Gopher07
Captain of Awesome
- Joined
- Nov 20, 2008
- Messages
- 9,008
- Reaction score
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- Points
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Back after a week off! Had a bit of work stuff taking my time last week so I apologize for not having an update following our bye.
After a bit of a lackluster win over the weekend for our Gophers, things look ... pretty similar to how they've looked in the past. We've got a nice stretch of "easier" games bookended by the tough stuff. If we want to show ourselves as more than an 8-win team, it starts this weekend by proving the formula (and oddsmakers) wrong. I'm still focused on the first three conference games of the year as critical - if the Gophers go 2-1 or better, it can be a very special season in terms of win/loss record. If not ... well, it can still be special but it's going to be a lot more difficult.
This weekend starts that journey, with a real toss up of a game. At home, Gophers would be slight favorites, and using some of the other formulas tightens the line a bit (most notably Sagarin's RECENT scores would have us a 2.5pt underdog). Should be a good early-season measuring stick for our guys.
A reminder on how I arrive here, I take Jeff Sagarin's predictor ratings (found here), and calculate what the computer says the spread should be, for now through the end of the season. Negative numbers favor the Gophers, positive favor the opponent.
Previous weeks are below:
Preseason
Week 2
Week 3
vs Oregon State W (predicted -8; actual -7)
vs Indiana State W (predicted -17.5; actual -30)
vs Colorado State W (predicted -17.5; actual -7)
@ Penn State +4
vs Iowa +9
@ Maryland -0.5
vs Rutgers -11.5
@ Illinois -3.5
vs Purdue -10.5
@ Nebraska +14.5
vs Northwestern -1.5
@ Wisconsin +16
Final record: 8-4 (5-4)
Likely in the W column (>7-point advantage to Minnesota): vs Rutgers, vs Purdue
Toss ups (no team with a greater than 7-point advantage): @ Penn State, @ Maryland, @ Illinois, vs Northwestern
Likely in the L column (>7-point advantage to opponent): vs Iowa, @ Nebraska, @ Wisconsin
After a bit of a lackluster win over the weekend for our Gophers, things look ... pretty similar to how they've looked in the past. We've got a nice stretch of "easier" games bookended by the tough stuff. If we want to show ourselves as more than an 8-win team, it starts this weekend by proving the formula (and oddsmakers) wrong. I'm still focused on the first three conference games of the year as critical - if the Gophers go 2-1 or better, it can be a very special season in terms of win/loss record. If not ... well, it can still be special but it's going to be a lot more difficult.
This weekend starts that journey, with a real toss up of a game. At home, Gophers would be slight favorites, and using some of the other formulas tightens the line a bit (most notably Sagarin's RECENT scores would have us a 2.5pt underdog). Should be a good early-season measuring stick for our guys.
A reminder on how I arrive here, I take Jeff Sagarin's predictor ratings (found here), and calculate what the computer says the spread should be, for now through the end of the season. Negative numbers favor the Gophers, positive favor the opponent.
Previous weeks are below:
Preseason
Week 2
Week 3
vs Oregon State W (predicted -8; actual -7)
vs Indiana State W (predicted -17.5; actual -30)
vs Colorado State W (predicted -17.5; actual -7)
@ Penn State +4
vs Iowa +9
@ Maryland -0.5
vs Rutgers -11.5
@ Illinois -3.5
vs Purdue -10.5
@ Nebraska +14.5
vs Northwestern -1.5
@ Wisconsin +16
Final record: 8-4 (5-4)
Likely in the W column (>7-point advantage to Minnesota): vs Rutgers, vs Purdue
Toss ups (no team with a greater than 7-point advantage): @ Penn State, @ Maryland, @ Illinois, vs Northwestern
Likely in the L column (>7-point advantage to opponent): vs Iowa, @ Nebraska, @ Wisconsin