy to take the "lesser" #1 and #2 years knowing a superior #3 year is right around the corner. Izzo has made a lot of F4s, but they haven't come close to winning the NC since 2000 - the only title game they made, they got blown out big-time (UNC set the record for most points in the first half and biggest lead at halftime in coasting to a 17-point win against Izzo).

I'm not saying people are wrong for preferring Izzo, as 6 F4s in 12 years is nothing to sneeze at & he's clearly a very good coach with a very good program. What I'm saying is I prefer Matta because I think the way he runs a program is more consistent with how to win the NC (even though an NC-caliber team only comes around once every four or five years).

Matta probably would've had an NC already had Florida not had (for the only time in history of college basketball) returned all five starters off a national title team (three of which were surefire lotto picks that spurned the NBA for an extra year of MBB, which makes that Florida team even more rare these days).
 



Matta has had three general types of teams at OSU: 1) run-of-the-mill 20-win teams ('05, '08, '09), 2) flawed teams that just barely had enough talent to win the Big Ten ('06, '10), and 3) elite teams capable of winning the NC ('07, '11). Matta might only get a #3 team to come around once every 4 or 5 years, but that's more due to the lure of the NBA than anything (compare to Izzo who hasn't had a 1 & done since 2001 and only one NBA early entry since 2002, something that has really helped provide a lot of stability & consistency to his program). In #1 and #2 years, Izzo's system (which is more consistent, and is close but doesn't quite have NC-caliber talent) is probably better, but I'm happy to take the "lesser" #1 and #2 years knowing a superior #3 year is right around the corner. Izzo has made a lot of F4s, but they haven't come close to winning the NC since 2000 - the only title game they made, they got blown out big-time (UNC set the record for most points in the first half and biggest lead at halftime in coasting to a 17-point win against Izzo).
Click to expand...

Lol. :clap:
 

Remove the scarlet & gray glasses for a moment

I never knew playing on Championship Monday wasn't considered coming close to winning a national championship, even if the runner-up was blown out in the title game. That's enlightening. Finishing 2nd out of 343 schools. ... yea, sure, that's not coming close at all.;)

With all due respect OSUfan, you need to take off your scarlet & gray glasses once in a while. You have a lot of great insights, but it's difficult to take anyone seriously who basically thinks their school/coach can do no wrong.
 

SelectionSunday said:
I never knew playing on Championship Monday wasn't considered coming close to winning a national championship, even if the runner-up was blown out in the title game. That's enlightening. Finishing 2nd out of 347 schools. ... yea, sure, that's not coming close at all.;)

With all due respect OSUfan, you need to take off your scarlet & gray glasses once in a while. You have a lot of great insights, but it's difficult to take anyone seriously who basically thinks their school/coach can do no wrong.
Click to expand...

OSU, you might take a cue from MNBoiler, who openly admitted in this very thread the flaws of his own team on another team's message board. For the record, I think he overstated Purdue's weaknesses. Thier D will keep them in a lot of games.
 

Purdue

I agree about Purdue, Holy Man. I don't think they're a threat to win the Big Ten any more because they're so reliant on two players, but they'll still be a tough out. The Boilers have toughness, and we know how hard they'll compete under Painter.

From what I've seen it's a two-horse race for the Big Ten regular-season title, Sparty & OSU. If Illinois beats Gonzaga in Seattle this weekend, I'll probably throw the Illini into the mix as well.
 

I like to group teams into tiers with best case, worst case, and most likely scenarios- this is how I see it this year

Tier 1- MSU/OSU. The favorites who are highly unlikely to finish worse than 4th. I could see one of them going 13-5 or 12-6 though with 3 teams finishing in front of them (see last years standings) Likely finish 1, 2, or 3.

Tier 2a- Minny and Illinois. Both very talented teams who could win the conference, but have historically not shown the consistency over the grind of the Big Ten schedule, often dropping games that they should win (different teams this year, I know, but see Monday night's debacle at the barn for evidence). Either COULD finish anywhere from 1st to 7th (yes, 7th).

Tier 2b- Wisconsin and Purdue. Very consistent teams that probably do not quite have the talent of the top 4, but are less likely to have "what the hell?" performances than tier 2a. Can win the conference, but would need some help from a team or two above underperforming. However, I don't think it is very likely that either of these teams will fall as far as seventh place. Likely finish 3, 4, or 5.

Tier 3- Northwestern- Won't win the whole thing, but could finish as high as 3rd or 4th if they get lucky. Likely finish 5, 6, or 7.

Tier 4- Michigan and Indiana. NIT teams that will pull off a few upsets (more likely against tier 2a than tier 2b)

Tier 5- The unmentionables. Lose to them at severe risk to your place in the standings.

Ohio State and Purdue are somewhat shallow teams that could drop games with injuries or foul trouble to key players. The same could probably be said if Wisconsin loses Taylor or Leuer or Illinois loses McCamey. Minnesota and MSU are both very deep.
 

SelectionSunday said:
I never knew playing on Championship Monday wasn't considered coming close to winning a national championship, even if the runner-up was blown out in the title game. That's enlightening. Finishing 2nd out of 343 schools. ... yea, sure, that's not coming close at all.;)

With all due respect OSUfan, you need to take off your scarlet & gray glasses once in a while. You have a lot of great insights, but it's difficult to take anyone seriously who basically thinks their school/coach can do no wrong.
Click to expand...

Ok, let's make a friendly wager. I'll stop posting here if Izzo wins an NC before Matta does. If Matta wins an NC before Izzo wins his second one, what will you do? With my S&G glasses firmly off, I guarantee you Matta will win an NC before Izzo wins another. Izzo's teams, while very good, essentially have not had NC-level talent. You think there's no reason to prefer Matta to Izzo, fine. But I don't think it's true.
 

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