Gopher07
Captain of Awesome
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- Nov 20, 2008
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Believe it or not, last weekend was a toss-up game - and we won, of course. That brings our record to 2-1 in the toss-ups this year (lone loss to Penn State), 4-0 in likely wins, and 0-1 in likely losses. The good news is, we have another "likely win" on the schedule this week with Purdue.
That said, we'll need to see if the recent trend of outperforming expectations on the road and underperforming at home continues - potentially due to Hardin/Buford being away from the field - or if the Rutgers game was an outlier. In our last two road games, we outperformed the formula by 20+, but were closer to Rutgers by nearly the same margin two weeks ago.
Interestingly, the Nebraska line has creeped a little closer to toss-up territory. I don't foresee it getting there, barring a complete blowout by OSU and a complete blowout by Minnesota this weekend - but it may end up close, about in the same range as Iowa when we played them (+8 or so). After that, Northwestern remains very much a toss-up.
A reminder on how I arrive here, I take Jeff Sagarin's predictor ratings (found here), and calculate what the computer says the spread should be, for now through the end of the season. Negative numbers favor the Gophers, positive favor the opponent.
Previous weeks are below:
Preseason
Week 2
Week 3
Week 5
Week 6
Week 7
Week 8
Week 9
vs Oregon State W (predicted -8; actual -7)
vs Indiana State W (predicted -17.5; actual -30)
vs Colorado State W (predicted -17.5; actual -7)
@ Penn State L (predicted +4; actual +3)
vs Iowa L (predicted +8; actual +7)
@ Maryland W (predicted: +3.5; actual -21)
vs Rutgers W (predicted: -20.5; actual -2)
@ Illinois W (predicted -3; actual -23)
vs Purdue -19.5
@ Nebraska +9.5
vs Northwestern +0.5
@ Wisconsin +14.5
Final record: 7-5 (4-5)
Likely in the W column (>7-point advantage to Minnesota): vs Purdue
Toss ups (no team with a greater than 7-point advantage): vs Northwestern
Likely in the L column (>7-point advantage to opponent): @ Nebraska, @ Wisconsin
That said, we'll need to see if the recent trend of outperforming expectations on the road and underperforming at home continues - potentially due to Hardin/Buford being away from the field - or if the Rutgers game was an outlier. In our last two road games, we outperformed the formula by 20+, but were closer to Rutgers by nearly the same margin two weeks ago.
Interestingly, the Nebraska line has creeped a little closer to toss-up territory. I don't foresee it getting there, barring a complete blowout by OSU and a complete blowout by Minnesota this weekend - but it may end up close, about in the same range as Iowa when we played them (+8 or so). After that, Northwestern remains very much a toss-up.
A reminder on how I arrive here, I take Jeff Sagarin's predictor ratings (found here), and calculate what the computer says the spread should be, for now through the end of the season. Negative numbers favor the Gophers, positive favor the opponent.
Previous weeks are below:
Preseason
Week 2
Week 3
Week 5
Week 6
Week 7
Week 8
Week 9
vs Oregon State W (predicted -8; actual -7)
vs Indiana State W (predicted -17.5; actual -30)
vs Colorado State W (predicted -17.5; actual -7)
@ Penn State L (predicted +4; actual +3)
vs Iowa L (predicted +8; actual +7)
@ Maryland W (predicted: +3.5; actual -21)
vs Rutgers W (predicted: -20.5; actual -2)
@ Illinois W (predicted -3; actual -23)
vs Purdue -19.5
@ Nebraska +9.5
vs Northwestern +0.5
@ Wisconsin +14.5
Final record: 7-5 (4-5)
Likely in the W column (>7-point advantage to Minnesota): vs Purdue
Toss ups (no team with a greater than 7-point advantage): vs Northwestern
Likely in the L column (>7-point advantage to opponent): @ Nebraska, @ Wisconsin
