Snapshot Look At Field of 68 (through March 1): 16 available bids

[SelectionSunday]

I currently have 52 of the 68 NCAA bids accounted for. Among the 16 available at-large bids, there are 7 teams I've deemed "one win away" from clinching their spot in the field.

RPI rank is noted in parentheses. I have included each team's record vs. the RPI top 50 and 100, road record, and non-conference SOS. Teams with non-conference SOS rankings of #200 or worse are noted in bold/italic. Generally speaking, the Selection Committee frowns upon NC-SOS rankings south of 200, which could be bad news, especially, for bubble teams like Kansas State and Georgia Tech.

Conference Leader/Highest Remaining Conference Tournament Seed (32)
Villanova (1) – 10-2 vs. RPI top 50, 16-3 vs. RPI top 100, 9-2 road, 40 NCSOS
Kansas (2) – 7-2 vs. RPI top 50, 15-3 vs. RPI top 100, 9-1 road, 31 NCSOS
Oregon (4) – 4-2 vs. RPI top 50, 15-3 vs. RPI top 100, 6-3 road, 72 NCSOS
North Carolina (5) – 9-4 vs. RPI top 50, 14-6 vs. RPI top 100, 7-5 road, 41 NCSOS
Kentucky (8) – 7-4 vs. RPI top 50, 15-5 vs. RPI top 100, 6-3 road, 7 NCSOS
Gonzaga (11) – 5-0 vs. RPI top 50, 10-1 vs. RPI top 100, 9-0 road, 59 NCSOS
SMU (19) – 1-3 vs. RPI top 50, 8-4 vs. RPI top 100, 8-3 road, 133 NCSOS
Purdue (20) – 6-4 vs. RPI top 50, 14-6 vs. RPI top 100, 5-4 road, 136 NCSOS
Dayton (21) – 4-3 vs. RPI top 50, 11-4 vs. RPI top 100, 7-2 road, 56 NCSOS
Middle Tennessee (30) – 2-1 vs. RPI top 50, 4-1 vs. RPI top 100, 11-2 road, 24 NCSOS
Illinois State (32) – 1-1 vs. RPI top 50, 2-3 vs. RPI top 100, 9-4 road, 122 NCSOS
Texas-Arlington (34) – 1-2 vs. RPI top 50, 2-3 vs. RPI top 100, 10-6 road, 44 NCSOS
NC-Wilmington (37) – 0-1 vs. RPI top 50, 5-3 vs. RPI top 100, 11-3 road, 94 NCSOS
Nevada (42) – 0-1 vs. RPI top 50, 5-3 vs. RPI top 100, 8-4 road, 162 NCSOS
Monmouth (43) – 0-2 vs. RPI top 50, 1-3 vs. RPI top 100, 12-4 road, 117 NCSOS
Vermont (50) – 0-2 vs. RPI top 50, 0-4 vs. RPI top 100, 11-3 road, 101 NCSOS
Princeton (54) – 0-2 vs. RPI top 50, 1-4 vs. RPI top 100, 10-4 road, 73 NCSOS
Belmont (57) – 0-4 vs. RPI top 50, 0-4 vs. RPI top 100, 10-3 road, 78 NCSOS
Akron (65) – 0-2 vs. RPI top 50, 0-2 vs. RPI top 100, 6-5 road, 226 NCSOS
Bucknell (72) – 1-2 vs. RPI top 50, 2-3 vs. RPI top 100, 9-6 road, 97 NCSOS
Winthrop (74) – 0-2 vs. RPI top 50, 3-3 vs. RPI top 100, 12-3 road, 33 NCSOS
Bakersfield (75) – 0-2 vs. RPI top 50, 2-4 vs. RPI top 100, 8-6 road, 210 NCSOS
Florida Gulf Coast (92) – 1-3 vs. RPI top 50, 1-3 vs. RPI top 100, 10-3 road, 87 NCSOS
NC-Greensboro (102) – 0-2 vs. RPI top 50, 4-4 vs. RPI top 100, 8-4 road, 228 NCSOS
Oakland (103) – 0-2 vs. RPI top 50, 5-2 vs. RPI top 100, 9-2 road, 273 NCSOS
South Dakota (106) – 0-1 vs. RPI top 50, 0-3 vs. RPI top 100, 7-7 road, 201 NCSOS
Texas Southern (135) – 0-5 vs. RPI top 50, 0-6 vs. RPI top 100, 11-11 road, 15 NCSOS
UC Irvine (149) – 0-3 vs. RPI top 50, 0-7 vs. RPI top 100, 7-8 road, 22 NCSOS
North Dakota (152) – 0-0 vs. RPI top 50, 1-1 vs. RPI top 100, 7-6 road, 57 NCSOS
Mount St. Mary’s (162) – 0-6 vs. RPI top 50, 0-7 vs. RPI top 100, 8-11 road, 10 NCSOS
New Orleans (173) – 0-3 vs. RPI top 50, 0-3 vs. RPI top 100, 6-8 road, 95 NCSOS
NCCU (208) – 0-0 vs. RPI top 50, 1-1 vs. RPI top 100, 11-5 road, 301 NCSOS

Locks (20)
Florida (3) – 6-6 vs. RPI top 50, 16-6 vs. RPI top 100, 8-3 road, 6 NCSOS
Baylor (6) – 9-4 vs. RPI top 50, 14-5 vs. RPI top 100, 5-4 road, 9 NCSOS
Louisville (7) – 6-7 vs. RPI top 50, 13-7 vs. RPI top 100, 5-5 road, 8 NCSOS
Arizona (9) – 4-4 vs. RPI top 50, 12-4 vs. RPI top 100, 8-1 road, 28 NCSOS
Butler (10) – 10-2 vs. RPI top 50, 17-4 vs. RPI top 100, 7-4 road, 13 NCSOS
Florida State (12) – 9-3 vs. RPI top 50, 13-6 vs. RPI top 100, 3-6 road, 104 NCSOS
Duke (13) – 10-5 vs. RPI top 50, 14-6 vs. RPI top 100, 3-5 road, 76 NCSOS
Cincinnati (14) – 3-3 vs. RPI top 50, 6-4 vs. RPI top 100, 7-3 road, 37 NCSOS
UCLA (15) – 5-3 vs. RPI top 50, 11-3 vs. RPI top 100, 8-2 road, 253 NCSOS
Virginia (16) – 6-7 vs. RPI top 50, 12-9 vs. RPI top 100, 7-5 road, 32 NCSOS
Saint Mary’s (17) – 2-3 vs. RPI top 50, 7-3 vs. RPI top 100, 10-1 road, 58 NCSOS
Minnesota (18) – 7-5 vs. RPI top 50, 13-7 vs. RPI top 100, 5-4 road, 26 NCSOS
Notre Dame (23) – 6-6 vs. RPI top 50, 11-7 vs. RPI top 100, 5-3 road, 183 NCSOS
West Virginia (24) – 5-3 vs. RPI top 50, 11-4 vs. RPI top 100, 6-4 road, 230 NCSOS
Creighton (25) – 5-4 vs. RPI top 50, 10-7 vs. RPI top 100, 7-3 road, 160 NCSOS
Maryland (26) – 4-3 vs. RPI top 50, 14-7 vs. RPI top 100, 8-2 road, 113 NCSOS
South Carolina (27) – 4-5 vs. RPI top 50, 12-7 vs. RPI top 100, 6-4 road, 71 NCSOS
Iowa State (28) – 5-6 vs. RPI top 50, 8-8 vs. RPI top 100, 5-5 road, 125 NCSOS
Wisconsin (33) – 3-6 vs. RPI top 50, 13-7 vs. RPI top 100, 5-5 road, 267 NCSOS
Virginia Tech (36) – 4-6 vs. RPI top 50, 12-7 vs. RPI top 100, 4-6 road, 288 NCSOS

(* denotes currently in Field of 68)

Almost There/Need 1 More Win (7)
*VCU (22) – 2-3 vs. RPI top 50, 7-5 vs. RPI top 100, 7-4 road, 70 NCSOS
*Arkansas (29) – 3-6 vs. RPI top 50, 10-6 vs. RPI top 100, 6-5 road, 39 NCSOS
*Oklahoma State (31) – 3-8 vs. RPI top 50, 7-9 vs. RPI top 100, 7-5 road, 47 NCSOS
*Miami (38) – 4-8 vs. RPI top 50, 8-9 vs. RPI top 100, 4-5 road, 220 NCSOS
*Michigan State (45) – 6-7 vs. RPI top 50, 11-11 vs. RPI top 100, 2-6 road, 19 NCSOS
*Northwestern (46) – 4-6 vs. RPI top 50, 10-9 vs. RPI top 100, 5-5 road, 137 NCSOS
*Michigan (47) – 4-8 vs. RPI top 50, 11-11 vs. RPI top 100, 2-8 road, 89 NCSOS

Bubblicious (18)
*Xavier (35) – 3-8 vs. RPI top 50, 8-11 vs. RPI top 100, 3-8 road
*USC (39) – 2-5 vs. RPI top 50, 5-7 vs. RPI top 100, 6-5 road, 169 NCSOS
Wake Forest (40) – 2-9 vs. RPI top 50, 7-12 vs. RPI top 100, 5-8 road, 14 NCSOS
*Wichita State (41) – 1-4 vs. RPI top 50, 2-4 vs. RPI top 100, 10-1 road, 168 NCSOS
*Rhode Island (44) – 2-3 vs. RPI top 50, 4-7 vs. RPI top 100, 7-5 road, 20 NCSOS
*Seton Hall (48) – 3-6 vs. RPI top 50, 9-9 vs. RPI top 100, 3-6 road, 170 NCSOS
Vanderbilt (49) – 4-7 vs. RPI top 50, 9-13 vs. RPI top 100, 5-6 road, 1 NCSOS
Georgia (51) – 1-7 vs. RPI top 50, 9-11 vs. RPI top 100, 5-6 road, 17 NCSOS
*Cal (52) – 1-7 vs. RPI top 50, 4-8 vs. RPI top 100, 3-4 road, 54 NCSOS
Houston (53) – 2-4 vs. RPI top 50, 3-5 vs. RPI top 100, 6-4 road, 93 NCSOS
*Providence (55) – 6-7 vs. RPI top 50, 10-8 vs, RPI top 100, 3-7 road, 175 NCSOS
Illinois (56) – 5-8 vs. RPI top 50, 11-12 vs. RPI top 100, 3-5 road, 50 NCSOS
*Marquette (58) – 6-6 vs. RPI top 50, 9-10 vs. RPI top 100, 4-6 road, 206 NCSOS
Kansas State (59) – 3-8 vs. RPI top 50, 5-10 vs. RPI top 100, 6-6 road, 223 NCSOS
BYU (68) – 1-4 vs. RPI top 50, 5-6 vs. RPI top 100, 5-4 road, 118 NCSOS
*Syracuse (79) – 6-7 vs. RPI top 50, 8-10 vs. RPI top 100, 2-8 road, 177 NCSOS
Iowa (90) – 4-8 vs. RPI top 50, 7-11 vs. RPI top 100, 2-7 road, 140 NCSOS
Georgia Tech (94) – 4-7 vs. RPI top 50, 7-11 vs. RPI top 100, 2-9 road, 268 NCSOS

Last 4 In: Wichita State (41), Rhode Island (44), Cal (52), Syracuse (79)

First 4 Out: Wake Forest (40), Houston (53), Illinois (56), Kansas State (59)

Others Considered (5): Vanderbilt (49), Georgia (51), BYU (68), Iowa (90), Georgia Tech (94)

Non-Power 6 At-Larges (5): Cincinnati (14), Saint Mary’s (17), VCU (22), Wichita State (41), Rhode Island (44)

 

[upnorthkid]

Question. Do you think witchita gets in based on their resume if they aren't witchita?

 

[SelectionSunday]

Question. Do you think witchita gets in based on their resume if they aren't witchita?

Great question.

Generally speaking I think the committee does a really good job selecting the teams every year, but I would acknowledge they are human.

If we replaced the name Wichita State with "North Dakota" or "Winthrop" and they had the same resume, I think we'd still be discussing them as a potential at-large, but they wouldn't be getting the same respect as Wichita State. Personally, I think the Shockers are a tournament-caliber team, but if they get an at-large with that resume, that's really questionable in my mind.

The potential "non-Power 6" at-large team people should be discussing is Middle Tennessee, not Wichita. Middle Tennessee is much more deserving of an at-large bid than the Shockers.

 

[BarnBoy]

I have Post Traumatic Bubble Bursting Syndrome.

We're like a lock lock, not just a lock. Right?

 

[upnorthkid]

I have Post Traumatic Bubble Bursting Syndrome.

We're like a lock lock, not just a lock. Right?

we are for sure now

 

[Ski U Mah 55]

I live in Wichita and even the most die hard fans acknowledge that the team is having a down year. Hopefully they can win the MVC tourney and get in on merit alone.

 

[BillyGopher]

I think Illinois has a just as good of a chance at getting in than MSU. since 2011 no team with 14 losses has earned an at large bid - without a win at Maryland this weekend is their resume really good enough to be trend setter? I'm just rooting hard for Illinois to get in, their road win is exactly what's needed to have a top 15 resume and with a win at Wisconsin maybe the team with the most top 50 RPI road wins.

 

[dex8425]

Didn't see this posted elsewhere, but assuming Illinois beats Rutgers and Iowa beats PSU, are they both in? The Big ten would then get 9 teams in, which would tie the ACC for most appearances. Nevermind, WF is probably in now, meaning the ACC will get ten. I'd guess Iowa needs at least one win in the BTT.

 

[SelectionSunday]

Didn't see this posted elsewhere, but assuming Illinois beats Rutgers and Iowa beats PSU, are they both in? The Big ten would then get 9 teams in, which would tie the ACC for most appearances. Nevermind, WF is probably in now, meaning the ACC will get ten. I'd guess Iowa needs at least one win in the BTT.

Illinois and Iowa both will need to do work (at least 2 wins) in Washington D.C., especially Iowa because Illinois swept the Hawkeyes.

 

[dtrain19]

SS...guessing you're the best guy to ask. Any idea where the Gophers might be playing first round? Is it possibility the Gophers are playing Sunday for a trip to Milwaukee for first round. Thanks


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[SelectionSunday]

Gophers best shot at Milwaukee: Win 2 more, hope Purdue does well & sent to Indy

SS...guessing you're the best guy to ask. Any idea where the Gophers might be playing first round? Is it possibility the Gophers are playing Sunday for a trip to Milwaukee for first round. Thanks


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Just a hunch.

I think if Gophers win 2 more games (any combination, that will mean they've reached BTT semifinals) there's a very good chance they'll get shipped to Milwaukee. Can't see any scenario where at least 1 B1G team isn't in Milwaukee. (could be 2)

We probably want Purdue to have a good B1G Tournament, and the Badgers a bad one. If Boilers end up as a #3 or #4 seed, decent chance they'll go to Indianapolis. If Boilers don't go to Indy, then I think they'll be placed in Milwaukee.

With the way UW has finished I don't think the Badgers will get to play in Milwaukee, but if they make a run in D.C., Badgers could come back into play for Milwaukee.