Sagarin Predictions 11/28

[Gopher07]

I've been doing this on the football board but thought it'd be interesting to give it a go on the hardwood. Nothing more than damn lies but fun to dream about. Hopefully I'll get around to updating it on a weekly basis but may miss here and there.

Sagarin's ratings can be found here: http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/bkt.htm

I take [home team rating + 4.07 (home court advantage)] - [away team rating] to show spreads.

Minnesota, #10, 89.22 PREDICTOR rating. Results/predicted lines in parentheses.

Current record: 7-1 (0-0)

Remaining games:
vs North Florida -21.5
vs South Dakota St -16.5
@ USC -8
vs North Dakota St -16.5
vs Lafayette -29
vs Michigan St -8.5
vs Northwestern -12
@ Illinois -0.5
@ Indiana +11.5
vs Michigan -0.5
@ Northwestern -4
@ Wisconsin +4.5
vs Nebraska -18
vs Iowa -12.5
@ Michigan St -0.5
vs Illinois -8.5
vs Wisconsin -4
@ Iowa -4
@ Ohio St +5.5
vs Indiana +3.5
vs Penn St -19
@ Nebraska -10
@ Purdue -4.5

Final predicted record (as of 11/28): 26-5 (14-4)

So, probably at little unrealistic at this point, but I think I'd take that

 

[scher215]

Seems about right lol

In all seriousness though that basically suggests to basically win all your games at home except for Indiana and beat the non-elite teams on the road.

Seems like a reasonable formula for success.

Even if you change the .5 games to losses the Gophers still come out 11-7. Not a bad season by any means.

 

[Gold Vision]

RPI Forecast is a fun site that uses the Sagarin predictor to forecast RPI and conference records. This has yet to be updated from last night's game, but it showed last night game as a statistical toss up, so that was a good win based on the early Sagarin rankings.

 

[Gopher07]

RPI Forecast is a fun site that uses the Sagarin predictor to forecast RPI and conference records. This has yet to be updated from last night's game, but it showed last night game as a statistical toss up, so that was a good win based on the early Sagarin rankings.

Nice! Somehow I didn't know about this site, and looks like it does all my work for me.



Aw crap, I'm out of a job.

 

[Plinnius]

Pomeroy currently has our projection at 23-8/11-7. He has the Big Ten as:

Indiana: 15-3
Ohio State: 12-6
Michigan: 12-6
Wisconsin: 12-6
Minnesota: 11-7
Michigan State: 10-8
Illinois: 8-10
Purdue: 8-10
Iowa: 7-11
Northwestern: 6-12
Penn State: 5-13
Nebraska: 3-15

 

[SelectionSunday]

Jerry Palm RPI ratings

Gophers improved to #16 in Jerry Palm's RPI ratings after last night, fifth best among Big Ten teams: Michigan (#2), Indiana (#6), Illinois (#7), and Ohio State (#14).