Gopher07
Captain of Awesome
- Joined
- Nov 20, 2008
- Messages
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Small shifts can have big consequences in the predictions. Even though things went pretty much as expected last weekend (at least, according to the numbers) our overall record has shifted from 8-4 to 5-7 by virtue of Maryland's, Illinois' and Northwestern's improvement and our decline. All three games remain in toss-up territory for the time being, but all of them are leaning toward the opponent as of now.
As of right now, to get to 4 conference wins, the Gophers are going to have to take the majority of the remaining toss up games, and win both the "should win" contests at home against Purdue and Rutgers. It's not impossible - but the task is tall. That said, a win this weekend (outside of obvious HATE reasons) would go a long, long way toward making this season successful and get things back on track before the rough stretch in November.
A reminder on how I arrive here, I take Jeff Sagarin's predictor ratings (found here), and calculate what the computer says the spread should be, for now through the end of the season. Negative numbers favor the Gophers, positive favor the opponent.
Previous weeks are below:
Preseason
Week 2
Week 3
Week 5
vs Oregon State W (predicted -8; actual -7)
vs Indiana State W (predicted -17.5; actual -30)
vs Colorado State W (predicted -17.5; actual -7)
@ Penn State L (predicted +4; actual +3)
vs Iowa +8
@ Maryland +7
vs Rutgers -11
@ Illinois +0.5
vs Purdue -15.5
@ Nebraska +16
vs Northwestern +2
@ Wisconsin +19
Final record: 5-7 (2-7)
Likely in the W column (>7-point advantage to Minnesota): vs Rutgers, vs Purdue
Toss ups (no team with a greater than 7-point advantage): @ Maryland, @ Illinois, vs Northwestern
Likely in the L column (>7-point advantage to opponent): vs Iowa, @ Nebraska, @ Wisconsin
As of right now, to get to 4 conference wins, the Gophers are going to have to take the majority of the remaining toss up games, and win both the "should win" contests at home against Purdue and Rutgers. It's not impossible - but the task is tall. That said, a win this weekend (outside of obvious HATE reasons) would go a long, long way toward making this season successful and get things back on track before the rough stretch in November.
A reminder on how I arrive here, I take Jeff Sagarin's predictor ratings (found here), and calculate what the computer says the spread should be, for now through the end of the season. Negative numbers favor the Gophers, positive favor the opponent.
Previous weeks are below:
Preseason
Week 2
Week 3
Week 5
vs Oregon State W (predicted -8; actual -7)
vs Indiana State W (predicted -17.5; actual -30)
vs Colorado State W (predicted -17.5; actual -7)
@ Penn State L (predicted +4; actual +3)
vs Iowa +8
@ Maryland +7
vs Rutgers -11
@ Illinois +0.5
vs Purdue -15.5
@ Nebraska +16
vs Northwestern +2
@ Wisconsin +19
Final record: 5-7 (2-7)
Likely in the W column (>7-point advantage to Minnesota): vs Rutgers, vs Purdue
Toss ups (no team with a greater than 7-point advantage): @ Maryland, @ Illinois, vs Northwestern
Likely in the L column (>7-point advantage to opponent): vs Iowa, @ Nebraska, @ Wisconsin
