Sagarin Predictions: Week 8

[Gopher07]

Following Purdue's close loss on the road and Minnesota's blowout loss to Wisconsin, the prediction has shifted in favor of Purdue for this weekend's game. On the plus side, however, the gap is widening between us and Illinois. By far the Gophers' two most winnable games are those two.

Finally, how accurate have the week-of predictions been? Not close on gaps in most cases, but certainly has nailed directionality. I have the predicted week-of lines in brackets in this week's installment below.

Week seven can be found here: http://www.forums.gopherhole.com/boards/showthread.php?40838-Sagarin-Predictions-Week-7

Sagarin's ratings can be found here: http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/fbt12.htm

I take [home team rating + 2.59 (home field advantage)] - [away team rating] to show spreads.

Minnesota, #73, 67.32 PREDICTOR rating. Results/predicted lines in parentheses.

@ UNLV (W, 30-27)
vs UNH (W, 44-7) [predicted: Minnesota -4.5)
vs Western Michigan (W, 28-23) [predicted: Minnesota -10.5]
vs Syracuse (W, 17-10) [predicted: Minnesota -4.5]
@ Iowa (L, 31-13) [predicted: Iowa -1.5]
vs Northwestern (L, 21-13) [predicted: Northwestern -2]
@ Wisconsin (L, 38-13) [predicted: Wisconsin -14]
vs Purdue (+3)
vs Michigan (+14.5)
@ Illinois (-5)
@ Nebraska (+14)
vs Michigan State (+6.5)

Final record: 5-7 (1-7).

Good chance to win (>6 spread favoring Gophers):
Close wins (0-6 spread favoring Gophers): @Illinois
Toss up (Pick 'em):
Close losses (0-6 spread favoring opponent): Purdue
Good chance to lose (>6 spread favoring opponent): Michigan, @Nebraska, Michigan State