Sagarin Predictions: Week 8

[Gopher07]

For the first time this year, we took a toss-up game - making us 1-1 in that department so far (L vs Penn State, W vs Maryland). Not only did we win it, but we did it in style and we have some shifts in our favor as a result the rest of the way in the predictions.

Rutgers and Purdue look to be about as easy as we could hope for from conference opponents, which is good for our bowl-eligibility hopes.

Sandwiched in between is a sneaky game at Illinois. Although the Illini haven't been world-beaters, they're in toss-up territory for now. And then, of course, the Northwestern late-season showdown at TCF. Those two games are shaping up to be the ones that make or break the final record for the season. Win both and 8 wins is the most likely outcome, given the other four games just look out of reach for the time being (either for us or for our opponent).

Excited to see the team take the field again on Saturday and take down the Scarlet Knights.

A reminder on how I arrive here, I take Jeff Sagarin's predictor ratings (found here), and calculate what the computer says the spread should be, for now through the end of the season. Negative numbers favor the Gophers, positive favor the opponent.

Previous weeks are below:
Preseason
Week 2
Week 3
Week 5
Week 6
Week 7

vs Oregon State W (predicted -8; actual -7)
vs Indiana State W (predicted -17.5; actual -30)
vs Colorado State W (predicted -17.5; actual -7)
@ Penn State L (predicted +4; actual +3)
vs Iowa L (predicted +8; actual +7)
@ Maryland W (predicted: +3.5; actual -21)
vs Rutgers -20.5
@ Illinois -4.5
vs Purdue -17.5
@ Nebraska +11.5
vs Northwestern -0.5
@ Wisconsin +15.5

Final record: 8-4 (5-4)

Likely in the W column (>7-point advantage to Minnesota): vs Rutgers, vs Purdue
Toss ups (no team with a greater than 7-point advantage): @ Illinois, vs Northwestern
Likely in the L column (>7-point advantage to opponent): @ Nebraska, @ Wisconsin

 

[A_Slab_of_Bacon]

That Illinois road game worries me.

 

[MNVCGUY]

That Illinois road game worries me.

I'm actually kind of glad that game is on the road because it will be easier for the coaches to get the full attention of the players (fewer potential distractions). Agree that of the next 3 that is the one that has the most potential to be problematic, not that we are really in a position where we can take anyone for granted (even though Rutgers and Purdue look about as bad as a power 5 team can look right now).

 

[homermn]

That Nebraska prediction seems overly generous, they haven't been incredibly dominant in any game this year. They've done what they had to do, but with games @Wisconsin and then @Ohio State prior to playing Minnesota, it may be an opportune time.

As always, thank you for putting this together each week.

 

[WorkingMyTailOff]

That Nebraska prediction seems overly generous, they haven't been incredibly dominant in any game this year. They've done what they had to do, but with games @Wisconsin and then @Ohio State prior to playing Minnesota, it may be an opportune time.

As always, thank you for putting this together each week.

Yeah I think the Gophers defense will match up well against Nebraska with the strong secondary and fast linebackers. Hopefully by then the offense is hitting a little bit better.

 

[A_Slab_of_Bacon]

That Nebraska prediction seems overly generous, they haven't been incredibly dominant in any game this year. They've done what they had to do, but with games @Wisconsin and then @Ohio State prior to playing Minnesota, it may be an opportune time.

As always, thank you for putting this together each week.

I would be nice to catch Nebraska off guard, but even if they look a bit slow at times their opponents haven't looked nearly as derpy as us, or out opponents.

 

[nsmike]

Nebraska has to play Wisconsin and Ohio State, before us, there's just a chance they might be a bit beat up by the time we play them. Take them one at time, get to 7-2, then hope Mitch has the one game a year where he looks like a future NFL quarterback.

 

[HoustonTXGopher]

I still see 5 more wins on the schedule, a chance to play Wisconsin and determine our own fate in winning the BIG10 west.

 

[cjbfbp]

That Nebraska prediction seems overly generous, they haven't been incredibly dominant in any game this year. They've done what they had to do, but with games @Wisconsin and then @Ohio State prior to playing Minnesota, it may be an opportune time.

As always, thank you for putting this together each week.

If Minnesota wins the next three, I don't think we'll see a line that large. Maybe they'll be a 7 point favorite.