SI projects Amir Coffey will average 9.7 points per game; 22nd in nation for freshmen

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-- Sports Illustrated college basketball writer Luke Winn posted a story Monday morning that used their college basketball projection formula to predict the points per game for the top 50 incoming freshmen in the country. Coffey was ranked 22nd with 9.7 points per game. That was third in the Big Ten behind Michigan State's McDonald All-Americans Miles Bridges (10th nationally with 12.5 ppg) and Joshua Langford (15th nationally with 10.2).

For those of you who think Coffey should average much more than that this year, just remember big-time scoring freshmen don't come around that often.

Last season, Jordan Murphy averaged 11.6 points per game. It was the eighth highest freshman scoring average in the program history and the most since NBA veteran Kris Humphries' school freshman record 21.7 points per game in 2003-04.

http://www.startribune.com/reggie-l...t-drills-but-not-being-rushed-back/397330111/

Here is the SI article:

http://www.si.com/college-basketbal...-fultz-jayson-tatum?xid=socialflow_twitter_si

Go Gophers!!
 

Has SI done this before? There is no way this formula can be accurate.
 

9.7 doesn't seem like a lot but I don't see Coffey's strength as scoring. But I also didn't see him much as a senior when he averaged 20. I'd be surprised if it's much higher than 10 and less surprised if it's 7 or 8. Pretty hard to know...if he's the featured guy he could average 15 to 20. If he's a distributor which is where he is being currently praised then 7 or 8 seems likely. Impossible to know how teams use guys. Not knowing who the other freshmen are besides the two Michigan State guys is Coffey likely to be the third best scorer among incoming freshmen? I hope so!! (I guess there are not really a lot of Big Ten candidates listed in the top 35 or so.)

In Miles Bridges highlight tape I'm pretty confident he finds ways to score.
 


Coffey

I would be surprised if Coffey actually averages almost 10 pts per game. This is a very deep team. His versatility is his biggest asset. He is really unselfish. Not a great 3 pt shooter at this point either.

I believe Mason and Murphy will lead the team in scoring. I have Coffey for around 8pts, 4 reb, 2ass, 1 stl, 1blk, per game.

60's Guy said:
9.7 doesn't seem like a lot but I don't see Coffey's strength as scoring. But I also didn't see him much as a senior when he averaged 20. I'd be surprised if it's much higher than 10 and less surprised if it's 7 or 8. Pretty hard to know...if he's the featured guy he could average 15 to 20. If he's a distributor which is where he is being currently praised then 7 or 8 seems likely. Impossible to know how teams use guys. Not knowing who the other freshmen are besides the two Michigan State guys is Coffey likely to be the third best scorer among incoming freshmen? I hope so!! (I guess there are not really a lot of Big Ten candidates listed in the top 35 or so.)
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I could see Coffey at around eight so if he's pushing 10 that's great. If Murphy and Mason can both get into the 12-14 range and if Springs can average double figures, I think with our depth we will be in pretty good shape. Lynch should get to that 8-10 range with put back opportunities. The key will be can Dupree take that next step as a sixth man and can someone out of Hurt, Curry and JR step up. Can Konate give us 10 decent minutes a game?
 

XMan said:
Total guess.
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Pitino gushes about Curry...any chance he scores 8-10 points a game? He is strong, he evidently has the best post game of all the bigs per Pitino. He rebounds, so putbacks seem likely. Because he is strong lob dunks are in play. If he can make free throws he could score 7,8 ppg...solely based on Richard's scouting report....haven't seen him play.
 

60's Guy said:
9.7 doesn't seem like a lot but I don't see Coffey's strength as scoring. But I also didn't see him much as a senior when he averaged 20. I'd be surprised if it's much higher than 10 and less surprised if it's 7 or 8. Pretty hard to know...if he's the featured guy he could average 15 to 20. If he's a distributor which is where he is being currently praised then 7 or 8 seems likely. Impossible to know how teams use guys. Not knowing who the other freshmen are besides the two Michigan State guys is Coffey likely to be the third best scorer among incoming freshmen? I hope so!! (I guess there are not really a lot of Big Ten candidates listed in the top 35 or so.)

In Miles Bridges highlight tape I'm pretty confident he finds ways to score.
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IMO, his position is not one of depth. We need Coffee to play roughly 30 minutes a game by my estimiations given the injury to Fitz. He's going to get the bulk of the minutes at the 3 slot and some supporting minutes at the 2 and 1.
 

I love Amir's talent, but if anything this SI prediction is optimistic. I looked back at the last 8 guys ranked the same as Amir in the Rivals rankings. Here are their freshman year stats:

2015 Trevor Manuel, Oregon: 9GP. 7.1 mpg. 1.1 ppg. Transferred to Loyola Marymount in January.
2014 Jakeenan Gant, Missouri: 26 GP. 14.1 mpg. 4.1 ppg. 2.2 rpg. Announced he was transferring in April.
2013 Deonte Burton, Marquette: 32 GP. 12.6 mpg. 6.9 ppg. 2.2 rpg. Transferred to Iowa State after sophomore season.
2012 Robert Upshaw, Fresno State: 22 GP. 16.4 mpg. 4.1 ppg. 3.8 rpg. Transferred to Washington after freshman season.
2011 Tyrone Johnson, Villanova: 32 GP. 17.7 mpg. 3.3 ppg. 1.0 rpg. Transferred to South Carolina during sophomore season.
2010 Jamail Jones, Marquette: 19 GP. 5.9 mpg. 1.4 ppg. 1.1 rpg. Transferred to FGCU after sophomore season.
2009 Ari Stewart, Wake Forest: 31 GP. 17.1 mpg. 7.3 ppg. 3.3 rpg. Tranferred to USC after sophomore season.
2008 Jeffery Taylor, Vanderbilt: 31 GP. 26.0 mpg. 12.2 ppg. 6.0 rpg.

If Amir averages around 10 ppg that would be pretty good compared to most of these guys.
 



bizzle22 said:
I love Amir's talent, but if anything this SI prediction is optimistic. I looked back at the last 8 guys ranked the same as Amir in the Rivals rankings. Here are their freshman year stats:

2015 Trevor Manuel, Oregon: 9GP. 7.1 mpg. 1.1 ppg. Transferred to Loyola Marymount in January.
2014 Jakeenan Gant, Missouri: 26 GP. 14.1 mpg. 4.1 ppg. 2.2 rpg. Announced he was transferring in April.
2013 Deonte Burton, Marquette: 32 GP. 12.6 mpg. 6.9 ppg. 2.2 rpg. Transferred to Iowa State after sophomore season.
2012 Robert Upshaw, Fresno State: 22 GP. 16.4 mpg. 4.1 ppg. 3.8 rpg. Transferred to Washington after freshman season.
2011 Tyrone Johnson, Villanova: 32 GP. 17.7 mpg. 3.3 ppg. 1.0 rpg. Transferred to South Carolina during sophomore season.
2010 Jamail Jones, Marquette: 19 GP. 5.9 mpg. 1.4 ppg. 1.1 rpg. Transferred to FGCU after sophomore season.
2009 Ari Stewart, Wake Forest: 31 GP. 17.1 mpg. 7.3 ppg. 3.3 rpg. Tranferred to USC after sophomore season.
2008 Jeffery Taylor, Vanderbilt: 31 GP. 26.0 mpg. 12.2 ppg. 6.0 rpg.

If Amir averages around 10 ppg that would be pretty good compared to most of these guys.
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Only one of those guys played greater than 20mpg. Coffey could play as much as 30mpg now that Fitzgerald is out.
 

stats

Last year, only Mason, King, and Murphy played more than 25 min per game and that was on a really shallow team.

18 min for Coffey at the 3. 6 min as backup pg. I see Springs playing the 3 with a backcourt of Mason and Dupree at times. I also think either Gilbert or Hurt could get 10 minutes at that spot. Remember freshmen, even talented ones, have issues with foul trouble.

I could see Curry with 6pts, 5 reb being the main backup at the 4 and sometimes 5. Lynch maybe with 7pts, 6 reb, 2 blks in 20 minutes at the 5.

I am glad some players are still growing! Dupree, Hurt, and Gaston all gained an inch!

DeathClutch said:
Only one of those guys played greater than 20mpg. Coffey could play as much as 30mpg now that Fitzgerald is out.
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Coffee can be a tremendous zone killer. Not by shooting threes. I'd put him at the free throw line and pass in to him. He is a great passer who can throw it over the D, bounce pass to a cutter or drive the middle to score. I'd be licking my chops if I was Murphy. He'll likely double the number of dunks he had last year.
 

DeathClutch said:
Only one of those guys played greater than 20mpg. Coffey could play as much as 30mpg now that Fitzgerald is out.
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I don't think he will get 30 mpg. Maybe around 25. And I'd also point out that Amir isn't really a scorer. Never averaged more than 20 points per game in HS. His talent is largely based on his all-around game. He'll fill up the stat sheet, but wouldn't be surprised at all if he averages less than ten ppg as a freshman even if he's playing 25-30 min a night.
 



bizzle22 said:
I don't think he will get 30 mpg. Maybe around 25. And I'd also point out that Amir isn't really a scorer. Never averaged more than 20 points per game in HS. His talent is largely based on his all-around game. He'll fill up the stat sheet, but wouldn't be surprised at all if he averages less than ten ppg as a freshman even if he's playing 25-30 min a night.
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I am aware that he isn't a big time scorer. I didn't say anything about his scoring total. I was simply pointing out the players bizzle posted didn't have the role Coffey will likely have. He is going to get all the minutes he can handle at the 3. We don't need Coffey to score in double digits. We need him to play good D, rebound his position, and use his passing skills to open up the offense.
 

bizzle22 said:
I don't think he will get 30 mpg. Maybe around 25. And I'd also point out that Amir isn't really a scorer. Never averaged more than 20 points per game in HS. His talent is largely based on his all-around game. He'll fill up the stat sheet, but wouldn't be surprised at all if he averages less than ten ppg as a freshman even if he's playing 25-30 min a night.
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Referencing Coffey's HS stats don't do him justice. Stack that Hopkins team up against last year's Gophers and it'd be a competitive game for a while.

He was surrounded by players who were far superior compared to their competition than the guys he'll have around him now.

So he might not be a shot-hunter but I think it's fair to expect him to produce points especially if he is playing 24-30 MPG.

From a pure "shot-creating" standpoint, Mason and Springs are the only guys that I'd bet are better right now. Murphy will score more because he's a beast on the boards and will get to the FT line a bunch, but Coffey will have the ball in his hands a lot and while this Gopher team has better depth, they don't have a lot of guys who I'd consider to be potent scorers.

So I'd say 10-12 points per game is a reasonable hope.

Rough point per game projection:
Mason - 14.5
Springs - 10.5
Coffey - 10
Murphy - 13
Lynch - 6.5

Dupree - 7
Curry - 4.5
Gilbert - 3
Hurt - 2
Konate - 2

That gives you about 73 points per game. That seems realisticish
 

DeathClutch said:
I am aware that he isn't a big time scorer. I didn't say anything about his scoring total. I was simply pointing out the players bizzle posted didn't have the role Coffey will likely have. He is going to get all the minutes he can handle at the 3. We don't need Coffey to score in double digits. We need him to play good D, rebound his position, and use his passing skills to open up the offense.
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I guess call me crazy for referencing points per game on a thread about points per game...
 

bizzle22 said:
I guess call me crazy for referencing points per game on a thread about points per game...
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Umm I think you are misunderstanding what I am saying. My main point is that the players you referenced didn't have a huge role on their teams except for Taylor. Coffey is going to have every opportunity to play major minutes.
 

DeathClutch said:
Umm I think you are misunderstanding what I am saying. My main point is that the players you referenced didn't have a huge role on their teams except for Taylor. Coffey is going to have every opportunity to play major minutes.
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Which is probably why SI baked that into their projection. They have him at 28.8 minutes per game. My whole point of posting that was to show that Amir is already projected to do better than most other players ranked the same as him in the past, and to remind other fans that he is doing pretty well even if he doesn't take the league by storm and average 16 per game as a freshman as some seem to expect. 9-10 ppg as a freshman is really good. That was my point.
 

bizzle22 said:
Which is probably why SI baked that into their projection. They have him at 28.8 minutes per game. My whole point of posting that was to show that Amir is already projected to do better than most other players ranked the same as him in the past, and to remind other fans that he is doing pretty well even if he doesn't take the league by storm and average 16 per game as a freshman as some seem to expect. 9-10 ppg as a freshman is really good. That was my point.
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After his 30 in the SJ game, does somebody need to get back to SI?
 



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