Talk about unlucky...

[From the Barn]

We are the fifth most unlucky team in the country. http://kenpom.com/rate.php?s=Luck

If you look at the win-loss record and the efficiency ratings, we have the fewest wins of any team in the top 55, even though the Gophers rank #26 in the Pomeroy rankings.

At least the bad luck is quantifiable.

 

[josh087]

Also Penn St, Alabama, and Marquette near the bottom. Makes a lot of sense when you look at the close losses by each.

It would be interesting to see how exactly that number is calculated.

 

[rcpratt]

From KenPom:

Luck, which is the deviation in winning percentage between a team’s actual record and their expected record using the correlated gaussian method. The luck factor has nothing to do with the rating calculation, but a team that is very lucky (positive numbers) will tend to be rated lower by my system than their record would suggest.

 

[From the Barn]

Also Penn St, Alabama, and Marquette near the bottom. Makes a lot of sense when you look at the close losses by each.

It would be interesting to see how exactly that number is calculated.

"the deviation in winning percentage between a team’s actual record and their expected record using the correlated gaussian method."
As for the guassian method, no idea.

 

[rcpratt]

It looks to me like it's just the deviation between the actual record and the expected record based on the teams scoring margin. Either regular scoring margin, or possibly a per possession scoring margin. KenPom doesn't explain much, though, so there's not much more to find out.

 

[From the Barn]

Looks like only 2008 Illinois has surpassed this season's bad luck for Big Ten teams since '04. Ouch.

 

[josh087]

Thanks.

"the deviation in winning percentage between a team’s actual record and their expected record using the correlated gaussian method."
As for the guassian method, no idea.

Obviously it is related to his formulas. Like I said, it would be nice to know how it exactly is calculated.

 

[Gopher Warrior]

Marquette had been sitting at "#1" for a long time.. two overtime victories on the road in the past two games have helped. Minnesota has been sitting down in the 'top 15' for weeks... but the Purdue game helps them 'move on up'. At the end of the day, great teams are usually not unlucky teams, by definition... from a MN perspective, it's not something I would take and say, 'oh, we were so close.. just were unlucky'...

Needless to say, loving the Gophers and Warriors this year has not been easy on the ticker. At least one should be in the big dance and the other may have a decent additional home game or two. Could be worse.

Wednesday in Queens - MU wins in OT with the buzzer beater

 

[gopherbadgerman]

Glad to see fans are still holding on to something here. Although these formulas may have some history behind them, I would blame our record on inferior talent rather than luck, IMO