Road to Selection Sunday (Week 12)/"Field of 65" (1/25/10)

[SelectionSunday]

From here on out it's all about the bubble and a "Field of 65" projection every week (Sunday or Monday). I'll mix in a few bits & pieces here and there. All RPI rankings are courtesy of CollegeRPI.com.

BITS & PIECES
(1) The Top 5 in the RPI -- (1) Syracuse (19-1); (2) Kansas (18-1); (3) Duke (16-3); (4) Villanova (18-1); and (5) West Virginia (15-3).

(2) Big Ten Road Tote Board -- There have been 14 road wins in the Big Ten so far this season. Michigan State leads with three (Iowa, Minnesota, Northwestern), followed by Purdue (Illinois, Iowa) and Wisconsin (Northwestern, Penn State) with two. Illinois (Indiana), Indiana (Penn State), Iowa (Indiana), Michigan (Penn State), Minnesota (Iowa), Northwestern (Michigan) and Ohio State (Purdue) all have one each.

(3) Something to Think About -- If the Gophers win the rest of their home games, the worst they'll finish is 9-9. An enormous task, yes, but after the way they played vs. Sparty, I at least think it's possible. Finishing in the top four is certainly out of reach, but the Gophers still have an excellent chance to finish fifth and earn the Big Ten Tournament's fifth and final bye, which would be important if they're still within sniffing distance (1 or 2 wins) of getting onto the bubble. The Gophers have five games remaining vs. their main competition (Illinois, Michigan, Northwestern) for the #5 seed.

As difficult as it is to do some times (Saturday was a gut-wrencher, for sure), keep the faith. Win the next game (Northwestern) and then go from there. One thing is clear: the bubble is becoming a muddled mess. There are a lot of teams that look alike and have similar records. The Gophers -- as bleak as things look right now -- are one of those many teams.

(4) Crucial Week in Evanston -- This is a gigantic week for Northwestern's at-large hopes. If the Wildcats can somehow manage a split on their Minnesota/Michigan State road trip, they'll be in great shape to get their first-ever NCAA bid. They've built a solid (if not spectacular) resume to this point, and take a look at the second half of their Big Ten schedule. The Wildcats play conference bottom-feeders Indiana, Iowa and Penn State twice, and also get Michigan and Minnesota at home.

(5) An Early Blind Resume -- Here's a resume check for two teams with the same record. Can you name the teams?

Team A
RPI: 66
Record: 12-7
Record vs. Top 50: 2-4
Record vs. Top 100: 2-6
Best 3 Wins (by RPI): #24, #36, #132
Road/Neutral Record: 2-6
Wins vs. Current Automatic Qualifiers: 2

Team B
RPI: 73
Record: 12-7
Record vs. Top 50: 2-6
Record vs. Top 100: 5-7
Best 3 Wins (by RPI): #14, #46, #64
Road/Neutral Record: 1-5
Wins vs. Current Automatic Qualifiers: 1

Week 12's Key Bubble Games
North Carolina at NC State (Tuesday)
Northwestern at Minnesota (Tuesday)
Rhode Island at Dayton (Tuesday)
Tulsa at UAB (Tuesday)
Georgia at Florida (Wednesday)
Notre Dame at Villanova (Wednesday)
Temple at Charlotte (Wednesday)
Cal at Arizona State (Thursday)
Virginia Tech at Virginia (Thursday)
Harvard at Cornell (Saturday)
Louisville at West Virginia (Saturday)
Northwestern at Michigan State (Saturday)
Oklahoma State at Missouri (Saturday)
Old Dominion at Northeastern (Saturday)
Texas Tech at Texas A&M (Saturday)
Maryland at Clemson (Sunday)
Minnesota at Ohio State (Sunday)
Virginia Tech at Miami-Florida (Sunday)

MY FANTASTIC 5
1. Syracuse (host Georgetown tonight)
2. Kentucky (@ South Carolina on Tuesday)
3. Kansas (host Missouri tonight)
4. Villanova (host Notre Dame on Wednesday)
5. Michigan State (@ Michigan on Tuesday)

MY BIG TEN POWER RATINGS
1. Michigan State (17-3, 7-0)
2. Ohio State (14-6, 4-3)
3. Purdue (16-3, 4-3)
4. Wisconsin (16-4, 6-2)
5. Northwestern (14-5, 3-4)
6. Minnesota (12-7, 3-4)
7. Illinois (12-8, 4-3)
8. Michigan (9-9, 3-4)
9. Iowa (8-12, 2-5)
10. Indiana (9-10, 3-4)
11. Penn State (8-11, 0-7)

BIG TEN IN THE RPI
10. Wisconsin
12. Purdue
14. Michigan State
46. Ohio State
56. Northwestern
66. Minnesota
79. Illinois
114. Michigan
169. Iowa
215. Indiana
221. Penn State

GOPHERS' NONCONFERENCE OPPONENTS IN THE RPI
24. Butler (16-4, 9-0)
37. Texas A&M (13-5, 3-2)
98. Portland (11-7, 3-2)
99. Miami-Florida (14-4, 1-4)
132. Morgan State (13-7, 5-0)
140. Saint Joseph's (7-11, 2-3)
195. Stephen F. Austin (10-5, 3-2)
203. Tennessee Tech (8-10, 4-5)
211. South Dakota State (8-10, 6-3)
219. Northern Illinois (8-9, 4-1)
249. Brown (5-12, 1-1)
337. Utah Valley (5-10, 2-1)

BIG 6 HEAD TO HEAD
1. Big 12 (28-12, 70%)
2. ACC (24-20, 54.5%)
3. SEC (25-26, 49%)
4. Big 10 (19-20, 48.7%)
5. Big East (18-21, 46.2%)
6. Pac 10 (9-24, 27.3%)

**The Big Ten has played the same amount of nonconference games (39) vs. BCS schools as the Big East, yet the Big East has five more teams. That's an average of 3.5 per school (third among the 6 major conferences) for the Big Ten, 2.4 per school (far & away the worst among the 6 major conferences) for the Big East. For the record, the Gophers played two (Miami-Florida & Texas A&M) nonconference games vs. BCS opponents.

"FIELD OF 65" PROJECTION
*Denotes conference leader in multiple-bid league

America East (1): Maine (121)

ACC (7): Duke (3), Wake Forest (21), Georgia Tech (29), Florida State (39), Clemson (43), *Maryland (54), North Carolina (73)

Atlantic Sun (1): Campbell (178)

Atlantic Ten (5): *Temple (11), Xavier (13), Rhode Island (18), Dayton (38), Richmond (41)

Big East (7): Syracuse (1), *Villanova (4), West Virginia (5), Georgetown (6), Connecticut (16), Pitt (17), Cincinnati (48)

Big Sky (1): Weber State (92)

Big South (1): Coastal Carolina (135)

Big Ten (5): Wisconsin (10), Purdue (12), *Michigan State (14), Ohio State (46), Northwestern (56)

Big Twelve (7): *Kansas (2), Kansas State (8), Texas (9), Oklahoma State (28), Baylor (31), Texas A&M (37), Missouri (47)

Big West (1): Pacific (101)

Colonial (2): *Old Dominion (36), William & Mary (45)

Conference USA (1): UAB (25)

Horizon (1): Butler (24)

Ivy (1): Cornell (40)

Metro Atlantic (1): Siena (34)

MAC (1): Central Michigan (198)

MEAC (1): Morgan State (132)

Missouri Valley (1): Northern Iowa (20)

Mountain West (3): New Mexico (19), *BYU (22), UNLV (32)

Northeast (1): Robert Morris (180)

Ohio Valley (1): Murray State (78)

Pac 10 (1): Cal (26)

Patriot (1): Lehigh (175)

SEC (6): *Kentucky (7), Tennessee (15), Vanderbilt (27), Ole Miss (30), Mississippi State (55), Florida (62)

Southern (1): Charleston (83)

Southland (1): Texas A&M-Corpus Christi (131)

SWAC (1): Arkansas-Pine Bluff (210)

Summit (1): Oakland (65)

Sun Belt (1): Arkansas State (170)

West Coast (1): Gonzaga (23)

WAC (1): Louisiana Tech (57)

Non-BCS At-Larges (7): Xavier (13), Rhode Island (18), New Mexico (19), UNLV (32), Dayton (38), Richmond (41), William & Mary (45)

Last 4 In: Dayton (38), William & Mary (45), Northwestern (56), North Carolina (73)

First 4 Out: St. Mary's (35), Louisville (44), Seton Hall (51), Wichita State (52)

In the Mix (13): Texas Tech (33), VCU (49), Charlotte (50), Northeastern (53), Harvard (58), Utah State (61), Minnesota (66), Notre Dame (67), Virginia Tech (70), Tulsa (77), Illinois (79), Arizona State (81), Alabama (86)

***Joe Lunardi and I have two at-large differences. He has Arizona State & St. Mary's in the field, in their place I have Florida and Northwestern.

Next RTSS/Field of 65 Projection: Monday, February 1

 

[sal]

Rodents and Heels.
OK, you did include the RPI's in () so I could not help but eventually look.
If you would have told me in November that we would have a lower RPI than Carolina at the end of January I would have been tickled. Be careful what you wish for.

 

[SelectionSunday]

I think I made it too easy Sal, but I figured someone would catch on quickly.

I guess I'm just trying to offer some hope while so many are choosing despair. By and large the Tar Heels are still being projected into the field, and their resume, in my opinion, is only slightly better than that of the Gophers.