Sagarin Predictions: Week 3

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Gopher07

Gopher07

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Week 2 can be found here.

Despite the B1G's troubles yesterday, things got much worse for our Gophers on the computer side of things. Seems the formula was not too kind to us, despite performing almost exactly as expected (going in, we were favored by 10 points).

I take the GOLDEN_MEAN score and add the home-field advantage to the home team to come up with predicted spreads/favorites.

@ TCU +22
vs. SJSU -7
@ Michigan +12.5
vs Northwestern PICK
vs Purdue -19
@ Illinois +5.5
vs Iowa +2
vs Ohio State +15
@ Nebraska +12
@ Wisconsin +26.5

Predicted Record 5-7 (2-6)/4-8 (1-7)

Likely wins (>6 point difference in favor of Minnesota): SJSU, Purdue
Likely toss-ups (within 6 points): vs Northwestern, @ Illinois, vs Iowa
Likely losses (>6 point difference in favor of opponent): @ TCU, @ Michigan, vs Ohio State, @ Nebraska, @ Wisconsin
 


While I respect Mr. Sagarin, it was his computer models that were the BCS era. And that is over.
 


Sagarin is no more than a man with a formula.

What percent of games does he get right on who wins? Because I bet I could match that for a season just using gut feelings to pick winners.



The fact that Illinois is seen as a more difficult game than Iowa makes me laugh.
 


Some guy said:
Sagarin is no more than a man with a formula.

What percent of games does he get right on who wins? Because I bet I could match that for a season just using gut feelings to pick winners.



The fact that Illinois is seen as a more difficult game than Iowa makes me laugh.
Click to expand...

I'll bet you couldn't.
 

I couldn't beat him if we were picking point spread. But just straight up winners I bet I could (and many could) match him to the point where the difference isn't statistically significant.



In big ten games this week I would have gone 13 of 14.
In ACC games this week I would have gone 11-1 (Ohio state)
But the loss in the acc is the same as the loss in the big ten. So I would have been 24/25 in the big ten and ACC
In the SEC I would have gone 12-0 this week.
In the PAC 12 I would have gone 9-2 this week (Stanford and Washington state). But I've already counted the Oregon win so 8-2


With those 4 conferences this week I would have been 45-3.


I would have been 7-1 in the big 12 this week (Texas).


So power 5 record is 52-4


What would have sagarin gotten as a record? Can't be much better than 52-4.
 

Even Sagarin himself says that his formula doesn't work very well until after the 4th game of the season.
 

How did his formula work out for Ohio State and Michigan?

husker70 said:
While I respect Mr. Sagarin, it was his computer models that were the BCS era. And that is over.
Click to expand...

Before we take his work as gospel, he should have to post a bond that backs up his computer theories. Then he would be more cautious.
 






How about that.

Sent from my MZ617 using Tapatalk
 



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