Gopher07
Captain of Awesome
- Joined
- Nov 20, 2008
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Another week, and more data points. Even though we generally stunk it up in our win over Rutgers on Saturday, it didn't shift a whole lot in terms of the predictions - as expected at this point. We kinda know who we are, and we kinda know who our opponents are.
Big, big game coming up this weekend at Illinois. It's a toss up, though if it were played at TCF we'd be favored by about the same as we were against Oregon State. Purdue still looks like a likely win (less than the predicted Rutgers spread but still comfortable from a numbers standpoint), so a win this weekend would put us in a favorable position to get to 7-2 before the home stretch.
Also, if we continue to take care of business, I expect that Nebraska line to come down a bit as they take on Wisconsin and Ohio State in their next two and could recalibrate (given they haven't played a top-40 team yet; we're 0-2 versus the top 40 so far this year).
A reminder on how I arrive here, I take Jeff Sagarin's predictor ratings (found here), and calculate what the computer says the spread should be, for now through the end of the season. Negative numbers favor the Gophers, positive favor the opponent.
Previous weeks are below:
Preseason
Week 2
Week 3
Week 5
Week 6
Week 7
Week 8
vs Oregon State W (predicted -8; actual -7)
vs Indiana State W (predicted -17.5; actual -30)
vs Colorado State W (predicted -17.5; actual -7)
@ Penn State L (predicted +4; actual +3)
vs Iowa L (predicted +8; actual +7)
@ Maryland W (predicted: +3.5; actual -21)
vs Rutgers W (predicted: -20.5; actual -2)
@ Illinois -3
vs Purdue -15.5
@ Nebraska +11
vs Northwestern +0.5
@ Wisconsin +16.5
Final record: 7-5 (4-5)
Likely in the W column (>7-point advantage to Minnesota): vs Purdue
Toss ups (no team with a greater than 7-point advantage): @ Illinois, vs Northwestern
Likely in the L column (>7-point advantage to opponent): @ Nebraska, @ Wisconsin
Big, big game coming up this weekend at Illinois. It's a toss up, though if it were played at TCF we'd be favored by about the same as we were against Oregon State. Purdue still looks like a likely win (less than the predicted Rutgers spread but still comfortable from a numbers standpoint), so a win this weekend would put us in a favorable position to get to 7-2 before the home stretch.
Also, if we continue to take care of business, I expect that Nebraska line to come down a bit as they take on Wisconsin and Ohio State in their next two and could recalibrate (given they haven't played a top-40 team yet; we're 0-2 versus the top 40 so far this year).
A reminder on how I arrive here, I take Jeff Sagarin's predictor ratings (found here), and calculate what the computer says the spread should be, for now through the end of the season. Negative numbers favor the Gophers, positive favor the opponent.
Previous weeks are below:
Preseason
Week 2
Week 3
Week 5
Week 6
Week 7
Week 8
vs Oregon State W (predicted -8; actual -7)
vs Indiana State W (predicted -17.5; actual -30)
vs Colorado State W (predicted -17.5; actual -7)
@ Penn State L (predicted +4; actual +3)
vs Iowa L (predicted +8; actual +7)
@ Maryland W (predicted: +3.5; actual -21)
vs Rutgers W (predicted: -20.5; actual -2)
@ Illinois -3
vs Purdue -15.5
@ Nebraska +11
vs Northwestern +0.5
@ Wisconsin +16.5
Final record: 7-5 (4-5)
Likely in the W column (>7-point advantage to Minnesota): vs Purdue
Toss ups (no team with a greater than 7-point advantage): @ Illinois, vs Northwestern
Likely in the L column (>7-point advantage to opponent): @ Nebraska, @ Wisconsin