Saturday At-Large Update (4 bids available)

[SelectionSunday]

After Friday's action, unfortunately we've got all kinds of bid-stealers still in the mix for Saturday and/or Sunday. The Gophers are still OK, but no question they've moved closer to the bubble cut line. By my estimation the Gophers still are anywhere from 4 to 6 teams away from being impacted by the potential bid-stealers. I suppose if most of the remaining conference tournaments go the wrong way, we might have to sweat it out a little bit on Sunday.

Still have six Big 10 teams locked in, all except Wisconsin & Penn State. Of the Big 10's 4 bubble teams, I have them in this order from "best chance to get selected" to "least chance to get selected". ... Michigan, Gophers, Wisconsin & Penn State. Penn State is about as close to the cut line as a team can be; the Nitts really could go either way.

After blowing another late-game lead (this one to OSU), the Badgers now are officially a bubble team. At minimum they'll be sitting uncomfortably on Selection Sunday. I can't envision any scenario where the Badgers get selected and the Gophers are left out. I can see both getting in or both getting left out, but not a scenario where the Badgers go to the NCAA and the Gophers go to the NIT.

As of Saturday morning, I now have 9 teams duking it out for the 4 remaining at-large bids. Among those 9 bubble teams, three (Auburn, San Diego State & USC) are still in play for their conference's automatic bid.

Punched Ducat (15)
19. Siena (26-7)
26. Gonzaga (25-5)
43. Western Kentucky (23-8)
50. VCU (24-9)
54. Cleveland State (22-10)
60. Northern Iowa (22-10)
73. American (24-7)
87. North Dakota State (24-6)
109. Robert Morris (24-10)
113. Portland State (20-9)
115. Cornell (19-9)
117. East Tennessee State (21-10)
131. Radford (18-11)
142. Morehead State (17-15)
178. Chattanooga (16-16)

Highest Remaining Conference Tournament Seed (16)
3. North Carolina (27-3)
4. Michigan State (26-5)
7. Louisville (27-5)
8. Memphis (30-3)
10. Mizzou (26-6)
12. Utah (22-8)
24. Arizona State (24-8)
25. Utah State (28-4)
34. LSU (26-6)
35. Temple (21-11)
79. Stephen F. Austin (19-7)
88. Buffalo (21-10)
89. Binghamton (21-8)
129. Morgan State (21-11)
137. Cal State Northridge (15-13)
188. Alabama State (19-9)

Locks (30)
1. Pitt (27-4) -- season complete
2. Duke (26-6)
5. Oklahoma (27-5) -- season complete
6. UConn (27-4) -- season complete
9. Kansas (25-7) -- season complete
11. Syracuse (25-8)
13. Villanova (26-7) -- season complete
14. Washington (24-8) -- complete
15. Wake Forest (24-6) -- season complete
16. Xavier (25-7) -- season complete
17. Florida State (24-8)
18. Illinois (24-8)
20. Oklahoma State (22-11) -- season complete
21. West Virginia (23-11) -- season complete
22. Tennessee (20-11)
23. Butler (25-5) -- season complete
27. Dayton (26-7) -- season complete
28. BYU (24-7) -- season complete
29. Clemson (23-8) -- season complete
30. Purdue (23-9)
32. UCLA (25-8) -- season complete
33. Marquette (24-9) -- season complete
36. Ohio State (21-9)
37. Texas A&M (22-9) -- season complete
38. Texas (22-11) -- season complete
39. Cal (22-10) -- season complete
40. GOPHERS (21-10) -- season complete
42. Michigan (19-13) -- season complete
51. Maryland (20-12)
61. Boston College (22-11) -- season complete

On the Bubble (9) -- as of today only 4 of these would make it
31. San Diego State (21-8): vs. Utah, Mountain West title game (today)
41. Creighton (26-7) -- season complete
44. Wisconsin (18-12) -- season complete
45. USC (20-12): vs. Arizona State, Pac 10 title game (today)
47. St. Mary's (24-6) -- season complete
58. Auburn (21-10): vs. Tennessee, SEC semifinals (today)
63. Arizona (19-13) -- season complete
65. UNLV (21-10) -- season complete
68. Penn State (22-11) -- season complete

The following DEFINITELY will steal an at-large bid if they win their conference tournament because it's the only way they're getting in:
1. Baylor (Big 12)
2. Mississippi State (SEC)
3. Tulsa (Conference USA)

The following PERHAPS would steal a bid if they win their conference tournament, meaning (A) the team they defeat becomes a potential at-large or (B) they themselves move from "on the bubble" to an automatic qualifier:
1. Auburn (SEC) -- move from on the bubble to automatic
2. Duquesne (A-10) -- moves Temple to the bubble
3. Nevada (WAC) -- moves Utah State to the bubble
4. San Diego State (Mountain West) -- move from on the bubble to automatic
5. USC (Pac 10) -- move from on the bubble to automatic

 

[Blizzard]

Bracketology 101 has their new update in this morning.

http://bracketology101.blogspot.com/

 

[Anderson8284]

Tulsa is way down early

Hopefully Memphis continues to put the hurt to them.....

 

[Rouser]

Lunardi has Penn St. out this morning.

 

[bga1]

Thanks SS and Blizzard. Good to see Bracketology has us "insulated" by eight teams. The way I see it then we have 8 games today that could hurt or help us:

We want:

Tenn over Auburn
Temple over Duquesne
Utah State over Nevada
Utah over SDSU
ASU over USC
Missouri over Baylor
LSU over Miss St
Memphis over Tulsa


Is it right to say any number more than 4 of those that goes the wrong way is cause to start sweating some??

 

[Anderson8284]

Memphis up at half-time

Score is 28-20.

Mississippi State game starts in 15 minutes...

 

[Anderson8284]

Memphis wins

going away -> TULSA out.....

 

[cemba99]

Temple - Duquesne game

Although I agree with almost all of the excellent analysis on this thread, the one I am keeping a close eye on is the Temple - Duquesne game. If Duquesne should win, is it really conceivable that the A-10 would send four teams (Temple, Duquesne, Xavier and Dayton)?

 

[howeda7]

Although I agree with almost all of the excellent analysis on this thread, the one I am keeping a close eye on is the Temple - Duquesne game. If Duquesne should win, is it really conceivable that the A-10 would send four teams (Temple, Duquesne, Xavier and Dayton)?

Temple would not be a lock then, but they would have a strong case. Root for Temple to win the game and keep the A10 at 3 teams for sure.

 

[bigmwc]

Mississippi State is still alive, knocking out LSU 67-57. Really need Tennessee to win now.

 

[hyaluronic]

You know... we should start brackets with the assumption that every conference tournament goes the wrong way, then slowly expand the bubble so that we're not disappointed. Of course, that does not make sense for a commercial operation, as fans want to see brackets that include their team.

 

[cemba99]

OSU Takes it to MSU!

While it does not affect us much, the big OSU win over Sparty may have helped Wisconsin some, if Becky is still on the bubble. Becky certainly played the Buckeyes much tougher than that. MSU can kick that #1 seed talk right out the door, a #2 seems likely

For what its worth, Clark Kellogg (color analyst for the game) said that both MN and PSU are squarely on the bubble, the other 6 Big 10 teams are in. Clark would not say which of MN or PSU had a better chance to get in.