***Statistical Matchup - Gophers v. Illinois***

[Clyde Tester]

Gophers (5-4 Overall; 3-3 Conference) v. Illinois (2-6 Overall; 1-5 Conference)

OVERALL STATISTICAL COMPARISON (ranking # is national ranking including all games)
********Gopher Offense v Illinois Defense
Scoring -- 23 ppg (#88)-----26 ppg (#74)
Rushing – 104 ypg (#103)----176 ypg (#93)
Passing – 212 ypg (#66) ------235 ypg (#82)
Total -----316 ypg (#101) -----411 ypg (#96)

********Illinois Offense v. Gopher Defense
Scoring – 19 ppg (#108) --------26 ppg (#75)
Rushing – 198 ypg (#20) ------172 ypg (#89)
Passing – 174 ypg (#104) ------230 ypg (#78)
Total ---372 ypg (#66) -------402 ypg (#92)

BIG TEN STATISTICAL COMPARISON (including only Big 10 Games – 4 of 6 similar opponents)
Gophers - W @ Northwestern, L v. Wisconsin, W v. Purdue, L @ Penn State, L @ Ohio State, W v. Mich St
Illinois- L @ Ohio State, L v. Penn State, L v. Michigan State, L @ Indiana, L @ Purdue, W v. Michigan

********Gopher Offense v Illinois Defense
Scoring -- 25 ppg (#7) ------26 ppg (#6)
Rushing – 113 ypg (#9) ------208 ypg (#11)
Passing – 202 ypg (#7) -----200 ypg (#5)
Total --315 ypg (#10) --------408 ypg (#8)

********Illinois Offense v. Gopher Defense
Scoring – 16 ppg (#11) ---------28 ppg (#8)
Rushing –181 ypg (#3)--------172 ypg (#9)
Passing – 169 ypg (#10)--------255 ypg (#10)
Total --- 350 ypg (#6)---------427 ypg (#9)

 

[Gopher07]

Their passing offense really is that bad, eh? I like our chances more now, mainly because we're marginally competent at stopping the run (at least, we were for most of the game against MSU).

 

[Schnoodler]

But I will add, the type of run we're good at stopping isn't the type of run we most need to worry about with Illinois. this will be a very interesting game. I think our D is much better than our stats, so I think this gives us the advantage.

 

[NewEngland_Gold]

Clyde...nice work as usual...

Defensively, both seem very similar.

Offensively, some strange #'s for the Illini in BT games...#6 in total O, yet only averaging 16 pts/gm. Too many TO's or those dreaded words "stupid penalties"? What's your take? Even the anemic, lowly-ranked G offense has been averaging 25 pts/gm.

What's the edge for the Gs? STs/SFs? 12th man certainly a big plus.

For some reason...STs/SFs?...the Gs at 3-3 in BT play seem to be playing above their stat level by a significant margin and I wonder if anyone has an insightful answer beyond the obvious final score edge.

Although the Illini are modest dogs, just looking at the O/D stats and their beatdown of the Wolves, this one could be a bigger struggle for the Gs than many GHers anticipated just a few days ago as most had it banked as an sure W.

 

[Clyde Tester]

Defensively, both seem very similar.

Offensively, some strange #'s for the Illini in BT games...#6 in total O, yet only averaging 16 pts/gm. Too many TO's or those dreaded words "stupid penalties"? What's your take? Even the anemic, lowly-ranked G offense has been averaging 25 pts/gm.

I realized this morning I forgot to circle back and try to answer the above question. My take is that Illinois has some big play ability but lacks general execution. So they have the ability to rack up yards, but struggle to score in the red zone. In addition if they have been down in nearly every game, they likely have passed a lot in the 2nd half and eaten up yards, but again, haven't scored.

I'm sure the above can easily be proven/disproven so I have no idea if I'm even close...but that's my best guess.

My take on Saturday - I think the key to a Gopher victory is being able to put pressure on Juice. If he has time to sit in the pocket or time to roll out he'll be very dangerous (and I do not have faith in our defense to maintain positional integrity - I fear breakdowns and players out of position as we've seen the last few games). If Juice is forced to make quick decisions the Gophers can keep the Illinois offense in check IMO.

Interestingly, the same could be said for the Illinois defense and Weber. If they apply pressure early and often they can keep Weber off balance and he might revert to his pre-MSU self. This game rests on the Gopher O-line and D-line I think. Both have the ability to control the game or give it away. Let's hope they can keep things under control on both sides of the line.