Sagarin Predictions: Week 11

[Gopher07]

Toss-ups, get your toss-ups here!

With Nebraska's 59-point loss to Ohio State, and our win over Purdue, it has happened - Nebraska has moved into tossup territory for the Gophers. The line is just south of what was expected when we played Iowa, and just north of what was expected when we played Penn State. Of course, we would lose both of those games, but close. We could see something similar on Saturday, but with Armstrong's availability in question, it could tip the scales toward the Gophers. Needless to say, Saturday is probably the biggest Gopher game since the Citrus Bowl and these numbers say we should be competitive.

As for the rest of the season, Northwestern is a solid pick 'em right now. That's the big difference between and 8-win season and a 7-win season. And while I wish it weren't true, Wisconsin still holds a huge edge over us. Win this weekend and both of those games probably swing more toward us.

A reminder on how I arrive here, I take Jeff Sagarin's predictor ratings (found here), and calculate what the computer says the spread should be, for now through the end of the season. Negative numbers favor the Gophers, positive favor the opponent.

Previous weeks are below:
Preseason
Week 2
Week 3
Week 5
Week 6
Week 7
Week 8
Week 9
Week 10

vs Oregon State W (predicted -8; actual -7)
vs Indiana State W (predicted -17.5; actual -30)
vs Colorado State W (predicted -17.5; actual -7)
@ Penn State L (predicted +4; actual +3)
vs Iowa L (predicted +8; actual +7)
@ Maryland W (predicted: +3.5; actual -21)
vs Rutgers W (predicted: -20.5; actual -2)
@ Illinois W (predicted -3; actual -23)
vs Purdue W (predicted -19.5; actual -13)
@ Nebraska +6
vs Northwestern PICK
@ Wisconsin +15.5

Final record: 7-5 (4-5)/8-4 (5-4)

Likely in the W column (>7-point advantage to Minnesota):
Toss ups (no team with a greater than 7-point advantage): @ Nebraska, vs Northwestern
Likely in the L column (>7-point advantage to opponent): @ Wisconsin

 

[upnorthkid]

Just win baby

 

[VACTERL]

Love it.

I appreciate you.

 

[A_Slab_of_Bacon]

I'm really glad that Northwestern game is at home. I don't know who will win but I'm glad it is here.

 

[Gopher07]

BTW, interesting side note - this week's record prediction is exactly the same as the preseason prediction (even having NW as a pick game). So far, the preseason prediction has called every win and loss (though certainly not the magnitude of those wins and losses). Could just be blind luck, but interesting to me nonetheless.

 

[MNVCGUY]

I'm really glad that Northwestern game is at home. I don't know who will win but I'm glad it is here.

In theory I would agree with you but this years team has fared a lot better on the road then at home. At home we needed a late field goal to beat Rutgers, and Purdue was within 6 late (not going to mention the Iowa game, trying to forget that one). On the road we nearly upset what has proven to be a very good Penn State team and handled Maryland and Illinois pretty easily. Way things have gone to this point I would almost rather have that one on the road.

 

[mnsportsgeek]

Have to think Nebraska is more like a pick em if Armstrong can't go.