Sagarin Predictions: Week 12

[Gopher07]

Take that predictive statistics! What was, by the inputs, an even matchup turned out to be a laugher in our favor. Love it. Can we make it two in a row and win what looks to be suddenly a winnable game on Saturday? The last time we won a game in the "likely loss" category was week 8 last year - Northwestern was +10 by the numbers and we went to Evanston and beat 'em.

Week 11 can be found here.

As always, these are for entertainment purposes only.

I take the GOLDEN_MEAN score, found here, and add the home-field advantage to the home team to come up with predicted spreads/favorites. I've also noted the PREDICTOR spreads as well, in blue.

vs Ohio State +13.5 (+9)
@ Nebraska +15.5 (+11)
@ Wisconsin +19.5 (+14)

Predicted Record 7-5 (4-4)

Likely losses (>6 point difference in favor of opponent): vs Ohio State, @ Nebraska, @ Wisconsin

 

[bleedsmaroonandgold]

Thanks for posting, I look forward to seeing these every week. I know we have talked this to death in the past when you've posted this, but I see Wisconsin as our best shot at a win the rest of the way, yet the predictions show them as the toughest. I just don't get it, Wisconsin has two losses (one to a terrible Northwestern team), and Nebraska's only loss came against MSU.

Either way, to echo SS' sentiments from a few weeks back, if anyone wants to give me even money that Wiscosin beats us by more than 19.5, I'll take the bet right now.

 

[Gopher07]

Thanks for posting, I look forward to seeing these every week. I know we have talked this to death in the past when you've posted this, but I see Wisconsin as our best shot at a win the rest of the way, yet the predictions show them as the toughest. I just don't get it, Wisconsin has two losses (one to a terrible Northwestern team), and Nebraska's only loss came against MSU.

Either way, to echo SS' sentiments from a few weeks back, if anyone wants to give me even money that Wiscosin beats us by more than 19.5, I'll take the bet right now.

Wisconsin is benefiting a lot from playing and dominating a squishy soft schedule to date. They've outscored their B1G opponents by an average of 35-14 ... but those teams are a combined 7-15 in conference play outside of playing the Badgers. Their last three opponents are a combined 11-4. Saturday will tell us a lot, IMO. Still, their defense appears to be coming into form at the right time.

 

[homermn]

Wisconsin is getting a lot of credit for playing really really well against nobody. I'm ready to see this game against Nebraska on Saturday and I fully expect the game at Iowa City to be close.

 

[bleedsmaroonandgold]

Wisconsin is getting a lot of credit for playing really really well against nobody. I'm ready to see this game against Nebraska on Saturday and I fully expect the game at Iowa City to be close.

I think this is probably my biggest gripe with Sagarin. It seems like it disproportionately rewards teams who run up the score against bad competition. I looked it up, and even after losing to UNI, Sagarin still ranks NDSU ahead of us.

 

[Sparlimb]

I think this is probably my biggest gripe with Sagarin. It seems like it disproportionately rewards teams who run up the score against bad competition. I looked it up, and even after losing to UNI, Sagarin still ranks NDSU ahead of us.

Yet we did not pass Iowa in the Sagarin rankings after drubbing them last week. So it may be more complicated than it first appears.