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SelectionSunday

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The Gophers' RPI improved 9 spots after last night's win. All info is courtesy of CollegeRPI.com.

Minnesota Gophers
Record: 13-7, 4-4
RPI: #55
Overall Strength of Schedule: 21
Nonconference Strength of Schedule: 75
Road/Neutral Record: 2-6
Record vs. Top 50: 2-4
Record vs. 51-100: 1-2
Record vs. 101-200: 5-0
Record vs. 201+: 5-1
Best 3 Wins: Butler (#26), Ohio State (#43), Northwestern (#67)
Projected Regular-Season Record: 18-12, 9-9
Projected RPI: 75
 

If we beat Ohio State this week will Katz recognize it as the first OSU win against Turner led OSU?
 

SS,
I know that the projected record isn't your own projection, but I have a tough time seeing us finishing at only 9-9. I see 10-8 and maybe even 11-7 if we can beat Purdue... What do you yourself project for a final BT record at this point in the season?
 

9-9 sounds about right

I'll be honest. I think 9-9 is about right. I can see 10-8.

11-7, just can't see it. In addition to protecting our home court the rest of the season, we really need to beat somebody decent (OSU, NW and/or Ill) on the road to help our road/neutral shortcoming. In all honesty, I think our best chance for a good road win is at Illinois, even though we haven't won there in ages.

The strange thing is, if we somehow pull off an unexpected upset in Columbus this weekend, I think we'll be back in decent shape, with plenty more opportunities for top-50 and top-100 type wins.
 

SelectionSunday said:
if we somehow pull off an unexpected upset in Columbus this weekend, I think we'll be back in decent shape, with plenty more opportunities for top-50 and top-100 type wins.
Click to expand...

If we somehow pull of an unexpected upset in Columbus this weekend, then discussion about going 11-7 in the league becomes legit. If we don't win Sunday, then I'm with you, we're looking at 10-8 or 9-9.

By pure oddsmakers, I'm guessing we'll be favorites in either five or six of the final ten games.

Favored: @PSU, vs. Mich, vs. Wis, vs. IU, vs. IA
Dogs: @OSU, @NW, @ Ill, @Mich
Tossup: vs. PU (based on the fact we were favored at home vs. MSU, we could be favored vs. PU)

So, if we win the "games we're supposed to" then we're looking at 10-8 or 9-9.
 


I think it's going to come down to the last three games on the schedule, @Illinois, @Michigan, Iowa. If we think we're on the edge of our seats now, I don't think we've seen nothin' yet.
 


14-4

Hoff doesn't miss another shot from downtown for the rest of the season.

Who's with me?!
 

Gophers NEED 7-3 Or Better

4 or 5 W at home and 2 or 3 W away for 20-10 headed into Big 10 tourney, then 1 or 2 W there.
 



If the Gophers finish 20-10

FOT, you're pretty much saying the Gophers need to win a minimum of 8 games (including the BTT) from here on out to garner a NCAA bid. That means at worst you think they need to go 21-11 or 22-11 just to get into the tournament. I strongly disagree; I say they'll be lock city if they simply win 7 more games prior to the BTT.

I'll make a deal with you. ...

If the Gophers finish exactly 20-10 in the regular season, then lose their first game at the BTT, yet still make the NCAAs with a 20-11 record, then you no longer can post stats regarding Tubby's coaching at Tulsa, Georgia, Kentucky, Dundas, Osakis and all places Timbuktu.

If the Gophers finish 20-10 in the regular season, then lose their first game at the BTT, and then don't make the NCAAs at 20-11, then I promise to never again (in this forum) criticize your friend's nonconference home scheduling, even if the schedules continue to resemble your friend's first 3 seasons.

Do we have a deal?
 

SelectionSunday said:
FOT, you're pretty much saying the Gophers need to win a minimum of 8 games (including the BTT) from here on out to garner a NCAA bid. That means at worst you think they need to go 21-11 or 22-11 just to get into the tournament. I strongly disagree; I say they'll be lock city if they simply win 7 more games prior to the BTT.

I'll make a deal with you. ...

If the Gophers finish exactly 20-10 in the regular season, then lose their first game at the BTT, yet still make the NCAAs with a 20-11 record, then you no longer can post stats regarding Tubby's coaching at Tulsa, Georgia, Kentucky, Dundas, Osakis and all places Timbuktu.

If the Gophers finish 20-10 in the regular season, then lose their first game at the BTT, and then don't make the NCAAs at 20-11, then I promise to never again (in this forum) criticize your friend's nonconference home scheduling, even if the schedules continue to resemble your friend's first 3 seasons.

Do we have a deal?
Click to expand...

Oh brother, now you've done it. I had been fighting this fight with him on several different threads, but about a month ago simply gave up. It is an absolute no-brainer that 20-10 regular season locks the Gophers into the NCAA regardless of what they at Indy. EVERY bit of past history/evidence indicates that. There is NO existing case in the HISTORY of the Big Ten/NCAA tourney that would suggest otherwise, but FOT is still beating the drum, for whatever reason. He is either too stubborn to admit he was a little aggressive when he first proclaimed 21 wins+ or bust, or he simply doesn't understand the selection process. Not sure which it is, but I gave up long ago arguing about with him. It is maddening to keep your dog in the fight with him.
 

And now he's trying to subtly change his tune, assuming nobody will notice. Now it's been softened to 21 might be enough, while folks like you, BGA & present company have held firm (without changing our song & dance) that 11-7 is lock city. If the NCAA doesn't occur at 11-7, I'll gladly be the first to admit it here & face the music.

Now the hard part. ... the Gophers somehow have to go 7-3 the rest of the way before Indy.
 

SelectionSunday said:
And now he's trying to subtly change his tune, assuming nobody will notice. Now it's been softened to 21 might be enough, while folks like you, BGA & present company have held firm (without changing our song & dance) that 11-7 is lock city. If the NCAA doesn't occur at 11-7, I'll gladly be the first to admit it here & face the music.

Now the hard part. ... the Gophers somehow have to go 7-3 the rest of the way before Indy.
Click to expand...

I'm gonna agree that 11-7 locks us in. But I dont think 10-8 will.

A win at OSU this weekend will put us right back in the mix. And really, do any of our remaining games look un-winnable? Granted we could lose 6 of 10 and it would not really suprise me, but if we went 8-2 I would not be shocked either.
 



tjgopher said:
Oh brother, now you've done it. I had been fighting this fight with him on several different threads, but about a month ago simply gave up. It is an absolute no-brainer that 20-10 regular season locks the Gophers into the NCAA regardless of what they at Indy. EVERY bit of past history/evidence indicates that. There is NO existing case in the HISTORY of the Big Ten/NCAA tourney that would suggest otherwise, but FOT is still beating the drum, for whatever reason. He is either too stubborn to admit he was a little aggressive when he first proclaimed 21 wins+ or bust, or he simply doesn't understand the selection process. Not sure which it is, but I gave up long ago arguing about with him. It is maddening to keep your dog in the fight with him.
Click to expand...

Last year Penn State went 22-11 in the regular season and 11-7 in the Big Ten and didn't make the big dance. I wouldn't be so confident about a 20 win season guaranteeing the gophers will make the field of 64/65.
 

RunGopherRun said:
Last year Penn State went 22-11 in the regular season and 11-7 in the Big Ten and didn't make the big dance. I wouldn't be so confident about a 20 win season guaranteeing the gophers will make the field of 64/65.
Click to expand...

10-8 actually
 

11-7 does it, especially when you consider that the Gophers would have to either:

- Get at minimum 2 more road wins (PSU & NW/Mich) - plus home wins against Wisconsin & Purdue,

OR

- Get 3 road wins (one of which would have to be either be against Mich, Ill, or OSU) plus 1 home win against Wisc/Purdue

The second scenario would be the most shaky case for the Gophers heading into the BTT - but barring some big time upsets in the non-bcs league tourneys I can't see how they would be left out even then.
 



RunGopherRun said:
You're right, it was 10-8. But still that was a better record than the Gophers had in Big 10 play. Was the only thing that got the Gophs in the Louisville win?
Click to expand...

Wins over OSU, Ill, 2 vs Wisc, PSU, etc.

The better question is what kept PSU out, there best non-con win was Mt. St. Mary's
 


RunGopherRun said:
Last year Penn State went 22-11 in the regular season and 11-7 in the Big Ten and didn't make the big dance. I wouldn't be so confident about a 20 win season guaranteeing the gophers will make the field of 64/65.
Click to expand...

As I said, there is NO existing case in the history of the Big Ten/NCAA relationship where an 11-win regular season in the Big Ten has not been enough to make the tourney. Ever. Including Penn State last year, which won 10-games and played the weakest non-conference in the league. Weak non-conference schedule, a loss to lowly Iowa late in the year, a quick exit in the Big Ten tourney, and a boatload of other good teams in the Big Ten gave the committee a tough choice, but they chose PSU as the odd man out (and barely). And, that was with 10 wins. Had they beaten Iowa late in the year to get to 11-wins, they would have been the No. 2 seed in the BTT and would have made the NCAA tourney. That's how big the difference is between 10- and 11-wins in the regular season Big Ten schedule. I might add that PSU became only the 3rd or 4th team to win 10 and get left out - otherwise EVERY other team in Big Ten history that has won 10 has also made the NCAAs. If we win 10, we're likely on the better half of the bubble, but sweating it out. If we win 11, we're in.

Bash our current schedule all you want, but right now it stands as the 21st toughest schedule in the country!

We are an absolute lock with an 11-7 record.
 

tjgopher said:
As I said, there is NO existing case in the history of the Big Ten/NCAA relationship where an 11-win regular season in the Big Ten has not been enough to make the tourney. Ever. Including Penn State last year, which won 10-games and played the weakest non-conference in the league. Weak non-conference schedule, a loss to lowly Iowa late in the year, a quick exit in the Big Ten tourney, and a boatload of other good teams in the Big Ten gave the committee a tough choice, but they chose PSU as the odd man out (and barely). And, that was with 10 wins. Had they beaten Iowa late in the year to get to 11-wins, they would have been the No. 2 seed in the BTT and would have made the NCAA tourney. That's how big the difference is between 10- and 11-wins in the regular season Big Ten schedule. I might add that PSU became only the 3rd or 4th team to win 10 and get left out - otherwise EVERY other team in Big Ten history that has won 10 has also made the NCAAs. If we win 10, we're likely on the better half of the bubble, but sweating it out. If we win 11, we're in.

Bash our current schedule all you want, but right now it stands as the 21st toughest schedule in the country!

We are an absolute lock with an 11-7 record.
Click to expand...

While I agree, some of this argument doesn't matter. History can't be the reason we will make it at 11-7.

In 1993, there was no evidence of a 9-9 BT team missing the tournament. In 1996, there was no evidence of a 10-8 BT team missing the tournament. In both years, guess which team changed history? Of course it was Minnesota. So who's to say we won't be the first 11-7 team left out?
 


WilliamsArenaGuy said:
While I agree, some of this argument doesn't matter. History can't be the reason we will make it at 11-7.

In 1993, there was no evidence of a 9-9 BT team missing the tournament. In 1996, there was no evidence of a 10-8 BT team missing the tournament. In both years, guess which team changed history? Of course it was Minnesota. So who's to say we won't be the first 11-7 team left out?
Click to expand...

Ah yes, I remember that very well.
 

'93 we deserved a bid, '96 we didn't

In '93, I thought the Gophers got hosed. It's really the only year I ever thought the Gophers got a raw deal from the Selection Committee. Outside the conference they beat a NCAA-quality Memphis State team with Penny Hardaway, and they also had some significant wins (Illinois, Iowa, Purdue) within the conference. A side note: the Gophers also won at Santa Clara that year, which went on to defeat #2 seed Arizona in the NCAAs. Santa Clara had a freshman point guard named Steve Nash.

In '96, despite the strong finish, I didn't think they deserved a bid. Gophers beat no one of consequence outside of the Big 10, and they only had 3 wins (one of which was Valpo) over teams that ended up in the NCAA. In hindsight, maybe getting left out in '96 ended up being an added incentive for the following season (that never happened).
 

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