Star ratings and All-Big Ten selections

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WestTexasGopher

WestTexasGopher

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Saw something posted recently that noted how Jonathan Taylor was "only" a 3-star recruit. It got me thinking about how this year's All-Big Ten selections were rated coming out of high school.

So, I took the composite ratings from 24/7 for each of this year's All-Big Ten team. I don't know what this proves, but it is surely interesting. I've color-coded these: 5 star=red; 4 star=green; 3 star=blue; 2 star=purple; NA=black. I count 89 total players on all the levels. Totals are:
5 star-10
4 star-28
3 star-44
2 star-3
NA- 4

If someone has a lot more time than do I, it would be interesting to do the math and see the overall average and averages per position.

Quarterbacks
Justin Fields, Ohio State (Coaches-1; Media-1) 5 stars 0.9998
Tanner Morgan, Minnesota (Coaches-2; Media-2) 3 stars 0.8375
Shea Patterson, Michigan (Coaches-3; Media-3) 5 stars 0.9982

Running backs
J. K. Dobbins, Ohio State (Coaches-1; Media-1) 4 stars 0.9791
Jonathan Taylor, Wisconsin (Coaches-1; Media-1) 3 stars 0.8854
Stevie Scott III, Indiana (Coaches-2; Media-2) 3 stars 0.8402
Rodney Smith, Minnesota (Coaches-2; Media-2) 3 stars 0.8351
Master Teague, Ohio State (Coaches-3; Media-3) 4 Stars 0.9132
Zach Charbonnet, Michigan (Media-3) 4 stars 0.9760
Elijah Collins, Michigan State (Media-3) 3 stars 0.8639
Reggie Corbin, Illinois (Coaches-3) 3 stars 0.8244

Wide receivers
Rashod Bateman, Minnesota (Coaches-1; Media-1) 4 stars 0.8914
Tyler Johnson, Minnesota (Coaches-1; Media-1) 3 stars 0.8643
KJ Hamler, Penn State (Coaches-2; Media-2) 4 stars 0.8919
David Bell, Purdue (Coaches-3; Media-2) 4 stars 0.9495
Whop Philyor, Indiana (Coaches-2; Media-3) 3 stars 0.8281
Chris Olave, Ohio State (Coaches-3; Media-3) 3 stars 0.8875

Centers
Tyler Biadasz, Wisconsin, Wisconsin (Coaches-1; Media-1) 3 stars 0.8405
Josh Myers, Ohio State (Coaches-3; Media-2) 4 stars 0.9757
Cesar Ruiz, Michigan (Coaches-2; Media-3) 4 stars 0.9786

Guards
Ben Bredeson, Michigan (Coaches-1; Media-1) 4 stars 0.9799
Wyatt Davis, Ohio State (Coaches-2; Media-1) 5 stars 0.9876
Jonah Jackson, Ohio State (Coaches-1; Media-2) 3 stars 0.8135
Steven Gonzalez, Penn State (Coaches-2; Media-2) 4 stars 0.8911
Blaise Andries, Minnesota (Coaches-3; Media-3) 3 stars 0.8857
Michael Onwenu, Michigan (Coaches-3) 4 stars 0.9571
Simon Stepaniak, Indiana (Media-3) 3 stars 0.8441

Tackles
Jon Runyan, Michigan (Coaches-1; Media-1) 3 stars 0.8402
Tristan Wirfs, Iowa (Coaches-1; Media-1) 4 stars 0.8911
Thayer Munford, Ohio State (Coaches-2; Media-2) 4 stars 0.8985
Branden Bowen, Ohio State (Coaches-2; Media-3) 3 stars 0.8666
Cole Van Lanen, Wisconsin (Media-2) 4 stars 0.9389
Alaric Jackson, Iowa (Coaches-3; Media-3) 3 stars 0.8596
Alex Palczewski, Illinois (Coaches-3) 3 stars 0.8319

Tight ends
Brycen Hopkins, Purdue (Coaches-1; Media-1) 3 stars 0.8027
Pat Freiermuth, Penn State (Coaches-2; Media-2) 4 stars 0.9149
Luke Farrell, Ohio State (Coaches-3) 4 stars 0.9233
Peyton Hendershot, Indiana (Media-3) 3 stars 0.8411

Defensive selections

Defensive linemen
A. J. Epenesa, Iowa (Coaches-1; Media-1) 5 stars 0.9868
Yetur Gross-Matos, Penn State (Coaches-1; Media-1) 4 stars 0.9223
Chase Young, Ohio State (Coaches-1; Media-1) 5 stars 0.9957
Joe Gaziano, Northwestern (Coaches-1; Media-2) 3 stars 0.8643
Kenny Willekes, Michigan State (Coaches-2; Media-1) NA
Carter Coughlin, Minnesota (Coaches-2; Media-2) 4 stars 0.9566
Kwity Paye, Michigan (Coaches-2; Media-3) 3 stars 0.8696
Raequan Williams, Michigan State (Coaches-3; Media-2) 4 stars 0.9146
George Karlaftis, Purdue (Media-2) 4 stars 0.9705
Shaka Toney, Penn State (Coaches-2) 3 stars 0.8498
Davon Hamilton, Ohio State (Coaches-3; Media-3) 3 stars 0.8754
Oluwole Betiku Jr., Illinois (Media-3) 5 stars 0.9884
Khalil Davis, Nebraska (Coaches-3) 3 stars 0.8730
Aidan Hutchinson, Michigan (Media-3) 4 stars 0.9498
Carlo Kemp, Michigan (Coaches-3) 4 stars 0.8954
Robert Windsor, Penn State (Coaches-3) 3 stars 0.8453

Linebackers
Zack Baun, Wisconsin (Coaches-1; Media-1) 3 stars 0.8428
Micah Parsons, Penn State (Coaches-1; Media-1) 5 stars 0.9982
Malik Harrison, Ohio State (Coaches-1; Media-2) 3 stars 0.8568
Dele Harding, Illinois (Coaches-3; Media-1) 3 stars 0.8549
Chris Orr, Wisconsin (Coaches-2; Media-2) 3 stars 0.8235
Paddy Fisher, Northwestern (Coaches-3; Media-2) 3 stars 0.8397
Khaleke Hudson, Michigan (Coaches-2; Media-3) 3 stars 0.8819
Josh Uche, Michigan (Coaches-2; Media-3) 3 stars 0.8558
Joe Bachie, Michigan State (Media-3) 3 stars 0.8415
Cam Brown, Penn State (Coaches-3) 4 stars 0.8970

Defensive backs
Jordan Fuller, Ohio State (Coaches-1; Media-1) 4 stars 0.9403
Lavert Hill, Michigan (Coaches-1; Media-1) 4 stars 0.9409
Antoine Winfield Jr., Minnesota (Coaches-1; Media-1) 3 stars 0.8285
Jeff Okudah, Ohio State (Coaches-1; Media-1) 5 stars 0.9955
Damon Arnette, Ohio State (Coaches-2; Media-2) 3 stars 0.8596
Lamar Jackson, Nebraska (Coaches-2; Media-2) 4 stars 0.9594
Antoine Brooks, Maryland (Coaches-2; Media-3) 2 stars 0.7882
Michael Ojemudia, Iowa (Coaches-3; Media-2) 3 stars 0.8106
Josiah Scott, Michigan State (Media-2) 3 stars 0.8462
Geno Stone, Iowa (Coaches-2) 3 stars 0.7991
Shaun Wade, Ohio State (Coaches-3; Media-3) 5 stars 0.9904
Sydney Brown, Illinois (Coaches-3) 3 stars 0.8294
Tariq Castro-Fields (Media-3) 4 stars 0.8967
Josh Metellus, Michigan (Media-3) 3 stars 0.8540
Ambry Thomas, Michigan (Coaches-3) 4 stars 0.9583

Special teams

Kickers
Keith Duncan, Iowa (Coaches-1; Media-1) NA
Logan Justus, Indiana (Coaches-2; Media-2) NA
Blake Haubeil, Ohio State (Coaches-3; Media-3) 3 stars 0.8321

Punters
Blake Hayes, Illinois (Coaches-1; Media-1) 2 stars 0.7497
Will Hart, Michigan (Coaches-3; Media-2) NA
Adam Korsak, Rutgers (Coaches-2; Media-3) 2 stars 0.7885

Return specialist
Javon Leake, Maryland (Coaches-1; Media-1) 3 stars 0.8715
Aron Cruickshank, Wisconsin (Coaches-2; Media-2) 3 stars 0.8784
Dre Brown, Illinois (Coaches-3) 3 stars 0.8744
Donovan Peoples-Jones, Michigan (Media-3) 5 stars 0.9925
 

Looks to me like the star rankings only mean so much. And then comes the determination and development of the player himself. Under the right coaching, I think a low star player can become a first rounder in the NFL. I also think with the wrong coaching, a 5 star can easily be a total flop and never play.
 


mjfelton15 said:
Looks to me like the star rankings only mean so much. And then comes the determination and development of the player himself. Under the right coaching, I think a low star player can become a first rounder in the NFL. I also think with the wrong coaching, a 5 star can easily be a total flop and never play.
Click to expand...

There’s probably only like 20 five star players in the conference and half of them are on OSU. The five stars definitely have a very high rate of success.
 



I still can't believe none of the Gophers "Special Teams" players made it. Especially punt non-return and kick out of bounds-off.
 

mjfelton15 said:
I’m saying it’s a far from perfect system
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This topic gets debated all the time in here. There is value in the star system but it isn't perfect, no possible way it could be. There are just simply too many players and too many unknowns for the recruiting services to get an accurate read on every player.

Many people get far too hung up on the number of stars next to a players name or the overall ranking of the class. There is value in what the recruiting services say but it shouldn't be viewed as 100% correct either because while they will be right in their assessment on a lot of players they will also miss on a bunch as well.
 

MNVCGUY said:
This topic gets debated all the time in here. There is value in the star system but it isn't perfect, no possible way it could be. There are just simply too many players and too many unknowns for the recruiting services to get an accurate read on every player.

Many people get far too hung up on the number of stars next to a players name or the overall ranking of the class. There is value in what the recruiting services say but it shouldn't be viewed as 100% correct either because while they will be right in their assessment on a lot of players they will also miss on a bunch as well.
Click to expand...
Yes, exactly. you laid out what I was trying to say in a much better way.
 

For a given player stars might be unreliable no doubt.

For a team depth and quality of players measured by stars ... does seem to matter.
 



MNVCGUY said:
This topic gets debated all the time in here. There is value in the star system but it isn't perfect, no possible way it could be. There are just simply too many players and too many unknowns for the recruiting services to get an accurate read on every player.

Many people get far too hung up on the number of stars next to a players name or the overall ranking of the class. There is value in what the recruiting services say but it shouldn't be viewed as 100% correct either because while they will be right in their assessment on a lot of players they will also miss on a bunch as well.
Click to expand...

Agree 100%. I only posted this here to see how recruiting predictions played out in terms of the conference's top performers. I'd be curious (got the time?) to see what the mean was for each position and the entire All-B1G team. I suspect that the lessons are:
  • most top performers are relatively highly ranked coming out of high school
  • there are far too many variables (work ethic, luck, injuries, etc.) to accurately predict how a player will pan out
 

I'd add the players class/year/experience is a factor. How many of the 3-star players on the list are seniors? How many of the 5-star players are underclassmen?
 

There are those who live and die with the ratings the players their team recruits and that is fine with me. I very much object to ratings in four significant numbers for that is math fraud, deceptive and meant to deceive the math ignorant.
Chaos theory tells us that when there are so many variables in how a player performs that we can only predict what is probable.
But again their are those who need to believe that some things are certain in this life other than death. And that is fine with me also.
 

mjfelton15 said:
Looks to me like the star rankings only mean so much. And then comes the determination and development of the player himself. Under the right coaching, I think a low star player can become a first rounder in the NFL. I also think with the wrong coaching, a 5 star can easily be a total flop and never play.
Click to expand...
I would only add that some so called 5 star guys will be a total flop no matter the coaching and some 2 star guys will be make the NFL no matter the coach. The whole star system is a media invention of limited value in evaluating players for a real university program. You can play and star in the NFL with an IQ of 75, not so easy at a real university if the guy is jerk as well.
 



I bunch of years ago there was a Sports Illustrated article that checked back on how the number one recruit of each class did. Some did very well, some did not. What I found rather funny was that there were some who never played in college at all. All that ink and drooling over absolutely nothing.
 

MNVCGUY said:
This topic gets debated all the time in here. There is value in the star system but it isn't perfect, no possible way it could be. There are just simply too many players and too many unknowns for the recruiting services to get an accurate read on every player.

Many people get far too hung up on the number of stars next to a players name or the overall ranking of the class. There is value in what the recruiting services say but it shouldn't be viewed as 100% correct either because while they will be right in their assessment on a lot of players they will also miss on a bunch as well.
Click to expand...
I would say "...it shouldn't be viewed as 70% correct either...". I have been reading about these stars too long to not be very cynical about the "star system".
 
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As far as ratings for recruiting,

5 star - use a scoop
2 and 3 star - cherry pick
 

No one believes the ratings are 100% dead on. But it’s so obvious that they are pretty accurate if a wide view is taken. There is a reason Clemson and Alabama are perennial powerhouses.
 

btowngopher said:
There’s probably only like 20 five star players in the conference and half of them are on OSU. The five stars definitely have a very high rate of success.
Click to expand...

I agree. BUT - is a senior making the 3rd team all B10 as a 5 star recruit considered that much of a success?
 

gopherbadgerman said:
I agree. BUT - is a senior making the 3rd team all B10 as a 5 star recruit considered that much of a success?
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Not really what I’m arguing. 3rd team all B10 is what it is as far as level of success, my point is the 5 Star is much more likely to attain that level or higher than a 3 Star.
 

btowngopher said:
Not really what I’m arguing. 3rd team all B10 is what it is as far as level of success, my point is the 5 Star is much more likely to attain that level or higher than a 3 Star.
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Totally agree with that.
 

Yep. More highly regarded recruits are more likely to be better college players. They are more likely to make it to the NFL, be all conference, all american, etc. etc. The number of stars matter.

But, it is important to not error in the opposite direction either. I'm making these percentages up but for the sake of argument: say there is a 40% chance a two star high school player will be great college player, and a 50% chance a three star will do the same. 70% four star and 90% five star. All that may be true but in the end it is conceivable that a team with lower ranked recruits can end up with more college talent than another team with higher ranked recruits.

There are a lot of Auburn fans right now dismissing the Gophers because of recruiting rankings four and five years ago without even bothering to notice Winfield, Morgan, etc.
 

One ratio you are missing is how many 5, 4, 3, and two star players are in the conference. There are likely only a handful of 5* players, more 4 star and a bunch of 3*. Those ratio's likely play big into this.
 


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