Summertime Field of 68 Projection

[SelectionSunday]

Here’s my first look at the 2022 NCAA Tournament field. Will make adjustments (if needed) in mid-October for the final preseason Field of 68 projection. Automatic qualifiers are noted in bold.

SUMMERTIME 2021-22 FIELD OF 68 PROJECTION
America East (1): Vermont

American (2): Houston, Memphis

ACC (7): Duke, Florida State, Louisville, North Carolina, Syracuse, Virginia, Virginia Tech

ASUN (1): Liberty

Atlantic 10 (2): Richmond, Saint Bonaventure

Big East (5): Saint John’s, Seton Hall, UConn, Villanova, Xavier

Big Sky (1): Montana

Big South (1): Winthrop

Big Ten (7): Illinois, Indiana, Maryland, Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, Purdue

Big XII (6): Baylor, Kansas, Oklahoma State, Texas, Texas Tech, West Virginia

Big West (1): UC-Riverside

Colonial (1): Elon

Conference USA (1): UAB

Horizon (1): Milwaukee

Ivy (1): Penn

MAAC (1): Iona

MAC (1): Akron

MEAC (1): Coppin

Missouri Valley (1): Northern Iowa

Mountain West (2): Colorado State, Nevada

NEC (1): Bryant

OVC (1): Belmont

Pac 12 (5): Arizona, Oregon, UCLA, USC, Washington State

Patriot (1): Navy

SEC (7): Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn, Kentucky, LSU, Mississippi State, Tennessee

SoCon (1): Furman

Southland (1): Nicholls

SWAC (1): Texas Southern

Summit (1): ORU

Sun Belt (1): Georgia State

WCC (3): BYU, Gonzaga, LMU

WAC (1): Abilene Christian
____________________________

Last 4 In: Louisville, Nevada, Arizona, LMU (last team in)

First 4 Out: Rutgers (first team out), San Diego State, VCU, Florida

12 Others to Watch: Butler, Cleveland, Creighton, Drake, Kansas State, North Texas, Oklahoma, Penn State, Saint Mary’s, SMU, Utah, Wichita
______________________

Non-Power 6 At-Large Bids (5): BYU, Houston, LMU, Nevada, Richmond

Power 6 Overall Bids Percentage (37 of 68): 54.4%

Non-Power 6 Overall Bids Percentage (31 of 68): 45.6%
______________________________

Repeats from 2020-2021 Field (36): Abilene Christian, Alabama, Arkansas, Baylor, BYU, Florida State, Gonzaga, Houston, Illinois, Iona, Kansas, Liberty, LSU, Maryland, Michigan, Michigan State, North Carolina, Ohio State, Oklahoma State, ORU, Oregon, Purdue, Saint Bonaventure, Syracuse, Tennessee, Texas, Texas Southern, Texas Tech, UCLA, UConn, USC, Villanova, Virginia, Virginia Tech, West Virginia, Winthrop

New Faces/New Places
Abilene Christian (WAC from Southland)
Bethune-Cookman (SWAC from MEAC)
Central Arkansas (ASUN from Southland)
Eastern Kentucky (ASUN from OVC)
Florida A&M (SWAC from MEAC)
Jacksonville State (ASUN from OVC)
Lamar (WAC from Southland)
North Carolina A&T (Big South from MEAC)
Saint Thomas (Summit from D3 MIAC)
Sam Houston (WAC from Southland)
Stephen F. Austin (WAC from Southland)

Ineligible for NCAA Tournament Field (8): Bellarmine, Cal Baptist, Dixie, Merrimack, North Alabama, Saint Thomas, Tarleton, UC-San Diego

Preseason Final 4: Arkansas, Kansas, Purdue, Texas

Championship Monday: Texas over Kansas
___________________________

Big Ten Projection
1 Purdue
2 Michigan
3 Ohio State
4 Michigan State
5 Illinois
6 Maryland
7 Indiana
8 Rutgers
9 Penn State
10 Wisconsin
11 Nebraska
12 Northwestern
13 Iowa
14 Minnesota

 

[BleedGopher]

Thanks so much for putting this together Hodger! Needed some actual basketball to think about, even if MN isn’t in the conversation.

Marcus Carr cutting down the nets, that would be something.

Go Gophers!!

 

[SelectionSunday]

Thanks Bleed, I enjoy doing it. Looking forward to having fans back in the stands across the country, even though our Williams Arena may only be filled at about half capacity most of the time. Hopefully Ben can somehow start/show a foundation despite what's sure to be a tough season win/loss-wise.

Thanks so much for putting this together Hodger! Needed some actual basketball to think about, even if MN isn’t in the conversation.

Marcus Carr cutting down the nets, that would be something.

Go Gophers!!

 

[upnorthkid]

Here’s my first look at the 2022 NCAA Tournament field. Will make adjustments (if needed) in mid-October for the final preseason Field of 68 projection. Automatic qualifiers are noted in bold.

SUMMERTIME 2021-22 FIELD OF 68 PROJECTION
America East (1): Vermont

American (2): Houston, Memphis

ACC (7): Duke, Florida State, Louisville, North Carolina, Syracuse, Virginia, Virginia Tech

ASUN (1): Liberty

Atlantic 10 (2): Richmond, Saint Bonaventure

Big East (5): Saint John’s, Seton Hall, UConn, Villanova, Xavier

Big Sky (1): Montana

Big South (1): Winthrop

Big Ten (7): Illinois, Indiana, Maryland, Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, Purdue

Big XII (6): Baylor, Kansas, Oklahoma State, Texas, Texas Tech, West Virginia

Big West (1): UC-Riverside

Colonial (1): Elon

Conference USA (1): UAB

Horizon (1): Milwaukee

Ivy (1): Penn

MAAC (1): Iona

MAC (1): Akron

MEAC (1): Coppin

Missouri Valley (1): Northern Iowa

Mountain West (2): Colorado State, Nevada

NEC (1): Bryant

OVC (1): Belmont

Pac 12 (5): Arizona, Oregon, UCLA, USC, Washington State

Patriot (1): Navy

SEC (7): Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn, Kentucky, LSU, Mississippi State, Tennessee

SoCon (1): Furman

Southland (1): Nicholls

SWAC (1): Texas Southern

Summit (1): ORU

Sun Belt (1): Georgia State

WCC (3): BYU, Gonzaga, LMU

WAC (1): Abilene Christian
____________________________

Last 4 In: Louisville, Nevada, Arizona, LMU (last team in)

First 4 Out: Rutgers (first team out), San Diego State, VCU, Florida

12 Others to Watch: Butler, Cleveland, Creighton, Drake, Kansas State, North Texas, Oklahoma, Penn State, Saint Mary’s, SMU, Utah, Wichita
______________________

Non-Power 6 At-Large Bids (5): BYU, Houston, LMU, Nevada, Richmond

Power 6 Overall Bids Percentage (37 of 68): 54.4%

Non-Power 6 Overall Bids Percentage (31 of 68): 45.6%
______________________________

Repeats from 2020-2021 Field (36): Abilene Christian, Alabama, Arkansas, Baylor, BYU, Florida State, Gonzaga, Houston, Illinois, Iona, Kansas, Liberty, LSU, Maryland, Michigan, Michigan State, North Carolina, Ohio State, Oklahoma State, ORU, Oregon, Purdue, Saint Bonaventure, Syracuse, Tennessee, Texas, Texas Southern, Texas Tech, UCLA, UConn, USC, Villanova, Virginia, Virginia Tech, West Virginia, Winthrop

New Faces/New Places
Abilene Christian (WAC from Southland)
Bethune-Cookman (SWAC from MEAC)
Central Arkansas (ASUN from Southland)
Eastern Kentucky (ASUN from OVC)
Florida A&M (SWAC from MEAC)
Jacksonville State (ASUN from OVC)
Lamar (WAC from Southland)
North Carolina A&T (Big South from MEAC)
Saint Thomas (Summit from D3 MIAC)
Sam Houston (WAC from Southland)
Stephen F. Austin (WAC from Southland)

Ineligible for NCAA Tournament Field (8): Bellarmine, Cal Baptist, Dixie, Merrimack, North Alabama, Saint Thomas, Tarleton, UC-San Diego

Preseason Final 4: Arkansas, Kansas, Purdue, Texas

Championship Monday: Texas over Kansas
___________________________

Big Ten Projection
1 Purdue
2 Michigan
3 Ohio State
4 Michigan State
5 Illinois
6 Maryland
7 Indiana
8 Rutgers
9 Penn State
10 Wisconsin
11 Nebraska
12 Northwestern
13 Iowa
14 Minnesota

when is the last time WI finished at 10?

 

[SelectionSunday]

when is the last time WI finished at 10?

A long, long time ago.

The top 3 are the only Big Ten teams I completely trust heading into the season.

 

[Go4]

if we can’t make tournament i would be so happy if wisconsin doesn’t too!

 

[60's Guy]

I think Pitino’s New Mexico may carve out a spot.
I don’t like Iowa and have done no research, even so I’ll be surprised if they finish 13th. But it would somehow be very satisfying if WI was 10th and Iowa 13th.
And Ben got the Gophers ahead of them.
That would seem to have the makings of an awesome season sitting here on August 1st.

 

[SelectionSunday]

I think Pitino’s New Mexico may carve out a spot.
I don’t like Iowa and have done no research, even so I’ll be surprised if they finish 13th. But it would somehow be very satisfying if WI was 10th and Iowa 13th.
And Ben got the Gophers ahead of them.
That would seem to have the makings of an awesome season sitting here on August 1st.

Agree with you about Iowa. I picked Hawkeyes 13th, but not with a lot of conviction. Just took a flyer that they’ll have an uncharacteristically rough season after losing their 3 best players.

 

[cjbfbp]

when is the last time WI finished at 10?

I don't know but they did finish 9th in 2018. They had a 15-18 overall record with a 7-11 record in the Big Ten. Conference was pretty bad that year; 6 teams with overall losing records.

They're still a respectable program but the success of the Bo Ryan era doesn't look like its returning anytime soon. In his 14 full seasons, Bo had 9 seasons with single digit losses. Gard hasn't had one yet.

 

[cjbfbp]

I don’t like Iowa and have done no research, even so I’ll be surprised if they finish 13th.

I would be too. McCaffrey hasn't managed to do very much in the NCAA tournament but he's one of the best in the conference at putting together decent or good seasons with relatively modest talent. In his 11 Big Ten years, he's finished lower than tied for 7th only twice (his first year and his eighth year). He lost four of his top five players from the 2016 team but his 2017 team still finished 10-8 in the conference and 19-15 overall.

 

[cjbfbp]

when is the last time WI finished at 10?

Found an answer to your question: in the 1998 season, Wisconsin finished 10th (of 11 teams) with a 3-13 conference record.

More surprising for that year was the last place team: Ohio State with a 1-15 conference record. Hard to believe given recent history but Ohio State had some bad teams in that era. From the five year period of 1994 through 1998, they had overall records of 13-16, 6-22, 10-17, 10-17, and 8-22.

 

[WilliamsArenaGuy]

Found an answer to your question: in the 1998 season, Wisconsin finished 10th (of 11 teams) with a 3-13 conference record.

More surprising for that year was the last place team: Ohio State with a 1-15 conference record. Hard to believe given recent history but Ohio State had some bad teams in that era. From the five year period of 1994 through 1998, they had overall records of 13-16, 6-22, 10-17, 10-17, and 8-22.

And then in '99 OSU was in the Final Four just like that.

 

[cjbfbp]

And then in '99 OSU was in the Final Four just like that.

Yes, 27-9, a striking turnaround. Looking at that gives a comparable to Pitino's turnaround from the 2016 to 2017 seasons. Pitino's 2017 season wasn't quite as good as Ohio State's 1999 season but he still went from arguably the worst season in program history to the best conference finish this century.

Four of those five terrible years for Ohio State came under Randy Ayers. He had the opposite type of turnaround. He started his tenure at Ohio State with 3 straight tournament appearances with the last two as #1 seeds. Didn't seem to hurt his overall career that much. He went to the NBA as an assistant coach afterwards and has been there ever since. He did have a partial year as an NBA head coach where he produced a losing record.

 

[builtbadgers]

Yes, 27-9, a striking turnaround. Looking at that gives a comparable to Pitino's turnaround from the 2016 to 2017 seasons. Pitino's 2017 season wasn't quite as good as Ohio State's 1999 season but he still went from arguably the worst season in program history to the best conference finish this century.

Four of those five terrible years for Ohio State came under Randy Ayers. He had the opposite type of turnaround. He started his tenure at Ohio State with 3 straight tournament appearances with the last two as #1 seeds. Didn't seem to hurt his overall career that much. He went to the NBA as an assistant coach afterwards and has been there ever since. He did have a partial year as an NBA head coach where he produced a losing record.

Respect your opinion but i do not find them comparable at all. 2ND SEASON for OB, first was with someone else's roster and no Penn. With Penn, a rock star of a team. Pitino created the roster of a terrible team himself and was further into his time at the program. Plus OB won several national coach of the year awards, not close here. They just kept getting better and then struck gold with Matta who not only got a real final 4 but a conference giant with 5 titles.

 

[cjbfbp]

Respect your opinion but i do not find them comparable at all. 2ND SEASON for OB, first was with someone else's roster and no Penn. With Penn, a rock star of a team. Pitino created the roster of a terrible team himself and was further into his time at the program. Plus OB won several national coach of the year awards, not close here. They just kept getting better and then struck gold with Matta who not only got a real final 4 but a conference giant with 5 titles.

I wasn't comparing coaches or even circumstances. I was just analogizing them as one-year turnarounds. I can't imagine comparing Pitino favorably to most veteran coaches at this point. One obvious difference between the two (even if one knows nothing else about them) is that O'Brien managed to sustain that success for a few years after the turnaround year whereas Pitino was back to having another very disappointing team in the year after his.

 

[builtbadgers]

I wasn't comparing coaches or even circumstances. I was just analogizing them as one-year turnarounds. I can't imagine comparing Pitino favorably to most veteran coaches at this point. One obvious difference between the two (even if one knows nothing else about them) is that O'Brien managed to sustain that success for a few years after the turnaround year whereas Pitino was back to having another very disappointing team in the year after his.

Got it. Just do not see them as similar as one year turnarounds. No big deal. You have your take, i have mine.

 

[SelectionSunday]

Big Ten standings projection from Inside the Hall.

 

[combes1]

A long, long time ago.

The top 3 are the only Big Ten teams I completely trust heading into the season.

Illinois has the best center and the best point guard in the league. Kofi was an all American last season. Curbelo is an amazing talent. Trent Frazier is a four year starter. Damonte Williams (shot over 50% from three) and Jacob Grandison started more than 16 games for a one-seed last season. Illinois added Alphonso Plummer, the Pac-12 record holder for three pointers in a game (11) and a 14 point per game scorer, and 6-6 Austin Hutcherson (injured last year) is a stud. 6-11 Coleman Hawkins and 6-10 Omar Payne provide depth. Illinois also brought in a top 20 recruiting class.

Illinois will be ranked in the top 10 nationally and you have them 5th in the league and a team you can’t trust?

 

[SelectionSunday]

Illinois has the best center and the best point guard in the league. Kofi was an all American last season. Curbelo is an amazing talent. Trent Frazier is a four year starter. Damonte Williams (shot over 50% from three) and Jacob Grandison started more than 16 games for a one-seed last season. Illinois added Alphonso Plummer, the Pac-12 record holder for three pointers in a game (11) and a 14 point per game scorer, and 6-6 Austin Hutcherson (injured last year) is a stud. 6-11 Coleman Hawkins and 6-10 Omar Payne provide depth. Illinois also brought in a top 20 recruiting class.

Illinois will be ranked in the top 10 nationally and you have them 5th in the league and a team you can’t trust?

Yes, and yes.