Sagarin Predictions: Week 3

[Gopher07]

Good news - we won a "toss-up" game on Saturday. The numbers, last week, predicted a win in the range of 5 to 7 points. The first of our uncertain games and we came away with a win.

Bad news - a lot of our opponents did more to look solid than we did, and that means the numbers don't like us relative to them as much. Northwestern is still a toss-up, but barely, Iowa is improved and now looks further out of reach, while Illinois is a tricky case where the rankings have a really wide variability.

Still very early - we'll have a chance to look better in the next couple of games - but as of now the models predict a backslide for the team this year.

The other thing that is starting to come into focus is the importance of that Northwestern game. From a purely numbers standpoint, it's the only game where we'd be flat-out expected to lose between now and November. Three of the games look pretty good in our favor (KSU, Ohio, Purdue) while the other two look like home toss-up games, down to the wire (Nebraska, Michigan).

I'm using three lines this year - the GOLDEN_MEAN spreads, the PREDICTOR spreads, and the RECENT spreads, found here.

Last week's post can be found here.

vs TCU L
@ Colorado State W
vs Kent State (-26, -28.5, -25.5)
vs Ohio (-13, -14, -15.5)
@ Northwestern (+6, +6.5, +3.5)
@ Purdue (-9.5, -8, -9.5)
vs Nebraska (-0.5, +0.5, +1)
vs Michigan (-1.5, +0.5, -1)
@ Ohio State (+20, +20, +19.5)
@ Iowa (+7.5, +6.5, +6)
vs Illinois (-3.5, +3, -6.5)
vs Wisconsin (+6.5, +8.5, +7.5)

Predicted Record [based on an average of the three models] 6-6 (3-5)

Likely wins (>6 point difference [average] in favor of Minnesota): vs Kent State, vs Ohio, @ Purdue
Likely toss-ups (within 6 points [average]): @ Northwestern, vs Nebraska, vs Michigan, vs Illinois
Likely losses (>6 point difference [average] in favor of opponent): @ Ohio State, @ Iowa, vs Wisconsin

 

[t-docious]

the most peculiar thing about this is the fact that IOWA? is 7.5 favorites???

 

[Gopher07]

the most peculiar thing about this is the fact that IOWA? is 7.5 favorites???

While I agree that seems high, they have taken care of business so far - and while they haven't been great so far, they have won on the road (@ ISU) and pulled out to a big lead against Illinois State before coasting at the end in their opener. Nothing about them screams "conference title contender" but it doesn't scream "4-8" either, at least through the games played in 2015. Guessing the Pitt game this weekend gives us a way better barometer of what to expect from them.

 

[nsmike]

I think that we'll know a lot more next week when this weeks schedule gets factored in. The cross factoring from this years results start to come through after the third week and should be fully weighted after week four. If you want the short answer, Sagarin doesn't really work, until after the fourth week.

 

[Ski U Mah 55]

I think that we'll know a lot more next week when this weeks schedule gets factored in. The cross factoring from this years results start to come through after the third week and should be fully weighted after week four. If you want the short answer, Sagarin doesn't really work, until after the fourth week.

What poll really does?

 

[cjbfbp]

Although I'm worried about the Gophers' offense (particularly the offensive line) at this point, these rating spreads don't mean too much to me at this time of the season. Northwestern started the Big Ten season last year thumping Penn State and beating Wisconsin by about a touchdown. They lost five of their next seven games on the way to a 5-7 season. I do believe that Iowa is much improved because their offense is much improved but maybe the Gophers' offense will catch up to them by that point of the season. After last year's TCU game and a win over a really weak SJSU team where our team completed one pass, I wasn't that confident that this team could win 6 games to be bowl eligible but the team easily surpassed that target.

According to those same Sagarin ratings (not all that dependable at this point), Minnesota has played the 17th toughest schedule in the nation after two games. The next toughest in the Big Ten is Mich State at #36. Iowa is at #61, Northwestern is at #96, Nebraska is at #91, and Illinois is at #175. I would say that those schedules have had something to do with how some other conference teams have "taken care of business."