Sagarin Predictions: Week 11

[Gopher07]

Back after the bye, and big wins for our upcoming opponents means numbers don't like the Gophers as much. The Iowa spread moved slightly in their favor following the beatdown of NW, but remains essentially a toss-up based on the inputs for the models. Wisconsin seems an impossibility at this point, our largest gap this year (larger than the predicted +22 TCU margin at the time we played them).

Week 10 can be found here.

As always, these are for entertainment purposes only.

I take the GOLDEN_MEAN score, found here, and add the home-field advantage to the home team to come up with predicted spreads/favorites. I've also noted the PREDICTOR spreads as well, in blue.

vs Iowa +3 (+1.5)
vs Ohio State +13 (+11)
@ Nebraska +17.5 (+14.5)
@ Wisconsin +22.5 (+17)

Predicted Record 6-6 (3-5)

Likely toss-ups (within 6 points): vs Iowa
Likely losses (>6 point difference in favor of opponent): vs Ohio State, @ Nebraska, @ Wisconsin

 

[MNVCGUY]

Thanks as always for posting. Still don't understand why the Wisconsin spread is bigger then both the Ohio State and Nebraska ones.

 

[e.bigelow]

Thanks as always for posting. Still don't understand why the Wisconsin spread is bigger then both the Ohio State and Nebraska ones.

+1

 

[MNBadgerGuy]

Despite Wisconsin being completely limited in their QB play, as both options are horrendous, they still have the #3 ranked total offense in the conference. Match that with the #1 ranked total defense in the conference and they are a pretty good team.

I certainly don't expect the Vegas line to be UW -22.5 though.