Sagarin Predictions: Week 13

[Gopher07]

And so we arrive at Axe week.

The Gophers overperformed the formula on Saturday, and finish the season 3-2 in tossup games (games that were within 7 points at the time of the contest). Paired with a 5-0 record in "should wins" and 0-1 in "should lose" and we arrive at 8-3. Saturday is just the second "should lose" game we have played this year (the first being Iowa). And the spread is by far the largest we will face this year.

That said, there are signs of hope. In three games this year we've overperformed the formula by 19.5 or more (@ Maryland, @ Illinois, vs Northwestern). If we can pull the same overperform magic on Saturday, it can be close.

Also, since it's the last game of the year, let's play out how the formula says things should finish in the conference:

East
1. Penn State (8-1)
2. Ohio State (8-1)
3. Michigan (7-2)
4. Indiana (4-5)
5. Maryland (3-6)
6. Michigan State (1-8)
7. Rutgers (0-9)

West
1. Wisconsin (7-2)
2. Iowa (6-3)
3. Nebraska (6-3)
4. Minnesota (5-4)
5. Northwestern (5-4)
6. Illinois (2-7)
7. Purdue (1-8)

And in a hypothetical neutral-site B1G championship game matchup between Penn State and Wisconsin, the Badgers would be about 4.5-point favorites this week. Let's hope our Gophers can change that prognostication.

Finally, thanks everyone for reading this season. I'll be back before the bowl games to do a prediction extravaganza.

A reminder on how I arrive here, I take Jeff Sagarin's predictor ratings (found here), and calculate what the computer says the spread should be, for now through the end of the season. Negative numbers favor the Gophers, positive favor the opponent.

Previous weeks are below:
Preseason
Week 2
Week 3
Week 5
Week 6
Week 7
Week 8
Week 9
Week 10
Week 11
Week 12

vs Oregon State W (predicted -8; actual -7)
vs Indiana State W (predicted -17.5; actual -30)
vs Colorado State W (predicted -17.5; actual -7)
@ Penn State L (predicted +4; actual +3)
vs Iowa L (predicted +8; actual +7)
@ Maryland W (predicted: +3.5; actual -21)
vs Rutgers W (predicted: -20.5; actual -2)
@ Illinois W (predicted -3; actual -23)
vs Purdue W (predicted -19.5; actual -13)
@ Nebraska L (predicted +6; actual +7)
vs Northwestern W (predicted +2.5; actual -17)
@ Wisconsin +16

Final record: 8-4 (5-4)

Likely in the W column (>7-point advantage to Minnesota):
Toss ups (no team with a greater than 7-point advantage):
Likely in the L column (>7-point advantage to opponent): @ Wisconsin

 

[Gopher07]

One more update, just for fun, what would the formula say about our season now? If we took everyone's predictor rating now and compared it to ours now, what would the predicted spreads be?

vs Oregon State W (predicted -8.5; actual -7)
vs Indiana State W (predicted -31.5; actual -30)
vs Colorado State W (predicted -10.5; actual -7)
@ Penn State L (predicted +11.5; actual +3)
vs Iowa L (predicted +2; actual +7)
@ Maryland W (predicted: -7.5; actual -21)
vs Rutgers W (predicted: -25; actual -2)
@ Illinois W (predicted -11.5; actual -23)
vs Purdue W (predicted -22; actual -13)
@ Nebraska L (predicted +5.5; actual +7)
vs Northwestern W (predicted -1; actual -17)
@ Wisconsin +16

Hindsight predicted record: 8-4/5-4

Games we should feel good about in hindsight: Northwestern (overperform by 16), Maryland (overperform by 13.5), Illinois (overperform by 11.5), Penn State (overperform by 8.5).

Games we should feel not-so-good about in hindsight: Rutgers (underperform by 23), Purdue (underperform by 9)

 

[MNVCGUY]

One more update, just for fun, what would the formula say about our season now? If we took everyone's predictor rating now and compared it to ours now, what would the predicted spreads be?

vs Oregon State W (predicted -8.5; actual -7)
vs Indiana State W (predicted -31.5; actual -30)
vs Colorado State W (predicted -10.5; actual -7)
@ Penn State L (predicted +11.5; actual +3)
vs Iowa L (predicted +2; actual +7)
@ Maryland W (predicted: -7.5; actual -21)
vs Rutgers W (predicted: -25; actual -2)
@ Illinois W (predicted -11.5; actual -23)
vs Purdue W (predicted -22; actual -13)
@ Nebraska L (predicted +5.5; actual +7)
vs Northwestern W (predicted -1; actual -17)
@ Wisconsin +16

Hindsight predicted record: 8-4/5-4

Games we should feel good about in hindsight: Northwestern (overperform by 16), Maryland (overperform by 13.5), Illinois (overperform by 11.5), Penn State (overperform by 8.5).

Games we should feel not-so-good about in hindsight: Rutgers (underperform by 23), Purdue (underperform by 9)

Thanks for doing this each week, I always find it interesting. Pretty impressive how close the prediction and actual come out a lot of weeks.