Road to Selection Sunday: Final Field of 68 Projection (3/11/12)

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SelectionSunday

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Here's my final projection of the NCAA Tournament field. For what it's worth, the Gophers had 2 wins vs. my projected field, Indiana and South Dakota State. Last season (2010-11) the Gophers had 6 such wins.

One quick note on my Field of 68. I had a difficult time not selecting Drexel (Colonial) or Washington (Pac 12) despite the fact their resumes stink and both belong nowhere near the bubble. In the end, I decided I was either going to take both of 'em or neither one. I chose neither one.

Please note below (after my "First 4 Out") the "either or" contingency regarding Sunday's Atlantic 10 championship game pitting St. Bonaventure vs. Xavier.

The envelope please. ...

FIELD OF 68 (Final 2012)
America East (1): Vermont

ACC (5): Duke, Florida State, North Carolina, NC State, Virginia

Atlantic Sun (1): Belmont

Atlantic 10 (3): Saint Louis, Temple, Xavier

Big East (10): Cincinnati, Georgetown, Louisville, Marquette, Notre Dame, Seton Hall, Syracuse, UConn, USF, West Virginia

Big Sky (1): Montana

Big South (1): UNC-Asheville

B1G (6): Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin

Big 12 (6): Baylor, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Missouri, Texas

Big West (1): Long Beach State

Colonial (1): VCU

Conference USA (2): Memphis, Southern Miss

Horizon (1): Detroit

Ivy (1): Harvard

Metro Atlantic (2): **Iona (see contingency), Loyola-Maryland

MAC (1): Ohio

MEAC (1): Norfolk State

Missouri Valley (2): Creighton, Wichita State

Mountain West (4): Colorado State, New Mexico, San Diego State, UNLV

Northeast (1): LIU

Ohio Valley (1): Murray State

Pac 12 (2): Cal, Colorado

Patriot (1): Lehigh

SEC (4): Alabama, Florida, Kentucky, Vanderbilt

Southern (1): Davidson

Southland (1): Lamar

SWAC (1): Mississippi Valley State

Summit (1): South Dakota State

Sun Belt (1): Western Kentucky

West Coast (3): BYU, Gonzaga, St. Mary's

WAC (1): New Mexico State
___________________________________

Last 4 In: BYU, **Iona, Texas, USF

First 4 Out: Drexel, Mississippi State, Saint Joseph's, Washington

**Sunday Contingency: If St. Bonaventure defeats Xavier in the Atlantic 10 championship game, the Bonnies replace Iona (my last team) in the field. In that scenario, Seton Hall then becomes the fourth of my "last 4 in".

Others Considered: Miami-Florida, Nevada, Ole Miss, Oral Roberts, Oregon

Non-BCS At-Larges (10): BYU, Colorado State, Gonzaga, Iona, Saint Louis, San Diego State, Southern Miss, Temple, UNLV, Wichita State

BCS Teams in the Field: 33 (48.5%)

Non-BCS Teams in the Field: 35 (51.5%)

My track record vs. the Bracketology gurus, Joe Lunardi and Jerry Palm (last 2 seasons). ...

Jerry Palm (CollegeRPI.com): 69 of 71 at-larges correct (97.2%)
SS (GopherHole): 68 of 71 at-larges correct (95.8%)
Joe Lunardi (ESPN.com): 67 of 71 at-larges correct (94.4%)

Enjoy March Madness, everyone. Here's hoping we (Gopher fans) have a dog in the NCAA fight in 2013.
 

Palm now has northwestern in his field. What do you think about that?
 


fan of Ray Williams said:
That sure surprises me.
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How you can go 1-10 against the top 50 and be in the tourney is baffling to me.
 

I saw that this morning, though it's not his final projection. I was surprised as well. Once Northwestern lost to the Gophers in the 1st round, I took them off my at-large board.

The fact that Palm has the Wildcats in gives me pause. Perhaps I undervalued them considering it's such a weak bubble? That said, I sure wouldn't mind if he's right about Northwestern. Would love to see the 'Cats get a bid.
 


Northwestern has ZERO business being in the NCAA tourney.
 

SelectionSunday said:
Enjoy March Madness, everyone. Here's hoping we (Gopher fans) have a dog in the NCAA fight in 2013.
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Copy that. Today would be a lot more fun and exciting. Good luck to the B1G schools, South Dakota State, Long Beach State and Harvard.
 

SelectionSunday said:
I saw that this morning, though it's not his final projection. I was surprised as well. Once Northwestern lost to the Gophers in the 1st round, I took them off my at-large board.

The fact that Palm has the Wildcats in gives me pause. Perhaps I undervalued them considering it's such a weak bubble? That said, I sure wouldn't mind if he's right about Northwestern. Would love to see the 'Cats get a bid.
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The thing that would make me most upset about NU getting in would be knowing that if the Gophers had just beat Iowa twice they'd have been in the tourney without even winning a BTT game.
 

I think Drexel is getting in. CAA has had two teams that were fringe at-larges get in. Both went to the final four.
 



Northwestern and seton hall both suck.
If they make the field there is a flaw in the selections process
 

It appears Jerry Palm is leaving Northwestern in his final bracket (as of 11:11 a.m. Sunday), and Lunardi announced his "last 4 in" and "first 4 out" on the Mother Ship (ESPN) this morning.

Assuming there are no more changes from Palm & Lunardi, the 3 of us disagree on only 1 team:

Palm has Northwestern in the field, but with NC State as his last team in (replaced by St. Bonny if it wins A-10).

Lunardi has Drexel as his last team in (replaced by St. Bonny if it wins A-10).

I have Iona as my last team in (replaced by St. Bonny if it wins A-10).
 

Looks like you have only one difference with Lunard, Drexel vs Iona. Personally, I think Washington gets in. They may not deserve it, but I have a hard time seeing them leave out the regular season champion of a BCS conference.
 

Northwestern's resume looks an awful lot like Tubby's first season in Minnesota.
 




Great job SS. Looks like you 'missed' only Iona vs Seton Hall.
 

One positive is that the selection committee clearly put a premium on SOS in nonconference. That means Esposito, schedule better nonconference opponents for the gophers
 

GopherGod said:
One positive is that the selection committee clearly put a premium on SOS in nonconference. That means Esposito, schedule better nonconference opponents for the gophers
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Not an issue next year between the Atlantis field, @USC, @ACC team TBD. Plus a rumored 'big name' game at the Barn as a 'reward' for forking over your $$.
 

howeda7 said:
Not an issue next year between the Atlantis field, @USC, @ACC team TBD. Plus a rumored 'big name' game at the Barn as a 'reward' for forking over your $$.
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Not an issue next two years with Maui Classic in 2013. 2010 was good too with Puerto Rico but this year fell flat. Home games in the OCC is another topic..
 

Final Tally: Lunardi and SS go 36 for 37, Palm goes 35 for 37

The final results for Palm, Lunardi and I. ...

Palm gets 35 of 37 correct. Palm had Northwestern and Seton Hall in the field, Iona and NC State made it in their place.

Lunardi gets 36 of 37 correct. Lunardi had Seton Hall in the field, Iona made it in their place.

I also got 36 of 37 correct, and I also had Seton Hall instead of Iona.

Our 3-year totals?

Palm and I are 104 of 108 on the at-larges for 96.3%.

Lunardi is 103 of 108 on the at-larges for 95.4%.
 


Thanks Ray. I just updated my stats over the 21 years I've done this, as well as Lunardi and Palm's numbers over the last 3 seasons. For now my calling card is my numbers are better than both Lunardi and Palm since the NCAA Tournament field expanded to 68!

SS Projecting At-Larges (1991-92 through 2011-12)
1991-92: 33/34
1992-93: 31/34
1993-94: 30/34
1994-95: 30/34
1995-96: 33/34
1996-97: 31/34
1997-98: 30/34
1998-99: 31/34
1999-00: 32/34
2000-01: 34/34 -- perfect --
2001-02: 33/34
2002-03: 33/34
2003-04: 31/34
2004-05: 32/34
2005-06: 31/34
2006-07: 32/34
2007-08: 33/34
2008-09: 34/34 -- perfect --
2009-10: 33/34 (Illinois; Florida in instead)
2010-11: 35/37 (Colorado/Virginia Tech; Georgia/UAB in instead)
2011-12: 36/37 (Seton Hall; Iona in instead)

Totals: 678/720 (94.2%)
Last 10 Years: 330/346 (95.4%)
Last 5 Years: 171/176 (97.2%)
Since Field of 68: 71/74 (95.9%)

Jerry Palm (CollegeRPI.com) At-Large Projections
2009-10: 34/34 -- perfect --
2010-11: 35/37 (St. Mary’s/Virginia Tech; UAB/USC in instead)
2011-12: 35/37 (Northwestern/Seton Hall; Iona/NC State instead)

Since Field of 68: 70/74 (94.6%)

Joe Lunardi (ESPN.com) At-Large Projections
2009-10: 33/34 (Illinois; Florida in instead)
2010-11: 34/37 (Colorado/St. Mary’s/Virginia Tech; Georgia/UAB/VCU in instead)
2011-12: 36/37 (Seton Hall; Iona in instead)

Since Field of 68: 70/74 (94.6%)
 

So Jerry Palm didn't share his drugs with you or Lunardi? Everyone knew Northwestern was out. I mean, really, a 4 seed in the NIT was in his field? Come on now. Just say no.
 

From the Barn said:
So Jerry Palm didn't share his drugs with you or Lunardi? Everyone knew Northwestern was out. I mean, really, a 4 seed in the NIT was in his field? Come on now. Just say no.
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I tend to listen to Palm more than Lunardi, but for the life of me I can't figure out what Palm was thinking. I did hear him talk about Northwestern "doing what they were supposed to do by beating the teams they should and not having any bad losses", but it's pretty rare when a team like that gets selected for the field.

Really, all they did was beat Michigan State, and I'll give them some credit for beating Seton Hall on a neutral court. That's it. Their next best wins were over LSU & the Gophers. That doesn't spell at-large to me.
 

SelectionSunday said:
I tend to respect Palm more than Lunardi, but for the life of me I can't figure out what Palm was thinking. I did hear him talk about Northwestern "doing what they were supposed to do by beating the teams they should and not having any bad losses", but it's pretty rare when a team like that gets selected for the field.

Really, all they did was beat Michigan State, and I'll give them some credit for beating Seton Hall on a neutral court. That's it. Their next best wins were over LSU & the Gophers. That doesn't spell at-large to me.
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Northwestern basically had the Gophers resume from 2008. And what did that give the Gophers? A 4 seed in the NIT, just like Northwestern this year.
 


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