Sagarin Predictions: Week 3

[Gopher07]

We beat the formula's prediction last week, but, with the exception of Northwestern and Illinois, we didn't see much movement in our favor with respect to the predicted lines following week 2.

The three-game stretch to open conference play is looking to be the make-or-break in terms of momentum. Two of the three games should be closely contested based on the numbers, and the other is a rivalry game at home. If we come out of that stretch at 5-1, things will likely look pretty darn good to get to 8-1 and a ranking. But we could just as easily come out of it at 3-3, with very little momentum and needing a sweep of our remaining home games to lock up a bowl bid. The truth might be in the middle, but we'll see.

A reminder on how I arrive here, I take Jeff Sagarin's predictor ratings (found here), and calculate what the computer says the spread should be, for now through the end of the season. Negative numbers favor the Gophers, positive favor the opponent.

Previous weeks are below:
Preseason
Week 2

Still a lot of movement to come as teams get better connected. For now, here's where we stand:

vs Oregon State W (predicted -8; actual -7)
vs Indiana State W (predicted -17.5; actual -30)
vs Colorado State -17.5
@ Penn State +6
vs Iowa +11.5
@ Maryland -0.5
vs Rutgers -13.5
@ Illinois -1
vs Purdue -12
@ Nebraska +14.5
vs Northwestern -4
@ Wisconsin +16

Final record: 8-4 (5-4)

Likely in the W column (>7-point advantage to Minnesota): vs Colorado State, vs Rutgers, vs Purdue
Toss ups (no team with a greater than 7-point advantage): @ Penn State, @ Maryland, @ Illinois, vs Northwestern
Likely in the L column (>7-point advantage to opponent): vs Iowa, @ Nebraska, @ Wisconsin

 

[upnorthkid]

Wish NW was our first big ten game. They're really floundering right now. It'd be nice to take advantage

 

[Gopher07]

Wish NW was our first big ten game. They're really floundering right now. It'd be nice to take advantage

It would be.

I fear we'll get a wounded animal in Penn State instead - almost certainly 3-2, having come back to State College from a whooping at the hands of Harbaugh in Ann Arbor. They'll probably be playing for their season - if they drop to 0-2 in the B1G, still having to play OSU, Iowa, MSU, they can probably kiss a winning conference record goodbye, and maybe their coach as well. The fans will demand a >.500 conference record in his third year.

 

[A_Slab_of_Bacon]

It would be.

I fear we'll get a wounded animal in Penn State instead - almost certainly 3-2, having come back to State College from a whooping at the hands of Harbaugh in Ann Arbor. They'll probably be playing for their season - if they drop to 0-2 in the B1G, still having to play OSU, Iowa, MSU, they can probably kiss a winning conference record goodbye, and maybe their coach as well. The fans will demand a >.500 conference record in his third year.

And it is in Happy Valley, floundering or not it will be a challenge.

Here is hoping they continue to be terrible vs the run....

 

[nsmike]

Every game McSorley plays, makes the PSU offense that much more dangerous, I'm glad we play them early.

 

[GoldyMoose]

D line has been awful: Gophers run for 250.
O line has been pedestrian; Barkley held to 90 rushing, 45 receiving.
Gophs by 10!

 

[Some guy]

They don't need to get to 8-1 to get a ranking.

 

[Gopher07]

They don't need to get to 8-1 to get a ranking.

7-1 would probably do it too, maybe 6-1 if one of those wins is over Iowa (and the loss isn't to CSU or Rutgers or something awful). 7-2 would be borderline, last year Northwestern was 7-2 and ranked at around 23rd, but they had a win over then-top 10 Stanford to their resume. If we're 7-2 and the losses are to PSU and Iowa I'm not convinced we're ranked.

 

[Some guy]

7-1 would probably do it too, maybe 6-1 if one of those wins is over Iowa (and the loss isn't to CSU or Rutgers or something awful). 7-2 would be borderline, last year Northwestern was 7-2 and ranked at around 23rd, but they had a win over then-top 10 Stanford to their resume. If we're 7-2 and the losses are to PSU and Iowa I'm not convinced we're ranked.

There is probably greater than a 0% chance they are ranked after week 4 when there are only about 20 unbeatens left in the country. Not having losses is pretty critical to midseason rankings. If they beat Penn State no question in my mind they will be ranked. By week 5 there are usually only about 15 unbeatens left.

 

[Gopher07]

We're probably borderline at 4-0, although leaning toward ranked because it's week 5.

Last year, 4-0 Iowa was unranked, although that was week 4 (not week 5). They broke into the poll at 5-0 after beating #19 Wisconsin, at 22. The year before, Georgia Tech broke into the poll at 5-0 in week 5 (again, 22) but was outside looking in at 4-0.