Spread for UNLV...

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Minnfan said:
Can anyone explain this to me? I'm a betting moron, but it looks like we are favored by 9? Can that be?

http://www.oddsshark.com/ncaaf/minnesota-unlv-odds-august-31-2012
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The football world may not think highly of Minnesota, but they think even less of UNLV. Saragin ranked Minnesota at #88, which isn't good, but UNLV was ranked at #155. Sagarin would have predicted a Gopher's win of close to two touchdowns. Of course, this isn't last year, and we don't really know what we are getting from either team. But being a 9-point favorite isn't surprising.
 

As betting starts picking up, I think the spread will increase, Hence, betting now at Gophers -9 seems like a good one.

BTW, Las Vegas knows what the hell they are doing.
 

Dr.Don said:
As betting starts picking up, I think the spread will increase, Hence, betting now at Gophers -9 seems like a good one.

BTW, Las Vegas knows what the hell they are doing.
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Are you saying they have some of your money?
 

Again I will explain the "line" to you non-betters. Bookies do not gamble, they steal! The only purpose of the "line" is to get equal $$$ bet on both teams. When they pay out 50% of the money to the winners they keep 10% as the "vig". Thus when the day is done they make 5% profit from the entire money bet. Provided, of course, that the line has successfully split the bets 50/50.

What happens if all the Gopher fans stay at one hotel and that hotel cannot get enough money bet on UNLV? They lay it off to other bookies, just like reinsurance works in the business world. Bookies are NOT gamblers, they are more like stock brokers or reinsurance brokers working as commissioned salesmen.
 


Further on the UNLV-Gopher line. Vegas doesn't have an 800-BET-NCAA phone number. The money bet in casinos will be walk up traffic and because of where Vegas is (in Vegas) most bets will be made by UNLV fans. This may very well mean that the "line" is less than a line that Sagarin might calculate as "appropriate". Gopher phanz going to the game may very well want to put a few $$$ on the Gophers. Whenever I go to vegas I always place a bet against Pittsburgh and Dallas if it's football season, because both are "America's" team and this drives their line lower than it "should" be. I've won about 70% of these bets. If it's baseball season I bet against the Yankees.
 

ncgo4 said:
Further on the UNLV-Gopher line. Vegas doesn't have an 800-BET-NCAA phone number. The money bet in casinos will be walk up traffic and because of where Vegas is (in Vegas) most bets will be made by UNLV fans. This may very well mean that the "line" is less than a line that Sagarin might calculate as "appropriate". Gopher phanz going to the game may very well want to put a few $$$ on the Gophers. Whenever I go to vegas I always place a bet against Pittsburgh and Dallas if it's football season, because both are "America's" team and this drives their line lower than it "should" be. I've won about 70% of these bets. If it's baseball season I bet against the Yankees.
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Sounds like some good advice. The only chink in the logic may be the "most bets will be made by UNLV fans" statement. There will be some UNLV fans who bet on the Rebels, but I've lived there 12 years and I haven't met 12 ardent UNLV football fans. If my wife and I do not use our tickets we have trouble giving them away. I can't imagine that too much is bet by these few ardent UNLV football fans. But if you're making $ you are probably onto something.
 

Since most of the casinos are owned by two major corporations, there won't be a lot of variance across the sportsbooks with regard to the lines -- I think the lines at MGM and NYNY are the same because they are both owned by MGM. At least that is the way it seems to me. I used to do a lot of hopping across books to get what I thought were the most favorable odds, but I just don't see the swings that I used to.

I wouldn't be surprised to see the line move down to -8 -- not that there are a lot of UNLV fans betting on them, but a lot of Big Ten fans that would say "Minnesota a nine point favorite on the road? Ha!" and taking the points.
 

I could be wrong, but I was under the impression that you could not bet on UNLV games in Las Vegas. Obviously, in the internet age, it's not too hard to find a spot to place a bet. But, I just wanted to warn those that were planning on betting the game down in Vegas...unless I'm wrong.
 



Alabama/Michigan & Boise State/Michigan State?

What are their lines for Alabama/Michigan and Boise State/Michigan State? Thanks in advance.
 

GopherHomer said:
I could be wrong, but I was under the impression that you could not bet on UNLV games in Las Vegas. Obviously, in the internet age, it's not too hard to find a spot to place a bet. But, I just wanted to warn those that were planning on betting the game down in Vegas...unless I'm wrong.
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That has not been true for over ten years. I found an article once but I'm having a tough time finding it now, but yes, you indeed can bet on UNLV games.
 

dengue, how is life out there in LV? no need to discuss finances and stuff but how about quality of things to do? good schools for kids? are the mountains fun or too far away for day tripping?
 

You can bet on UNLV games -- did it last year vs Hawaii. And remember that there are two types of bets -- against the spread and straight up. So if you want to bet on the Gophers just to win outright, you can do that, although if they are a 10 point favorite (which is what is showing at the Las Vegas Review Journal website -- www.lvrj.com), you'd probably have to bet $100 just to win $20. And if the spread goes beyond 14, they don't make a straight up line -- the payouts get so extreme, people don't want to risk $100 to win $5.

Alabama looks like an 11 point favorite, Michigan State is favored by 7.5.
 



wait!what? said:
dengue, how is life out there in LV? no need to discuss finances and stuff but how about quality of things to do? good schools for kids? are the mountains fun or too far away for day tripping?
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I like it, but it might not be for everyone. My 7 year old daughter is in public school. So far we have been satisfied, I would put her kindergarten teacher up against any teacher I had in Minnesota growing up. She was outstanding. The mountains are close, or some mountains are close. There is a small ski resort about 30 miles from town. The national parks of So Utah are beautiful (~2.5 hours). LA is about 350 miles away, we make one or two trips / year there. My daughter has chosen Disney as her birthday present the last 2 years. Will also be there for the Oregon - SC game this fall, not a bad drive at all. Phoenix is ab out 5 hours (not a great road to get there). What I really like is the winters. The average high in January is about 50 and it rarely gets below freezing at night. I hope this is what you were looking for.
 

I once heard that the change that allowed betting on local teams was known as the "Tarkanian is gone now" rule.
 

In response to the Senators John McCain's and Sam Brownback's assault on legalized sports betting in the state of Nevada during the 2000's, Nevada removed the rule prohibiting betting on local amateur sports. The Senators were pushing to prohibit betting on all amateur sports(up to and including the Olympics). Citing point shaving scandals and problem gamblers/addictions(ie. trotting out poster boy Art Schlichter), this temptation in their estimation was perverting our youth and the purity of amateur sports. This argument was so ridiculous. It was casinos that blew the whistle on point shaving scandals. Large fines have been imposed on casinos found to cater to under age bettors. The problem really existed with illegal betting outside the casinos where no regulations existed, such as bookmakers, numbers games, and others. A laughable aside to this was to see some of these lawmakers standing at dice tables one week and then hear them rail against the casinos back in congress the next.
 

Yeah, I heard the NV state funds the public schools pretty well but never ran into anyone who actually had a kid in the school system. mtn biking 365 days a yr seems cool.
 

Bookies, line setters, and sports bettors

ncgo4 said:
Again I will explain the "line" to you non-betters. Bookies do not gamble, they steal! The only purpose of the "line" is to get equal $$$ bet on both teams. When they pay out 50% of the money to the winners they keep 10% as the "vig". Thus when the day is done they make 5% profit from the entire money bet. Provided, of course, that the line has successfully split the bets 50/50.
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This is an over simplification of line setting and mostly wrong. I've worked closely with bookies and sports bettors for 7 years. A good line setter gets the majority of the money bet on the wrong side. The house edge is built in with the 5% vig but why settle for 5% when you can make 40-60%? A great line setter gauges the public's perception of a certain matchup vs the reality of that matchup and then sets the line in a way to move most of the betting to the losing side.

There certainly are situations where vegas does indeed try to get a 50/50 spread, those are the games that are too close to call. In most college football games it usually falls between 70/30 to 80/20.
 




Lakeville Goldy said:
That has not been true for over ten years. I found an article once but I'm having a tough time finding it now, but yes, you indeed can bet on UNLV games.
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Nice! I have a friend that will be excited that I was wrong about this issue. Thanks.
 

I'll easily be putting my money on the Gophers at -9! I like the Gophers by 14 or more. All business for the Gophers!
 

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