Playoff
...an 8 team playoff is the best bet, not the +1. Take the winners from the 5 major conferences (ACC, B10, B12, SEC, PAC 10) and then have 3 at large bids.
I don't think it is that nobody has figured this out, it is that there is a lot more at work than simply switching to a playoff system. Namely money, big-time sponsorships, etc.
If we ever see a playoff system, I think the key to determining how many teams are in will be to determine how many teams, in an average year, logicially have a true shot at winning a national championship. This year, pre-bowls, how many teams do you think could say they had a logical shot at winning a national title?
My guesses in no particular order:
Florida
Alabama
USC
Oklahoma
Texas
Texas Tech
Penn State
Utah
This works out quite well into 8, an easy 3-round playoff. I think four would leave potentially championship-caliber teams out, and any more than 8 may not be feasible and may be overkill. I know there will be arguments regarding Penn State after their performance vs. USC. But think of it, if not for a late interception vs. Iowa, they would quite possibly be #1 and playing for a national title next week.
The biggest problems them become: What about the current bowl system? Would the bowls then become the destination of the teams that do not make the playoff? Would the first-round playoff losers be eligible to be selected for a bowl? Would the big-time bowls (BCS bowls primarily) lose all relevance since, at best, they would have the ninth-best team in the country? My scenario has 3 Big 12 teams. Would this be allowable? How would any system cater to the heads of other "major" conferences that are left out (ACC, Big East)?
I don't think it is as black-and-white as many might think. One potential downside could definitely be undefeated major conference teams taking it easy the final week of the season if they assume they are in the playoff regardless of the turnout. This may be alleviated somewhat due to the rivalry games that are often played the final week of the season. And, no doubt, there would still be controvery over seedings, bubble teams, etc., as is seen with the NCAA basketball tournament.
I disagree with the "plus-1" idea because I don't think it solves much. This year, for instance, what if Texas looks great vs. Ohio State (or vice-versa), Texas Tech looks great vs. Mississippi (I relaize they are losing at halftime), Alabama beats Utah easily (or vice-versa). Who would play in the plus 1? The candidates would be:
Florida-Oklahoma winner
USC
Ohio State-Texas winner
Tx Tech if they win
'Bama-Utah winner
Seems like it would not solve any problems! Thoughts?
Sorry for the long ramble.
