SelectionSunday
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Currently I have 53 spots in Field of 68 filled, 32 automatic bids (placeholders), and 21 locks. That leaves us with 15 at-large bids to fill. I have 23 teams competing for those spots.
I use 6 primary criteria for selecting at-large teams:
1. Record vs. RPI Top 100
2. Record vs. RPI Top 50
3. Record vs. RPI Top 25
4. Best 3 Wins Regardless of Home/Road/Neutral (add up the RPI of the 3 opponents)
5. Overall SOS
6. Non-Conference SOS (I treat the two SOS's as separate things, even though one is part of the other)
After that is where I allow myself plenty of subjectivity. I mix in other miscellaneous & important factors, ones that keep me from simply looking at the numbers. There has to be some gut instinct to this. Those other factors are RPI & KenPom (I'm human, I look at both), conference standing, road wins vs. the RPI top 75, neutral-site wins vs. the RPI top 75, bad losses to teams ranked #101 or higher in the RPI, and perhaps most importantly, record vs. teams in or under consideration for the field. If all else fails, the "eye test", which I'm not a fan of, breaks all ties.
Trying at least one thing a little different this year. No longer using "road/neutral" record as a primary criteria. Going to put an emphasis on quality road and neutral-site wins instead of the overall road/neutral record because so many road/neutral wins simply aren't created equal.
Not factoring in my subjectivity -- I'll have plenty of time for that in the next 11 days -- here's how my 23 bubble teams rank using the 6 primary criteria. I have noted which teams I currently have projected into the Field of 68, and which ones I have out. Fire away if you have a question about a specific team, where they rank in one of the criteria, etc.
15 Get In
1 Oregon State (14) -- IN
2 Texas Tech (16.5) -- IN
3 Syracuse (39.5) -- IN
4 Alabama (49.5) -- LAST 4 IN
5 Vanderbilt (53) -- IN
6 UConn (55.5) -- LAST 4 IN
7 Tulsa (57) -- FIRST 4 OUT
8 USC (59) -- IN
9 Seton Hall (62) -- IN
10 Michigan (68.5) -- FIRST 4 OUT
11 Florida (72) -- FIRST 4 OUT
Last 4 In
12 George Washington (76.5) -- OUT
13 Pitt (77) -- IN
14 Providence (80) -- IN
15 South Carolina (80.5) -- IN
First 4 Out
16 Florida State (83) -- OUT
17 Saint Bonaventure (88) -- IN
18 Butler (94) -- LAST 4 IN
19 Ohio State (95.5) -- OUT
Next 4 Out
20 VCU (98) -- LAST 4 IN
21 Cincinnati (102) -- IN
22 Gonzaga (113.5) -- FIRST 4 OUT
23 Princeton (121.5) -- OUT
I use 6 primary criteria for selecting at-large teams:
1. Record vs. RPI Top 100
2. Record vs. RPI Top 50
3. Record vs. RPI Top 25
4. Best 3 Wins Regardless of Home/Road/Neutral (add up the RPI of the 3 opponents)
5. Overall SOS
6. Non-Conference SOS (I treat the two SOS's as separate things, even though one is part of the other)
After that is where I allow myself plenty of subjectivity. I mix in other miscellaneous & important factors, ones that keep me from simply looking at the numbers. There has to be some gut instinct to this. Those other factors are RPI & KenPom (I'm human, I look at both), conference standing, road wins vs. the RPI top 75, neutral-site wins vs. the RPI top 75, bad losses to teams ranked #101 or higher in the RPI, and perhaps most importantly, record vs. teams in or under consideration for the field. If all else fails, the "eye test", which I'm not a fan of, breaks all ties.
Trying at least one thing a little different this year. No longer using "road/neutral" record as a primary criteria. Going to put an emphasis on quality road and neutral-site wins instead of the overall road/neutral record because so many road/neutral wins simply aren't created equal.
Not factoring in my subjectivity -- I'll have plenty of time for that in the next 11 days -- here's how my 23 bubble teams rank using the 6 primary criteria. I have noted which teams I currently have projected into the Field of 68, and which ones I have out. Fire away if you have a question about a specific team, where they rank in one of the criteria, etc.
15 Get In
1 Oregon State (14) -- IN
2 Texas Tech (16.5) -- IN
3 Syracuse (39.5) -- IN
4 Alabama (49.5) -- LAST 4 IN
5 Vanderbilt (53) -- IN
6 UConn (55.5) -- LAST 4 IN
7 Tulsa (57) -- FIRST 4 OUT
8 USC (59) -- IN
9 Seton Hall (62) -- IN
10 Michigan (68.5) -- FIRST 4 OUT
11 Florida (72) -- FIRST 4 OUT
Last 4 In
12 George Washington (76.5) -- OUT
13 Pitt (77) -- IN
14 Providence (80) -- IN
15 South Carolina (80.5) -- IN
First 4 Out
16 Florida State (83) -- OUT
17 Saint Bonaventure (88) -- IN
18 Butler (94) -- LAST 4 IN
19 Ohio State (95.5) -- OUT
Next 4 Out
20 VCU (98) -- LAST 4 IN
21 Cincinnati (102) -- IN
22 Gonzaga (113.5) -- FIRST 4 OUT
23 Princeton (121.5) -- OUT
