Sometimes the truth can be painful

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Ogie Ogilthorpe

Ogie Ogilthorpe

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Okay, so maybe the clown below (JShow) is a complete idiot and he may just be trying to stir the pot. Scratch that; he's definitely an idiot, and likely just trying to stir the pot.

But the fact remains, he may not be far off on the remainder of the season. The Gophers just aren't playing really good basketball as of late so I don't think it would be wise to get hopes up all that high.

Six games left in the regular slate and anything could happen. It wouldn't surprise me if they DID win just one of the remaining games, and it wouldn't surprise me if they won 4 of them or so. Depends on which team shows up.

The team isn't blessed with great shooting or really hardly any creators right now. Their best offense right now, when not converting turnovers into easy points, may just be heaving up shots and going after offensive rebounds for putbacks.

I'll be the first to admit that I'm very concerned. A couple of nice wins has hidden a lot of warts up to this point. Just like Denny Green said, "we are who we thought we were", which is an NCAA bubble team.

I don't know what I'm more concerned about; actually not making the tournament, or the somewhat juvenile "sky is falling" paranoia and pandemonium that will likely ensue if they actually don't get their name called on Selection Sunday. If they falter down the stretch and don't get their name called on Sunday, I'll definitely not be reading the garbage being spewed here in the fallout.
 

We definitely have not been playing very well lately, but I think there are two reasons for that. We haven't been a good road team this year, which explains the poor performances against MSU and OSU, and we've also had a tendency to play down to our competition at home, while still winning, which explains Indiana. Personally, I think we'll go 3-3 down the stretch, winning each home game, and losing each road game. That should be enough for the tourney. I think you're right, we are who we thought we were, a team that guts it out on defense and the occasional great performance from somebody unexpected. We don't have the horses to go far in March, but I think we'll at least get there.
 

The truth at the moment is that we have 19 wins with 6 games to go and the BTT left. If we can't muster up three more wins against the middle of the big ten teams that we'll be playing then we shouldn't go. Even with our offensive difficulties we're still at worse a pick em in any of the ramaining contests. If we solve them then we're the faves. All things still favor us making it. The likely outcome is making the dance at this point. So let's not get down because we're not at an elite level yet.
 

Well said Ogee. The biggest problem right now is that the Gophers haven't played a lot of good basketball in the past 5-6 games. That's a major concern, and the Indiana game really hammered that point home. Wasn't real encouraged about the rest of the season when I left The Barn on Tuesday.

I'd like to think we're going to beat Northwestern and Michigan at home, but that's far from a sure thing. And Wisconsin is starting to look like Wisconsin again. One thing that does give me some comfort is overall we've been good away from The Barn, despite some unsightly stretches of basketball. We're 5-3 away from home, which is a good record. Just as our home games are no sure thing, there's no reason we can't beat Penn State and/or Michigan on the road. Illinois is the only game I'm pretty much figuring is a definite L.
 

Ogee Oglethorpe said:
Okay, so maybe the clown below (JShow) is a complete idiot and he may just be trying to stir the pot. Scratch that; he's definitely an idiot, and likely just trying to stir the pot.

But the fact remains, he may not be far off on the remainder of the season. The Gophers just aren't playing really good basketball as of late so I don't think it would be wise to get hopes up all that high.

Six games left in the regular slate and anything could happen. It wouldn't surprise me if they DID win just one of the remaining games, and it wouldn't surprise me if they won 4 of them or so. Depends on which team shows up.

The team isn't blessed with great shooting or really hardly any creators right now. Their best offense right now, when not converting turnovers into easy points, may just be heaving up shots and going after offensive rebounds for putbacks.

I'll be the first to admit that I'm very concerned. A couple of nice wins has hidden a lot of warts up to this point. Just like Denny Green said, "we are who we thought we were", which is an NCAA bubble team.

I don't know what I'm more concerned about; actually not making the tournament, or the somewhat juvenile "sky is falling" paranoia and pandemonium that will likely ensue if they actually don't get their name called on Selection Sunday. If they falter down the stretch and don't get their name called on Sunday, I'll definitely not be reading the garbage being spewed here in the fallout.
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22 or 23 W in regular season. 1 or 2 W in Big 10 tourney. Then 1 W in NCAA. Maybe 25 W total.
 


Though they have not been playing well lately, in the second half of the Indiana game, they seemed to all of a sudden "get it". I hope I am right on this that there intensity on Defense took a next step and things started to click with them. I was watching it on BTN, and all of a sudden, once Nolan made that steal, breakaway and jam, it all of a sudden came together for them.

I think they will be all right for the rest of the season. Actually I think they will get at least 3 more wins.
 


The key is...

Momentum is a funny thing. It can be a very powerful factor, both good and bad.

What I spoke of initially largely addresses worst case scenario. Conversely, if they can put together a good half or complete game of basketball in the next two road games, things can start heading in the right direction in a hurry.

I'm just saying at this point, from what I've seen over the course of the season, it's just about damn near impossible to predict what these guys are going to do, even moreso than usual. I can't remember a Gopher team to this extent where you just had no idea how they were going to come out, particularly this late in the season.

I've been fairly supportive of the extended roster but I do think it's probably hurt continuity. I certainly hope it's resulted in the Gophers being fresher as they head down the stretch than most teams they'll be playing. In one of the Gophers' recent games (Purdue I think?), the opponent had 3 starters play all 40 minutes. That's a tall order.

If nothing else, the last couple weeks should be pretty interesting...
 

Hopefully our depth will stave off freshmen fatigue. Our depth and D make it unlikely a worse case scenario would come to pass. It doesn't look good for advancing in the big dance though. maybe a good matchup gets us a victory. Hopefully we'll get a quick win or two soon to take some of the scare out of the end run.
 



Don't discount the negative momentum of our upcoming opponents. Michigan and Penn State have been backsliding for the last few weeks.
 

Competition

Our level of competition has a lot to do with it.

We have lost twice to Michigan State (who is clearly better then us...and one of the top programs in the country. Rated 9th right now, is a top 5 program in my opinion)

We have lost to Purdue (who have been a top 15-25 team all year).

We lost to Ohio State on the road (a top 25 team).

Then we lost a game on the road to Northwestern. This loss frustrated me until they went on the road and beat Mich. St. I guess anything can happen in college basketball.

Of these five games, I was not surprised to see them lose four of them.

The win at home vs. Indiana (our poor play) is more of a concern to me than any of the games we lost. But I have the confidence that we will win three of the next six and hopefully four of the next six to end up 22-8 or 23-7 (by the end of the regular season). I expect the team to be playing in the NCAA's this year. They are 19-5 and have games coming up they should win.
 

And poor play with the team sick while facing the worst Big Ten team in history screams of lazyness/distraction more than anything alarming. We didn't exactly blow folks away in the non-conference season against worse teams. We shall see though.
 

One thing for sure with these final 6 games is that everyone is going to be hard-fought and go down to the wire. The offense needs to play much better in the half-court and when given the ball down low, the bigs have to man up and take it up instead of passing it back out where it will inevitably stay for the next 30 seconds. I like our chances of making the tourney if Tubby starts pressing more like he did against Wisconsin where we were able to get easy points instead of having to run "plays" in the half-court.
 



Tubby will pull down at least three of the next six. One more in the BTT and we will be fine.
 

Maybe they just need a big win and things will get rolling, so to speak. I agree OO that lately they are a confused team, but with time they'll get back in the groove. Flu and illness will go away and (hopefully) energy will come back. IMO that's what has been missing the most.
 

The remainder of this season should give us some insight as to just how good our coach is. Under the previous coach I would now expect a late season swoon and a NIT bid. I expect more from Tubby.
 

Teams go through streaks. I think Tubby will help them regain their composure and they'll win 3 more regular season games and make the tournament.

Just saw the Illini sneak past Northwestern. Fun finish.
 

Roy Christensen said:
The remainder of this season should give us some insight as to just how good our coach is. Under the previous coach I would now expect a late season swoon and a NIT bid. I expect more from Tubby.
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I think the Gophers will finish strong. Coach Smith usually has his teams playing their best ball heading into the post season. The Big 10 is more competitive from top to bottom this year than it has been for awhile and I think that is one of the main reasons you've seen such shocking results like Northwestern beating a Michigan State or a Wisky losing 6 straight or a Ohio State team that looked lost rebounding strong.

Michigan, Purdue and Minnesota look all to be rising again as programs who will challenge year in and year out for the Big 10 title. Northwestern and Penn State are looking to be more than just doormats. If the talent starts flooding back into the Midwest and/or staying home to programs not named Michigan State like it has been I predict the Big 10 will regain some of the luster nationally it's been lacking as a conference lately.
 

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