Road to Jerry World: CFP Top 8

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SelectionSunday

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Here's one man's projection of tonight's 1st CFP rankings. Trying to mimic what the selection committee will do.

8. Notre Dame
7. Michigan State
6. Alabama
5. Ole Miss
4. Oregon
3. Auburn
2. Florida State
1. Mississippi State
 

Rankings are out: SEC takes 3 of 4 slots.

1. Miss St
2. FSU
3. Auburn
4. Ole Miss
5. Oregon
6. Alabama
7. TCU
8. Mich St
9. KSU
10. ND
11. Georgia
12. Arizona
13. Baylor
14. ASU
15. Nebraska
16. OSU
17. Utah
18. Oklahoma
19. LSU
20. WVU
21. Clemson
22. UCLA
23. ECU
24. Duke
25. Louisville


All I'll say is thank goodness there's still plenty of football to be played
 

It makes me smile to see Notre Dame so low. Even if I was cheering for them against FSU. The fact that 3 of the 4 teams are SEC is BS. I know they're the best conference by far, but 3 of 4 is just ludicrous.
 

Solid job by the committee. Not much to quibble with. Nailed it having Auburn as the highest 1-loss team and putting Notre Dame way down at #10. Gotta' beat somebody, Irish. Committee doing their homework.
 

SEC may have 3 of 4, but they'll beat each other up. Unless other teams lose games they shouldn't, I doubt we see more than 2 SEC in the playoffs.
 


Lil Richard 69 said:
SEC may have 3 of 4, but they'll beat each other up. Unless other teams lose games they shouldn't, I doubt we see more than 2 SEC in the playoffs.
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Agree. Decent chance there will be 2 SEC's but can't see scenario where they get 3. Sparty and even Nebraska are well positioned if they keep on winning. Still a lotta' carnage coming, especially in SEC.
 

The part I really dislike is that they're still biasing based on public perception as if you look purely at performance on the field, Bama has not beaten anyone of note this year (other than I guess #20 WVU) and their loss is too an Ole Miss team that has beat no one of note other than Bama, who just lost to LSU. The selection committee is just as in love with the SEC right now as the media is and there's really not a ton to back it (this year so far). Was hoping they wouldn't rank them based on outside perception but I really can't argue with the selections because it entirely comes down to how you view conference strength. It really is going to be interesting when it comes down to it b/c if the SEC gets 2 teams in from the West since right now as it stands Miss St could go undefeated and Auburn have 1 loss and get in without even playing for a conference title. Obviously a ton of football still to play but this whole 4 teams thing is going to really make this awkward down the stretch for the selection committee.
 

SelectionSunday said:
Agree. Decent chance there will be 2 SEC's but can't see scenario where they get 3. Sparty and even Nebraska are well positioned if they keep on winning. Still a lotta' carnage coming, especially in SEC.
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What's interesting is going to be if the top ranked guys in the SEC keep winning. Georgia wins out, beats Miss St in the CC (who was undefeated) and Auburn wins out. Then you've got the CC Georgia at 12-1, a 12-1 Miss St, and an 11-1 Auburn. Then $hit will entirely hit the fan. So the scenarios are entirely there right now.
 

I just want to know how Ole Miss is still in the top 4. Did they not just lose to a 2 loss team?
 




Lsu is way underrated at 19. Is this really better than the bcs?
 


Spoofin said:
It wasn't a "bad" loss
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It was an awful loss. Their QB is a petulant child that stormed off the field crying after throwing an awful INT

Auburn should have lost to KSU, if their place kicker could hit the broad side of a barn. They are not impressive and already dropped a game.

The rankings are a bad joke. As expected the committee hasn't watched the games. We have a condensed, less educated Coaches Poll. Holy ****t..
 



Mississippi St. - Vs Arkansas @Alabama. @ Old Miss
Old Miss - vs Auburn, @Arkansas, vs Mississippi St.
Auburn - @ Old Miss, vs Texas A&M, @ Georgia, @ Alabama.
Alabama - @LSU, vs Mississippi St., vs Auburn.

I count at least 6 elimination games in there. The rankings are based on work so far. Will be a fun ride.
 

Pompous Elitist said:
It was an awful loss. Their QB is a petulant child that stormed off the field crying after throwing an awful QB.

Auburn should have lost to KSU, if their place kicker could hit the broad side of a barn. They are not impressive and already dropped a game.

The rankings are a bad joke. As expected the committee hasn't watched the games. We have a condensed, less educated Coaches Poll. Holy ****t..
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What specifically do you most disagree with? Out of curiosity, who would be your top 8?
 

MaxyJR1 said:
Mississippi St. - Vs Arkansas @Alabama. @ Old Miss
Old Miss - vs Auburn, @Arkansas, vs Mississippi St.
Auburn - @ Old Miss, vs Texas A&M, @ Georgia, @ Alabama.
Alabama - @LSU, vs Mississippi St., vs Auburn.

I count at least 6 elimination games in there. The rankings are based on work so far. Will be a fun ride.
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You're assuming that the committee has common sense.
 

MaxyJR1 said:
Mississippi St. - Vs Arkansas @Alabama. @ Old Miss
Old Miss - vs Auburn, @Arkansas, vs Mississippi St.
Auburn - @ Old Miss, vs Texas A&M, @ Georgia, @ Alabama.
Alabama - @LSU, vs Mississippi St., vs Auburn.

I count at least 6 elimination games in there. The rankings are based on work so far. Will be a fun ride.
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Definitely a fun ride ahead. So much is gonna' happen. Take Auburn & Ole Miss for example. They're both in the initial top 4, and by the end of Saturday night one of 'em will be all but out of the playoff.
 


upnorthkid said:
What's interesting is going to be if the top ranked guys in the SEC keep winning. Georgia wins out, beats Miss St in the CC (who was undefeated) and Auburn wins out. Then you've got the CC Georgia at 12-1, a 12-1 Miss St, and an 11-1 Auburn. Then $hit will entirely hit the fan. So the scenarios are entirely there right now.
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Not possible, Georgia plays Auburn. But it is possible Georgia loses to Auburn, but then beats Miss St. in the conference championship. So the conference champ could have two losses, and Miss St and Auburn with only one loss.
 

Ole Miss shouldn't be ahead of Oregon. Both have wins over top 8 teams but Oregon has also beaten the #25 team and their loss was to a higher ranked team (Arizona is ranked 12th, LSU 19th). It'll play itself out but I think Ole Miss is not that good. They are lucky this year, they play Alabama, Auburn, and Miss St. all at home.
 

Can you be in the top 4 even if you do not win your division or conference?
 


It's difficult to objectively rank Mich State, Oregon, Arizona. Mich state played well then collapsed on some busted coverages. Game was closer than score. I watched Oregon get spanked at home by an AZ team that looked like TCU. I then watched the same Arizona team lay an egg at home vs a mediocre or above average USC team. the PAC 12 is a mess.

The SEC is not playing great football this year. None of the teams have looked particularly dominant. A Univ of Miss team that had been penciled in for the playoff was exposed by a mediocre LSU team. auburn escaped by the skin of their teeth from KSU. Alabama isn't quite Alabama this year.

Nothing I've seen convinces me Notre Dame is less than a top 5 team. They went on the road and nearly won vs FSU.

This is a year of non-dominant teams. If not for the terrible end to the TCU/Baylor game they would be ranked in the top 3 for certain.

Here are the correct rankings:


upnorthkid said:
Rankings are out:


1. FSU
2. Miss State
3. TCU
4. Mich State
5. Notre Dame
6. Alabama
7. Oregon
8. Auburn
9. Baylor
10. Georgia
11. KSU
12. Arizona
13. Univ of Miss
14. ASU
15. Nebraska
16. OSU
17. Utah
18. Oklahoma
19. LSU
20. WVU
21. Clemson
22. UCLA
23. ECU
24. Duke
25. Louisville


All I'll say is thank goodness there's still plenty of football to be played
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Agree about Ole Miss. They'll end up with 2-3 losses. Of the 5 SEC playoff contenders, think the Rebs are the one most likely to fade into oblivion.
 

GophersInIowa said:
Not possible, Georgia plays Auburn. But it is possible Georgia loses to Auburn, but then beats Miss St. in the conference championship. So the conference champ could have two losses, and Miss St and Auburn with only one loss.
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oops. yes missed that. That same scenario leads me to feel like we're going to have some controversy with the SEC vs the nation come selection time. I see why they can't have a clause in there that you must win your CC, but for goodness sake there needs to be a clause on number of teams per conference.
 

SelectionSunday said:
Agree about Ole Miss. They'll end up with 2-3 losses. Of the 5 SEC playoff contenders, think the Rebs are the one most likely to fade into oblivion.
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+1. though could just as easily be Auburn with Ole Miss, Bama, and Georgia on the schedule. And looking at it, any one of these teams could end up w/ 3 losses pretty easily with some of the horrible games they've played
 

Every conference has teams like the Gophers. They use non-conference games to get a good start and then the stretch comes. They don't have the depth to compete with the bigs boys and get worn out when the most important games come along. This is no different in the SEC, PAC12, etc. Teams improve, teams hit the wall, teams fall apart.

Alvarez tipped his hand a bit when he said that having all three phases of a team count. If you break down some games, you see that defense matters to the panel.
 

I'm OK with multiple teams from a conference, but I lean toward thinking you at least have to be a divisional winner (not sure how to handle Big XII). Translation? At least get to your conference title game.
 

upnorthkid said:
The part I really dislike is that they're still biasing based on public perception as if you look purely at performance on the field, Bama has not beaten anyone of note this year (other than I guess #20 WVU) and their loss is too an Ole Miss team that has beat no one of note other than Bama, who just lost to LSU. The selection committee is just as in love with the SEC right now as the media is and there's really not a ton to back it (this year so far). Was hoping they wouldn't rank them based on outside perception but I really can't argue with the selections because it entirely comes down to how you view conference strength. It really is going to be interesting when it comes down to it b/c if the SEC gets 2 teams in from the West since right now as it stands Miss St could go undefeated and Auburn have 1 loss and get in without even playing for a conference title. Obviously a ton of football still to play but this whole 4 teams thing is going to really make this awkward down the stretch for the selection committee.
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How about their bowl performance over the past few years? Maybe they beat each other up every year then roll in the bowls because they are that good?
 

SelectionSunday said:
I'm OK with multiple teams from a conference, but I lean toward thinking you at least have to be a divisional winner (not sure how to handle Big XII). Translation? At least get to your conference title game.
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This will likely be a tie-breaker in the room.

Everyone should want Alabama or Auburn to run the table. This would like help every other conference. If you want other conferences represented.
 

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