Road to Selection Sunday (Week 6)

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SelectionSunday

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RPI data (through Sunday's games) is courtesy of CollegeRPI.com.

BITS & PIECES
(1) The top 5 in the RPI heading into the new week. ... (1) Duke 7-1; (2) Kansas State (8-1); (3) West Virginia (7-0); (4) Texas (8-0); and (5) St. John's (8-1).

(2) Yes, Saint Joe's isn't as good as they've been in recent years, but for the first time this season leaving The Barn on Saturday I felt pretty good about the Gophers. Pretty much a solid, wire-to-wire outstanding performance. I'm still not convinced the Gophers can beat the elite of the Big 10 (Purdue and Michigan State), but I think they can compete favorably with the rest of the league. Problem is, the Gophers probably need to beat either/both of those teams a couple times to truly grab the Selection Committee's attention.

(3) There are 11 remaining unbeaten teams. The unblemished are: Georgetown (Big East); Kansas (Big 12); Kentucky (SEC); Missouri State (Missouri Valley); New Mexico (Mountain West): Purdue (Big 10); Seton Hall (Big East); Syracuse (Big East); Texas (Big 12); Texas Tech (Big 12); and West Virginia (Big East).

(4) Not that Iowa fans would pine for Steve Alford and want him back, but it is worth noting Alfie is doing a bang-up job at New Mexico in his third season. The Lobos are 10-0, and that includes wins over potential NCAA Tournament teams Cal and Texas A&M. The Lobos can further enhance their resume with games at The Pit vs. Texas Tech (Dec. 29) and Dayton (Jan. 1).

(5) If the Atlantic 10 ends up receiving 3-5 NCAA tourney bids, it may look back to Sunday as the day that turned the tide. Yesterday the A-10 logged three significant wins. ... Rhode Island over Boston College, Xavier over Cincinnati, and Temple over previously unbeaten Villanova. If there's one league sure to benefit from the Pac 10's 2009-10 woes, it will be the A-10.

(6) My 2 cents: Jeremiah Rivers has been a nice addition to an improving Indiana squad, but I think he's a tad on the overrated side. The talking heads have made him out to be a fantastic player, but I wouldn't go anywhere near that far.

(7) Is anyone else ready for the start of the Big 10 season? It's been a dull pre-Big 10 slate at Williams Arena, certainly rivaling two years ago (a weak home schedule was excusable then) for the weakest in Tubby's tenure. The Gophers' average margin of victory at Williams Arena in non-Big 10 games since the 2007-08 season. ... 22.9 (2007-08), 15.1 (2008-09) and 31.8 (2009-10 thus far).

(8) K-State and Georgetown were far and away the biggest winners this week in terms of solidifying NCAA tournament resumes. Frank Martin's Wildcats beat Xavier and UNLV, while JT III's Hoyas got the best of Butler and Washington.

(9) Don't get me wrong (from my seat I have a good view of it), every Gopher player stands respectfully as the national anthem is played/sung. But I have to admit, it surprises me that only one Gopher player puts his hand over his heart every single time the anthem is played. Kudos to Paul Carter for being that guy.

THIS WEEK IN THE BIG 10
Tuesday
Northern Illinois at Minnesota

Wednesday
North Florida at Northwestern
Presbyterian at Ohio State
Cal Poly at Wisconsin

Saturday
Illinois vs. Georgia
North Carolina Central at Indiana
Drake at Iowa
Michigan at Kansas
IPFW at Michigan State
Stanford at Northwestern
Delaware State at Ohio State
Gardner-Webb at Penn State
Ball State at Purdue

WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON (NON-BIG 10)
Wednesday
Cincinnati at UAB
Ole Miss vs. UTEP
Richmond at South Carolina
Wright State at Mississippi State

Friday
Pacific at St. Mary's

Saturday
Alabama vs. Kansas State
Duke vs. Gonzaga
Florida vs. Richmond
Illinois State at Utah
North Carolina at Texas
Portland at Washington
San Diego State at Arizona State
Temple at Seton Hall
Texas Tech at Wichita State
Xavier at Butler

Sunday
Florida State at Georgia Tech
NC State at Wake Forest

UPSET SPECIAL (2-3)
UTEP over Ole Miss (Wednesday). I fall back under the .500 mark with Illinois' 78-68 win over Vandy.

THE "STAPLES"
Non-BCS Wins over the Big 6 (by team)
Gonzaga (4) -- Cincinnati, Colorado, Wazzu, Wisconsin
Butler (3) -- Northwestern, Ohio State, UCLA
Northern Iowa (3) -- Boston College, Iowa, Iowa State
Portland (3) -- Minnesota, Oregon, UCLA
Temple (3) -- Penn State, Villanova, Virginia Tech
Loyola Marymount (2) -- Notre Dame, USC
New Mexico (2) -- Cal, Texas A&M
Oral Roberts (2) -- Mizzou, Stanford
Rhode Island (2) -- Boston College, Providence
Richmond (2) -- Mississippi State, Mizzou
San Diego (2) -- Oklahoma, Stanford
UNLV (2) -- Arizona, Louisville
Utah (2) -- Illinois, Michigan
Boston U (1) -- Indiana
Bradley (1) -- Illinois
BYU (1) -- Arizona State
Cal State Fullerton (1) -- UCLA
Central Florida (1) -- Auburn
Central Michigan (1) -- South Florida
Charlotte (1) -- Louisville
Colorado State (1) -- Colorado
Cornell (1) -- Alabama
Creighton (1) -- Nebraska
Dayton (1) -- Georgia Tech
Duquesne (1) -- Iowa
East Tennessee State (1) -- Arkansas
George Mason (1) -- Indiana
Green Bay (1) -- Wisconsin
Harvard (1) -- Boston College
Houston (1) -- Oklahoma
Iona (1) -- Providence
Long Beach State (1) -- UCLA
Missouri State (1) -- Auburn
Montana (1) -- Oregon
Morgan State (1) -- Arkansas
NC-Wilmington (1) -- Penn State
Rider (1) -- Mississippi State
Sacramento State (1) -- Oregon State
Saint Joseph's (1) -- Boston College
Saint Louis (1) -- Nebraska
St. Mary's (1) -- Oregon
San Diego State (1) -- Arizona
South Alabama (1) -- Arkansas
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi (1) -- Oregon State
Texas San-Antonio (1) -- Iowa
Troy (1) -- Auburn
Tulane (1) -- Penn State
Tulsa (1) -- Oklahoma State
UAB (1) -- Georgia
Vermont (1) -- Rutgers
VCU (1) -- Oklahoma
Western Carolina (1) -- Louisville
Western Kentucky (1) -- Vandy
Wichita State (1) -- Iowa
William & Mary (1) -- Wake Forest
Wofford (1) -- Georgia
Xavier (1) -- Cincinnati

WEEK 5 RESUME BUILDERS
1. BYU over Arizona State
2. Butler over Ohio State
3. Cal over Pacific
4. Georgetown over Butler
5. Georgetown over Washington
6. Illinois over Vandy
7. Kansas State over UNLV
8. Kansas State over Xavier
9. New Mexico over Texas A&M
10. Northern Iowa over Siena
11. Rhode Island over Boston College
12. Temple over Villanova
13. VCU over Richmond
14. Virginia Tech over Penn State
15. Western Carolina over Louisville
16. Western Kentucky over Vandy
17. Wisconsin over Marquette
18. Xavier over Cincinnati

WEEK 5 MOST STUNNING RESULT
Loyola Marymount 87, Notre Dame 85 -- Certainly Western Carolina over Louisville & Green Bay over Wisconsin deserve mention, but LMU's win over the Irish in South Bend takes the cake. Once again it looks like the Irish have no intention of playing defense.

MY FANTASTIC 5 (ALPHABETICAL ORDER)
1. Kansas (holdover)
2. Kentucky (holdover)
3. Purdue (holdover)
4. Texas (holdover)
5. West Virginia (holdover)

MY BIG 10 POWER RANKINGS
1. Purdue (9-0)
2. Wisconsin (7-2)
3. Michigan State (8-2)
4. Illinois (8-2)
5. Northwestern (7-1)
6. Minnesota (7-3)
7. Ohio State (7-2)
8. Penn State (6-4)
9. Michigan (4-4)
10. Indiana (4-5)
11. Iowa (3-7)

BIG 10 IN THE RPI
7. Purdue
31. Wisconsin
40. Northwestern
46. Ohio State
54. Minnesota
59. Michigan State
94. Illinois
184. Iowa
194. Indiana
220. Penn State
235. Michigan

GOPHERS' NONCONFERENCE OPPONENTS IN THE RPI
17. Texas A&M (7-2)
37. Butler (7-3, 1-0)
63. Portland (6-3)
67. Miami-Florida (8-1, 0-1)
108. Saint Joseph's (3-6)
132. Morgan State (6-4, 1-0)
183. Tennessee Tech (4-6, 0-1)
186. Brown (3-7)
187. Stephen F. Austin (5-2)
212. South Dakota State (2-6, 1-1)
238. Northern Illinois (1-5)
334. Utah Valley (2-5)

BCS CONFERENCES HEAD TO HEAD
Standings
1. Big 12 (16-8, 66.7%)
2. SEC (20-16, 55.6%)
3. ACC (19-16, 54.3%)
4. Big 10 (16-15, 51.6%)
5. Big East (14-16, 46.7%)
6. Pac 10 (5-19, 20.8%)

Week 5 Results (not listed among resume builders)
Auburn 68, Virginia 67
Indiana 74, Pitt 64
Iowa State 81, Iowa 71
Kentucky 90, Indiana 73
Kentucky 64, UConn 61
Mississippi State 76, DePaul 45
Mississippi State 72, UCLA 54
Nebraska 50, Oregon State 44
Purdue 73, Alabama 65
St. John's 66, Georgia 56
Syracuse 85, Florida 73

Next RTSS: Monday, December 21
 

SS - Thanks as always for the recap. I have a couple RPI/resume questions for you...

With the A10 looking better, what are the odds St. Joes can crack the RPI top 100? Where might they need to land in conference to give us a RPI top 100?

Along the same lines if Portland drops a couple in the WCC is there any worry they slip out of the the top 100? Or perhaps they finish 2nd to Gonzaga any chance they crack top 50?

And do we have NDSUs this year with SFA or Morgan running the table and getting us some resume help with a conference title or RPI top 100?

Last but not least as I'm looking at the various conferences a question dawned upon me - Is there general breakpoint in the conferences where no matter what you do you will have some RPI erosion? The opposite side of it is Indiana and especially Iowa may not win many B10 games, but they will likely rise close to 100 spots in the RPI just by mostly losing to good teams. How does that affect a Morgan State or SFA? Do they have to win 75% of their conference games merely to maintain their RPI? ... hopefully you kind of get what I'm trying to ask.

Thanks.
 

Good stuff as always.

I hope it is still early, because the RPI's of the Big Ten teams are not very impressive. It is hard for them to move a lot once the conference season starts.

I still think the league is going to be very competitive and entertaing this year and as usual, it will come down to how you play on the road.

Is still really like the Badgers chances in the conference, despite the loss to Green Bay.

Leuer is going to be a force in the conference this year and next year.
 

GVBadger said:
Good stuff as always.

I hope it is still early, because the RPI's of the Big Ten teams are not very impressive. It is hard for them to move a lot once the conference season starts.

I still think the league is going to be very competitive and entertaing this year and as usual, it will come down to how you play on the road.

Is still really like the Badgers chances in the conference, despite the loss to Green Bay.

Leuer is going to be a force in the conference this year and next year.
Click to expand...

I'm not sure how many chances are left for good inter-conference wins. Hopefully MSU can take out Texas. That would be big. Michigan also has a shot at Kansas, but it's hard to see the winning that one.
 

I'm very intrigued by Northwestern. They've set themselves up well for conference play if they can make a good showing there.
 


The Rest Of The Way

Presuming 9-3 after OOC schedule is complete, Gophers must get 12 or 13 W in B10 to earn NCAA bid. That can be 10 or 11 W in regular season and 1 or 2 in B10 tourney, or 12 W in regular season plus 1 W in B10 tourney.

I still think Gophers need 22 or 23 W on Selection Sunday to get NCAA bid.
 

Answers for Inflectionpoint

Some "cliff notes" answers (due to time limitations) to your questions:

(1) The A-10 looks really strong this season. My guess is if Saint Joe's finishes .500 in that league, they'll end up being a top-100 win for the Gophers.

(2) Regarding Portland, my hunch is they won't end up being a top-50 opponent, unless they win at Washington and get a split with Gonzaga. Probably will end up in the 51-100 range. Just won't be many opportunities for quality wins in the WCC other than the Zags and St. Mary's (San Diego is sliding). If they struggle in the WCC (4 or more losses), I fear they'll end up in the "bad loss" category (RPI of 101+) for the Gophers.

(3) I would expect Butler and perhaps Saint Joe's to be the Gophers' only top-100 wins outside the Big 10. Maybe Morgan State, but the MEAC will drag them down. Yes, it's nice if a couple of the no-name teams we play earn their conferences' automatic bids (i.e Cornell & NDSU last season), but if they finish outside of the top 100 (i.e. Cornell) I'm not sure it really has much impact. Those are what I call nice "supplemental" wins, but when they're among your best 3-4 wins outside of your league, that's pretty weak.
 

Northwestern

I'm intrigued by Northwestern as well, am impressed what they've done without Coble. However, I'm not ready to say they're a sure-fire NCAA team the way Jay Bilas was talking the other day. No question the Wildcats have put themselves in a good position (much better than the Gophers' position) with their out-of-league performance, but they still have to win a lot of games in a very tough league. I'd love it if they make the NCAAs, as long as it's not at the expense of the Gophers.
 

SelectionSunday said:
BITS & PIECES
(1) The top 5 in the RPI heading into the new week. ... (1) Duke 7-1; (2) Kansas State (8-1); (3) West Virginia (7-0); (4) Texas (8-0); and (5) St. John's (8-1).
Click to expand...

I'm surprised Purdue at 9-0 didn't crack the top 5. They had a nice come-from-behind win at Alabama to go along with a couple of decent wins over Tennessee and Wake Forest.
 




SelectionSunday said:
(1) The A-10 looks really strong this season. My guess is if Saint Joe's finishes .500 in that league, they'll end up being a top-100 win for the Gophers.

I would expect Butler and perhaps Saint Joe's to be the Gophers' only top-100 wins outside the Big 10. Maybe Morgan State, but the MEAC will drag them down.
Click to expand...

Agree that the A-10 looks really strong, but Saint Joe's faces an uphill battle to end up as a top 100 team. Their current 3-6 record is second worst in the A-10 with only conference doormat, Fordham, below them at 2-6. While the league is stronger than ever, most experts agree that St. Joe's is probably not quite as good as their team from last year that ended up tied for 5th in the A-10 and finished with an RPI of 105. I don't expect them to finish .500, but even if they do, out of conference losses to the likes of DePaul, Rider and Cornell will hurt their RPI.

Morgan State will likely win the MEAC with a team not quite as good as last year's; because the MEAC is considered such a weak league (ranked 30th out of 32 last year), Morgan State had an RPI of 129 despite winning 22 games last year.
 

howeda7 said:
I'm not sure how many chances are left for good inter-conference wins. Hopefully MSU can take out Texas. That would be big. Michigan also has a shot at Kansas, but it's hard to see the winning that one.
Click to expand...
Purdue also gets a shot at RPI #3 West Virginia.
 

Still a few RPI opportunities for Big 10 squads. ...

Illinois still has Gonzaga and Mizzou.

Michigan still has Kansas & UConn.

Sparty still has Texas.

The OSU still has West Virginia, granted, without Turner.

Purdue still has West Virginia.

I wish the Gophers had another opportunity to enhance their resume before Big 10 play, as they didn't do enough (1-3) with their mimimal road/neutral opportunities (76 Classic & ACC Challenge). If they had simply beat Texas A&M I'd feel so much better about their at-large chances.
 



SS,

Temple's number of wins over the Big 6 conference schools should be at 3. The Owls also defeated Penn St.

I hate to see any of my "sweatshirt" schools get short-changed.
 

Thank you SS, I'm slipping in my old age and have probably missed a few others. Will make the addition.
 

SelectionSunday said:
Illinois still has Gonzaga and Mizzou.

Michigan still has Kansas & UConn.

Sparty still has Texas.

The OSU still has West Virginia, granted, without Turner.

Purdue still has West Virginia.

I wish the Gophers had another opportunity to enhance their resume before Big 10 play, as they didn't do enough (1-3) with their mimimal road/neutral opportunities (76 Classic & ACC Challenge). If they had simply beat Texas A&M I'd feel so much better about their at-large chances.
Click to expand...

True but a "good" L (like TAMU or Miami FL) is better than a "bad" L (any of several on Gophers' home schedule).
 

SelectionSunday said:
Just outside the top 5 at #7.
Click to expand...

My surprise at Purdue missing the Top 5 probably has more to do with the fact that unranked St. John's made the list at #5 - hard to figure. They did beat some good teams at home (Georgia, Siena and Temple - how would you like a home NC schedule that featured those teams?). Their loss at Duke is excusable but barely beating Brown (remember those guys?) by 3 points at home makes me wonder how good they really are.

There are probably a few anomalies in the RPI rankings this early in the year but St. John's ranking relative to Purdue really stands out for me.
 

Definitely still early with regards to RPI rankings, but at least now there have been enough games where it's starting to take some shape. By the new year is when we'll have a pretty good idea of what teams will need to do (RPI-wise) to make themselves viable at-large contenders.
 

Friend Of Tubby said:
True but a "good" L (like TAMU or Miami FL) is better than a "bad" L (any of several on Gophers' home schedule).
Click to expand...

One could even argue that a good "L" is better than a "bad" W. Scheduling nothing but creampuffs at home is counter-productive IMO. The Committee gives you NO credit for beating bad teams, particularly at home (because you're expected to win against the have-nots). On the other hand, if you go out and play good competition (home, away or neutral), the Committee gives you credit even if you lose a few.
 

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