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Playing out the bubble
Memphis, Washington, Dayton and Minnesota should benefit from Championship Week
The bubble this year is, typically, fairly confusing; ESPN Bracketologist Joe Lunardi currently has it as 20 teams battling for nine spots.
With all those teams heading into Championship Week -- some starting today -- let's look at the paths they need to take to get off said bubble before Sunday.
Here's what we are going to do. Based on the most recent Lunardi Odds Rundown, we'll look at 12 teams -- the last four in, the first four out, and the next four out. We will then look at each team's first conference tourney opponent as well as possible subsequent opponents. To determine who will win these hypothetical matchups, we will use adjusted scoring margin (found here) -- this metric measures margin of victory in conjunction with a team's strength of schedule, making it a strong predictive power rating.
In each case, the higher ASM wins. Remember, Bracketology is a snapshot, and not a projection, and a lot can change in the next week.
The Last Four In
Memphis Tigers (23-8):
The Tigers are set to open against Houston in the C-USA tournament, and they should win. They would then get UAB and UTEP , in order. Memphis has the highest ASM in Conference USA, so the Tigers should be favored to win the tourney. If they do that, they'd get the automatic bid anyway, making their bubble status moot. UAB is among the next four out, and Joe Lunardi currently puts its tourney chances at 25 percent. A loss to Memphis would all but eliminate the Blazers from consideration.
Arizona State Sun Devils (22-9):
If things play out right, we should get the Sun Devils taking on the Washington Huskies -- one of the first four out -- in the Pac-10's late semifinal on Friday night. It would be as close to a play-in game as you can get. ASM says the Huskies should win, which would give them a leg up for one of those last four spots.
San Diego State Aztecs (22-8):
Things are pretty bleak for the Aztecs. Assuming they beat Colorado State in the first round of the Mountain West tourney, they get New Mexico in the second. That's a likely L, and a trip to the three-letter tournament.
Illinois Fighting Illini (18-13):
Believe it or not, Wisconsin -- the Illini's first-round opponent in the Big Ten tourney -- has the highest ASM in the conference (15.55). A first-round loss would crush Illinois' hopes.
The First Four Out
Washington Huskies (21-9):
After beating Arizona State (see above), ASM has the Huskies losing to Cal in the Pac-10 finals -- but if they get that far, they should be dancing anyway.
Seton Hall Pirates (18-11):
After dispatching the Providence Friars in the Big East's first round (Tuesday, 7 p.m. ET, ESPN), the Pirates will get Notre Dame . ASM says the Irish are slightly superior. And even a win against ND (RPI of 57) might not be enough for the Pirates, who would get a date with the Pittsburgh Panthers if they outfight the Irish.
Rhode Island Rams (21-8):
Based on ASM, the Rams should beat St. Joseph's in the A-10's first round, but lose to Temple in their next game. URI is 0-4 against top-25 RPI teams this year, and that lack of a big win is the biggest black mark on its résumé.
Mississippi Rebels (21-9):
In the SEC tourney, the Rebels await the winner of Tennessee and LSU -- likely to be Tennessee -- but they have a lower ASM than the Vols. That would mean an early exit for the Rebels, and no NCAA tournament bid.
The Next Four Out
Dayton Flyers (19-11):
Only one team in the A-10 has a higher ASM than Dayton (10.2), and that's the Xavier Musketeers (13.4), the Flyers' likely second-round foe. That tough draw could be all that stands between Dayton and a bid.
Minnesota Golden Gophers (18-12):
The Gophers are another team with a surprisingly strong ASM (12.2). They should beat Penn State in the Big Ten's first round -- and if they can squeeze by Michigan State in the next round (ASM of 12.5), that could launch them into the "last four in." Don't sleep on the Gophers.
UAB Blazers (23-7):
See Memphis (above).
Mississippi State Bulldogs (21-10):
Like Rhode Island, the Bulldogs are 0-4 against the RPI top 25. If they can handle the Florida Gators, that would pit them against the Vanderbilt Commodores (RPI of 22) in the SEC semis. ASM favors the Commodores, but a victory for MSU would probably put them in.
What have we learned? If ASM is to be believed as a predictor of success, Memphis and Washington are in good shape for two of the final four spots. After that, Dayton and Minnesota are solid bets to jump from "next four out" to "last four in."
Matt Meyers is an associate editor of ESPN The Magazine and a contributor to ESPN Insider. You can find his online archives here.
