Sagarin Predictions: Week 13

Gopher07

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And down the stretch we come! We outperformed on Saturday, but so did one of our last two opponents. Little change - even with the Badger blowout in Madison - but things for this coming Saturday look very similar to this past Saturday.

Week 12 can be found here.

As always, these are for entertainment purposes only.

I take the GOLDEN_MEAN score, found here, and add the home-field advantage to the home team to come up with predicted spreads/favorites. I've also noted the PREDICTOR spreads as well, in blue.

@ Nebraska +13.5 (+10)
@ Wisconsin +19 (+15.5)

Predicted Record 7-5 (4-4)

Likely losses (>6 point difference in favor of opponent): @ Nebraska, @ Wisconsin

Looking back on the season to date, our record by my admittedly loose categorization - note, I did not do predictions for the EIU game:

Likely wins (>6 point difference in favor of Gophers, week of the game): 3-1
MTSU -10
SJSU -6.5
Purdue -14.5
@ Illinois -8.5

Toss-ups (within 6 points either way): 3-0
@ Michigan +4
Northwestern -1.5
Iowa +3

Likely losses (>6 point difference in favor of opponent): 0-2
@ TCU +22
Ohio State +13.5

Our last two games fall into the last category, so we'll need to buck a trend that goes back to Northwestern last year if we want to get a W in the next couple - win a game where we are not relatively close by the Sagarin numbers. Would love to see it happen!
 

Thanks for the post and look back. Interesting stuff.
 

So this model got 5 winners correct and 4 winners incorrect?
 




So this model got 5 winners correct and 4 winners incorrect?

Hard to judge a model based on a sample size of 9 games no matter how accurate it is, a much larger sample size is needed.

From what I've read the Sagarin model is fairly well respected overall.
 

Hard to judge a model based on a sample size of 9 games no matter how accurate it is, a much larger sample size is needed.

From what I've read the Sagarin model is fairly well respected overall.
My point was that 80% of people on here could pick 5/9 winners correct without a model at all.


6/9 would be tougher though. I read northwestern line wrong
 




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