Sagarin Predictions: Week 3

[Gopher07]

This week's win did nothing to help us in the computer simulation and actually dropped us from our standing last week. Things are getting more into focus as last year's influence is whittled away. No change in the overall record but some shifting in the close vs. likely losses.

Week two can be found here: http://www.forums.gopherhole.com/boards/showthread.php?39921-Sagarin-Predictions-Week-2

Sagarin's ratings can be found here: http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/fbt12.htm

I take [home team rating + 3.45 (home field advantage)] - [away team rating] to show spreads.

Minnesota, #68, 70.23 PREDICTOR rating. Results/predicted lines in parentheses.

@ UNLV (W, 30-27)
vs UNH (W, 44-7)
vs Western Michigan (W, 28-23)
vs Syracuse (-4.5)
@ Iowa (+8.5)
vs Northwestern (+2)
@ Wisconsin (+12)
vs Purdue (+4)
vs Michigan (+4)
@ Illinois (+6.5)
@ Nebraska (+15.5)
vs Michigan State (+5)

Final record: 4-8 (0-8).

Good chance to win (>6 spread favoring Gophers):
Close wins (0-6 spread favoring Gophers): Syracuse
Close losses (0-6 spread favoring opponent): Northwestern, Purdue, Michigan, @Illinois, Michigan State
Good chance to lose (>6 spread favoring opponent): @Iowa, @Wisconsin, @Nebraska

 

[johnnybb]

I think they might be overrating Wisconsin and Iowa's home field advantages on those spreads. Both of them have not only looked bad, but looked bad at home.

 

[SJUgopher]

I wouldn't be surprised if we beat any of the remaining teams except Nebraska. It would be nice to finish 11-1, but don't think it will happen.

 

[Iceland12]

I wonder how accurate Sagarin ratings have been against the spread?

 

[Gopher07]

I wonder how accurate Sagarin ratings have been against the spread?

Probably not very this early in the season. The formula had us pegged as 4.5 favorites against UNH and 10.5 favorites against WMU. I expect as it moves further into the season it will get more accurate though.

 

[mcrow]

The way the B1G has been going this year the Gopehers could potentially win any of those games.

The conference is favoring the Gophers this year and it's getting to the point where a bowl game is very realistic this year.

 

[SFGopher]

I wouldn't be surprised if we beat any of the remaining teams except Nebraska. It would be nice to finish 11-1, but don't think it will happen.

I would be surprised if we beat Michigan too. Otherwise, the Gophers have a shot at beating the other B10 teams on its schedule.