Road to Selection Sunday: 11 At Large? Still 11 Spots Available

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SelectionSunday

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Here's my second to last Field of 68 projection for the 2011-12 season. I'll post my final one in the wee hours of Sunday morning, March 11 (Selection Sunday). ALL CAPS in bold-italic indicates the team already has earned its conference's automatic bid. RPI's are courtesy of Jerry Palm at CollegeRPI.com.

Heading into the meat of Championship Week, I have 57 of the 68 slots filled (including automatic-qualifier placeholders) for the NCAA Tournament field. I have 22 bubble teams jostling for the final 11 spots.

FIELD OF 68 (3/5/12)
America East (1): Stony Brook (139)

ACC (5): North Carolina (3), Duke (4), Florida State (24), Virginia (40), NC State (57)

Atlantic Sun (1): BELMONT (61)

Atlantic 10 (3): Temple (14), Saint Louis (29), Xavier (53)

Big East (9): Syracuse (1), Marquette (7), Georgetown (10), Louisville (27), UConn (34), Notre Dame (39), West Virginia (44), USF (46), Cincinnati (68)

Big Sky (1): Montana (83)

Big South (1): UNC-ASHEVILLE (107)

B1G (7): Michigan State (5), Ohio State (8), Michigan (11), Indiana (12), Wisconsin (23), Purdue (42), Northwestern (48)

Big 12 (5): Kansas (6), Baylor (9), Missouri (16), Iowa State (30), Kansas State (43)

Big West (1): Long Beach State (35)

Colonial (2): VCU (49), Drexel (63)

Conference USA (2): Southern Miss (17), Memphis (18)

Horizon (1): Valparaiso (88)

Ivy (1): Harvard (36)

Metro Atlantic (1): Loyola-Maryland (82)

MAC (1): Akron (62)

MEAC (1): Savannah State (180)

Missouri Valley (2): Wichita State (15), CREIGHTON (22)

Mountain West (4): UNLV (13), Colorado State (21), San Diego State (25), New Mexico (33)

Northeast (1): LIU (90)

Ohio Valley (1): MURRAY STATE (20)

Pac 12 (2): Cal (37), Washington (54)

Patriot (1): Bucknell (84)

SEC (5): Kentucky (2), Vanderbilt (26), Florida (28), Alabama (32), Mississippi State (65)

Southern (1): Davidson (66)

Southland (1): Texas-Arlington (97)

SWAC (1): Mississippi Valley State (156)

Summit (1): Oral Roberts (38)

Sun Belt (1): Denver (79)

West Coast (3): Gonzaga (19), St. Mary's (31), BYU (45)

WAC (1): Nevada (47)
___________________________

Last 4 In: USF (46), Northwestern (48), VCU (49), NC State (57)

First 4 Out: Oregon (50), Texas (51), Miami-Florida (56), Seton Hall (60)

Others Under Consideration: Iona (41), Saint Joseph's (55), Middle Tennessee State (59), UCF (64), Dayton (72), Tennessee (75), Arizona (76)

Non-BCS At-Larges (10): UNLV (13), Wichita State (15), Southern Miss (17), Gonzaga (19), Colorado State (21), Saint Louis (29), New Mexico (33), BYU (45), VCU (49), Xavier (53)

% of the Field from BCS Conferences: 48.5%

% of the Field from Non-BCS Conferences: 51.5%

Notes
** The Gophers' first three nonconference opponents (Bucknell, South Dakota State & Fairfield) all have advanced to the finals (Bucknell & Fairfield) or semifinals (South Dakota State -- plays Southern Utah tonight in the Summit League) of their respective conference tournaments. DePaul (Big East), Dayton (A-10), Virginia Tech (ACC), USC (Pac 12) and Central Michigan (MAC) begin conference tourney action this week. Mount St. Mary's, Indiana State, Appalachian State, St. Peter's and North Dakota State all either failed to qualify or have been eliminated from their conference tournaments.

** After losing its final regular-season game @ Cal State-Fullerton, spoiling its perfect conference season, Dan Monson's Long Beach State squad will endure a really sweaty Selection Sunday if it fails to win the Big West Tournament. The 49ers have played the nation's most difficult nonconference schedule (according to CollegeRPI.com), but they're 0-6 vs. the RPI top 50 and only 2-7 vs. the RPI top 100. The top-100 wins were against #53 Xavier on a neutral court and @ @98 Pitt.

** Northfield native Zach Filzen's Buffalo squad (#74 in the RPI) earned the #2 seed for the MAC Tournament, giving the Bulls a bye until Friday's semifinals. Buffalo swept Akron, the MAC regular-season champ.

** Two "under the radar" teams to look out for during Championship Week and beyond? I'm going with Iowa State (was in my preseason Top 25) and Temple.

** Two vastly overrated teams who may get dumped early in the NCAA Tournament? Gotta' go with Georgetown and Wisconsin.

** Joe Lunardi updated his bracket this morning. Lunardi & I currently have 2 differences in our at-large selections. Lunardi has Seton Hall and Texas in his Field of 68, in their place I have NC State and VCU.

** Jerry Palm also updated his bracket this morning. Palm & I currently have 2 differences in our at-large selections. Palm has Miami-Florida and Seton Hall in his Field of 68, in their place I have NC State and VCU.

** Speaking of Palm, here's how Palm, Joe Lunardi and I stack up picking the at-larges over the last 2 seasons. Lunardi picks up the rear. ...

Jerry Palm At-Large Projections
2009-10: 34/34 -- perfect --
2010-11: 35/37 (St. Mary’s/Virginia Tech; UAB/USC in instead)
Last 2 Years: 69/71 (97.2%)

SS At-Large Projections
2009-10: 33/34 (Illinois; Florida in instead)
2010-11: 35/37 (Colorado/Virginia Tech; Georgia/UAB in instead)
Last 2 Years: 68/71 (95.8%)

Joe Lunardi At-Large Projections
2009-10: 33/34 (Illinois; Florida in instead)
2010-11: 34/37 (Colorado/St. Mary’s/Virginia Tech; Georgia/UAB/VCU in instead)
Last 2 Years: 67/71 (94.4%)

And below are my at-large projection numbers since the 1991-92 season.
SS
1991-92: 33/34
1992-93: 31/34
1993-94: 30/34
1994-95: 30/34
1995-96: 33/34
1996-97: 31/34
1997-98: 30/34
1998-99: 31/34
1999-00: 32/34
2000-01: 34/34 -- perfect --
2001-02: 33/34
2002-03: 33/34
2003-04: 31/34
2004-05: 32/34
2005-06: 31/34
2006-07: 32/34
2007-08: 33/34
2008-09: 34/34 -- perfect --
2009-10: 33/34
2010-11: 35/37
2011-12: ??/37 (TBD Sunday)

Totals: 642/683 (94%)
Last 2 Years: 68/71 (95.8%)
Last 5 Years: 167/173 (96.5%)
Last 10 Years: 327/343 (95.3%)

Final Field of 68 Projection: Early morning, March 11
 

Ok, Selection, how safe are the 'Cats? When (if) we knock them off on Thursday, does that burst their bubble?

BTW, we are in section 2 in the corner for tourney, pretty high, rows 30-31. At least we avoided nose bleeds this year. Where are you?
 

They're toast if they lose to us. However, I really believe if they beat us they'll be in decent shape (50-60% range), and certainly 2 wins would seal the deal.

We went through MSU this year and are in the upper deck. I think my dad said Section 207. We'll be ordering through Minnesota again next year after our 1-year experiment. We learned an important lesson when we decided to order through MSU. ... Sparty brings a ton of fans, the Gophers don't bring anyone!

Certainly on Thursday when there are lots of empty seats, I'll be sneaking into better seats in the lower level.
 

Thanks. Check us out in Section 2. I doubt all of us will be there for all the games.

While I have not pad close attention for over a month, I do think the match up against the 'Cats is about as good as we could get.
 

Holy Man said:
While I have not pad close attention for over a month, I do think the match up against the 'Cats is about as good as we could get.
Click to expand...

Agree, and I like that we draw Michigan if we win, although, MSU's really gonna' be hampered by the loss of Dawson.

Get to the semis, and then we're within sniffing distance of the NCAA tourney. That's always my motto for the BTT when we're out of the hunt as an at-large.
 


Watching the Badgers play, I understand how you would say they are overrated. At times, (usually at some point of every game) they can play very ugly basketball.

Not to argue, because they make me pull my hair out quite often, but it is hard to ignore what they have accomplished this season. They have two mystifying losses and otherwise have put together a very impressive resume. They have lost to RPI 3,5, 5, 7. 8 11. They won 6 road games in the best conference in the country. 3 top 25 RPI wins.

If they made the Sweet 16, I would not be shocked at all. Nor would I be shocked if a bad shooting night knocked them out in the round of 32. Any way you slice it, it has been a very successful season.

Great stuff as usual. Thanks for all the work you do throughout the season. Makes this board a great place for information.
 

Thanks GV, I appreciate the comments. I'm not arguing what the Badgers have accomplished, it's more that I just don't get the impression they'll be long for the tournament this year. If it makes you feel any better, it was between the Badgers and Florida for my 2nd most overrated team (behind Georgetown)!

I will be very surprised if this Badger team makes it to the 2nd weekend. If they do, that would be Bo's best coaching job, yet.
 

GVBadger said:
Watching the Badgers play, I understand how you would say they are overrated. At times, (usually at some point of every game) they can play very ugly basketball.

Not to argue, because they make me pull my hair out quite often, but it is hard to ignore what they have accomplished this season. They have two mystifying losses and otherwise have put together a very impressive resume. They have lost to RPI 3,5, 5, 7. 8 11. They won 6 road games in the best conference in the country. 3 top 25 RPI wins.

If they made the Sweet 16, I would not be shocked at all. Nor would I be shocked if a bad shooting night knocked them out in the round of 32. Any way you slice it, it has been a very successful season.

Great stuff as usual. Thanks for all the work you do throughout the season. Makes this board a great place for information.
Click to expand...

With them playing such a slow tempo style, I don't think they are ever going to get blown out or bet out of a game. That certainly helps. They live and die by the 3. If they get hot, they could make a run. If they aren't hot from 3, they could lose right away. Not really go out on a limb here, but Taylor certainly is the key. He's shot just 37% from the field in their losses this year.
 

SelectionSunday said:
Here's my second to last Field of 68 projection for the 2011-12 season. I'll post my final one in the wee hours of Sunday morning, March 11 (Selection Sunday). ALL CAPS in bold-italic indicates the team already has earned its conference's automatic bid. RPI's are courtesy of Jerry Palm at CollegeRPI.com.

Heading into the meat of Championship Week, I have 57 of the 68 slots filled (including automatic-qualifier placeholders) for the NCAA Tournament field. I have 22 bubble teams jostling for the final 11 spots.

FIELD OF 68 (3/5/12)
America East (1): Stony Brook (139)

ACC (5): North Carolina (3), Duke (4), Florida State (24), Virginia (40), NC State (57)

Atlantic Sun (1): BELMONT (61)

Atlantic 10 (3): Temple (14), Saint Louis (29), Xavier (53)

Big East (9): Syracuse (1), Marquette (7), Georgetown (10), Louisville (27), UConn (34), Notre Dame (39), West Virginia (44), USF (46), Cincinnati (68)

Big Sky (1): Montana (83)

Big South (1): UNC-ASHEVILLE (107)

B1G (7): Michigan State (5), Ohio State (8), Michigan (11), Indiana (12), Wisconsin (23), Purdue (42), Northwestern (48)

Big 12 (5): Kansas (6), Baylor (9), Missouri (16), Iowa State (30), Kansas State (43)

Big West (1): Long Beach State (35)

Colonial (2): VCU (49), Drexel (63)

Conference USA (2): Southern Miss (17), Memphis (18)

Horizon (1): Valparaiso (88)

Ivy (1): Harvard (36)

Metro Atlantic (1): Loyola-Maryland (82)

MAC (1): Akron (62)

MEAC (1): Savannah State (180)

Missouri Valley (2): Wichita State (15), CREIGHTON (22)

Mountain West (4): UNLV (13), Colorado State (21), San Diego State (25), New Mexico (33)

Northeast (1): LIU (90)

Ohio Valley (1): MURRAY STATE (20)

Pac 12 (2): Cal (37), Washington (54)

Patriot (1): Bucknell (84)

SEC (5): Kentucky (2), Vanderbilt (26), Florida (28), Alabama (32), Mississippi State (65)

Southern (1): Davidson (66)

Southland (1): Texas-Arlington (97)

SWAC (1): Mississippi Valley State (156)

Summit (1): Oral Roberts (38)

Sun Belt (1): Denver (79)

West Coast (3): Gonzaga (19), St. Mary's (31), BYU (45)

WAC (1): Nevada (47)
___________________________

Last 4 In: USF (46), Northwestern (48), VCU (49), NC State (57)

First 4 Out: Oregon (50), Texas (51), Miami-Florida (56), Seton Hall (60)

Others Under Consideration: Iona (41), Saint Joseph's (55), Middle Tennessee State (59), UCF (64), Dayton (72), Tennessee (75), Arizona (76)

Non-BCS At-Larges (10): UNLV (13), Wichita State (15), Southern Miss (17), Gonzaga (19), Colorado State (21), Saint Louis (29), New Mexico (33), BYU (45), VCU (49), Xavier (53)

Notes
** The Gophers' first three nonconference opponents (Bucknell, South Dakota State & Fairfield) all have advanced to the finals (Bucknell & Fairfield) or semifinals (South Dakota State -- plays Southern Utah tonight in the Summit League) of their respective conference tournaments. DePaul (Big East), Dayton (A-10), Virginia Tech (ACC), USC (Pac 12) and Central Michigan (MAC) begin conference tourney action this week. Mount St. Mary's, Indiana State, Appalachian State, St. Peter's and North Dakota State all either failed to qualify or have been eliminated from their conference tournaments.

** After losing its final regular-season game @ Cal State-Fullerton, spoiling its perfect conference season, Dan Monson's Long Beach State squad will endure a really sweaty Selection Sunday if it fails to win the Big West Tournament. The 49ers have played the nation's most difficult nonconference schedule (according to CollegeRPI.com), but they're 0-6 vs. the RPI top 50 and only 2-7 vs. the RPI top 100. The top-100 wins were against #53 Xavier on a neutral court and @ @98 Pitt.

** Northfield native Zach Filzen's Buffalo squad (#74 in the RPI) earned the #2 seed for the MAC Tournament, giving the Bulls a bye until Friday's semifinals. Buffalo swept Akron, the MAC regular-season champ.

** Two "under the radar" teams to look out for during Championship Week and beyond? I'm going with Iowa State (was in my preseason Top 25) and Temple.

** Two vastly overrated teams who may get dumped early in the NCAA Tournament? Gotta' go with Georgetown and Wisconsin.

** Joe Lunardi updated his bracket this morning. Lunardi & I currently have 2 differences in our at-large selections. Lunardi has Seton Hall and Texas in his Field of 68, in their place I have NC State and VCU.

** Jerry Palm also updated his bracket this morning. Palm & I currently have 2 differences in our at-large selections. Palm has Miami-Florida and Seton Hall in his Field of 68, in their place I have NC State and VCU.

** Speaking of Palm, here's how Palm, Joe Lunardi and I stack up picking the at-larges over the last 2 seasons. Lunardi picks up the rear. ...

Jerry Palm At-Large Projections
2009-10: 34/34 -- perfect --
2010-11: 35/37 (St. Mary’s/Virginia Tech; UAB/USC in instead)
Last 2 Years: 69/71 (97.2%)

SS At-Large Projections
2009-10: 33/34 (Illinois; Florida in instead)
2010-11: 35/37 (Colorado/Virginia Tech; Georgia/UAB in instead)
Last 2 Years: 68/71 (95.8%)

Joe Lunardi At-Large Projections
2009-10: 33/34 (Illinois; Florida in instead)
2010-11: 34/37 (Colorado/St. Mary’s/Virginia Tech; Georgia/UAB/VCU in instead)
Last 2 Years: 67/71 (94.4%)

And below are my at-large projection numbers since the 1991-92 season.
SS
1991-92: 33/34
1992-93: 31/34
1993-94: 30/34
1994-95: 30/34
1995-96: 33/34
1996-97: 31/34
1997-98: 30/34
1998-99: 31/34
1999-00: 32/34
2000-01: 34/34 -- perfect --
2001-02: 33/34
2002-03: 33/34
2003-04: 31/34
2004-05: 32/34
2005-06: 31/34
2006-07: 32/34
2007-08: 33/34
2008-09: 34/34 -- perfect --
2009-10: 33/34
2010-11: 35/37
2011-12: ??/37 (TBD Sunday)

Totals: 642/683 (94%)
Last 2 Years: 68/71 (95.8%)
Last 5 Years: 167/173 (96.5%)
Last 10 Years: 327/343 (95.3%) Final Field of 68 Projection: Early morning, March 11
Click to expand...

don't worry, I'm sure with time and practice you'll get better.

(seriously, impressive stuff)
 



Thanks.

I consider missing 2 or less a victory, 3 a push, 4 or more is failure.
 

While you're at it...what are UNT (U of N TX) odds of getting in?
 

row19gopher said:
While you're at it...what are UNT (U of N TX) odds of getting in?
Click to expand...

A lot better after the #1 (Middle Tennessee State) and #2 (UALR) seeds in the Sun Belt got knocked off last night. I'd say Denver is now the favorite, followed by UNT. 35 to 40% chance of UNT getting the automatic bid?
 

Thanks for all your work on the selection process. Maybe cross paths @ Indy.
 



Out of curiosity, about what seed do you think the Gophers will be if/when they win the Big Ten Tournament? They would be adding 4 quality wins to their resume putting them at 6-9 against the RPI top 50 (or 4-8 since NW would likely drop below 50), so they might get a decent seed. Maybe an 11 seed?
 

Another question... do the Gophers have ANY chance of making the tournament at large? After looking at the resumes of Jerry Palm's last 4 in (South Florida, Colorado St, California, and Miami) and Northwestern, the bubble is excruciatingly weak this year. After all, he has Northwestern in as an 11 seed even though they are 1-10 against the RPI Top 50! The main detractors I see against the Gophers are their record over the last 10-12 games and their RPI. Is it possible to overcome this? If they lose the title game they could be 3-8 vs RPI Top 25 and 5-10 vs. RPI Top 50 (again NW might drop below 50) which is better than most of the bubble teams in the same categories. In my opinion these are some of the most important categories since they prove a team can go out and beat quality opponents.
 

Ok, Selection, settle a question coming from above (another thread). What about Colorado State and Long Beach. I have mentally had Long Beach in as an at large no matter what they do in their tournament, and others are saying if they don't win, they oought to be nervous. Not familiar enough with CSU to comment at all. Seems like with a 35 RPI and some good NC wins, the Beach should be in, but I will wait until you weigh in.
 

Holy Man, the Cliff notes version.

LBSU is in some peril now that they lost their final regular-season game. Making matters worse, one of their best players (all-conference performer Larry Anderson) is doubtful for the Big West Tournament after suffering a sprained knee vs. Fullerton State, and the 49ers aren't very deep to begin with. They can get in as an at-large despite very little meat on their resume other than the #1 nonconference SOS, but they'll certainly be sweating it if they lose in the Big West tourney.

Colorado State's in pretty good shape, more because of a how weak the bubble is than its actual accomplishments. If they beat TCU in their Mountain West opener, they likely should be good to go.
 

mattw1067 said:
Another question... do the Gophers have ANY chance of making the tournament at large? After looking at the resumes of Jerry Palm's last 4 in (South Florida, Colorado St, California, and Miami) and Northwestern, the bubble is excruciatingly weak this year. After all, he has Northwestern in as an 11 seed even though they are 1-10 against the RPI Top 50! The main detractors I see against the Gophers are their record over the last 10-12 games and their RPI. Is it possible to overcome this? If they lose the title game they could be 3-8 vs RPI Top 25 and 5-10 vs. RPI Top 50 (again NW might drop below 50) which is better than most of the bubble teams in the same categories. In my opinion these are some of the most important categories since they prove a team can go out and beat quality opponents.
Click to expand...

You make good points but all that being said, IMO 6-12 is just too crappy to overcome all those things. I think the Gophers' only path to the NCAA is winning the BTT.
 

mattw1067 said:
Out of curiosity, about what seed do you think the Gophers will be if/when they win the Big Ten Tournament? They would be adding 4 quality wins to their resume putting them at 6-9 against the RPI top 50 (or 4-8 since NW would likely drop below 50), so they might get a decent seed. Maybe an 11 seed?
Click to expand...

I don't spend any time on the seeding stuff (selection only) but I'd guess a 12 or 13, since essentially we'd be like a lower-end bubble team.
 

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