Ranked #32 on Pomeroy

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LesBolstad

LesBolstad

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I'm surprised we are this low; but Im confident we will steadily move up. This is the only rating system the NCAA selection committee looks at in March so it's one I follow closely. Teams on the bubble are usually selected on their Pomeroy rating.

Before anyone complains about being ranked lower than NC or WV note the following:

"The first thing you should know about this system is that it is designed to be purely predictive. If you’re looking for a system that rates teams on how “good” their season has been, you’ve come to the wrong place. There are enough systems out there that rank teams based on what is “good” by just about any definition you can think of. So I’d encourage you to google college basketball ratings or even try the opinion polls for something that is more your style.

The purpose of this system is to show how strong a team would be if it played tonight, independent of injuries or emotional factors. Since nobody can see every team play all (or even most) of their games, this system is designed to give you a snapshot of a team’s current level of play."

http://kenpom.com/rate.php?y=2011
 

Wisconsin at 16 is a joke, even if this is a "prediction" poll. There is nothing about Wisconsin's team or play thus far that hints at a top 20 finish. They easily have the worst depth of any "Big Ten contender" and have not looked impressive at all.
 


^^ Exactly. Things aren't really all set until the pre-season ratings are no longer in play (late January). We'll have plenty of time to move around in there.
 

Ken Pom has a different take, based on his mathematical models, but I have never known it to be a tool in the selection process. I can't remember any reference to it in the post mortem of the selection process, either. Lots of references to RPI and a few to Sagarin, but never for Ken Pom. I'll have to take a look at this time around.
 


I understand that it's too early to rely on these rankings, but if anything, wouldn't you think it would over value the Gophers at this point? I mean, what more could we have done. This is likely the best 'snapshot' of us that there will be all season. I don't get it, I guess.
 

Holy Man said:
Ken Pom has a different take, based on his mathematical models, but I have never known it to be a tool in the selection process. I can't remember any reference to it in the post mortem of the selection process, either. Lots of references to RPI and a few to Sagarin, but never for Ken Pom. I'll have to take a look at this time around.
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Yes - RPI is sometimes looked at, but is not a selection criterion. Don't know I've ever heard them talk about Pomeroy either.
 

Also, his projection for the team is 21-9 ; 10-8 Big Ten , yet the game by game projection gives us an edge 24-6. Again- too early
 

GopherHomer said:
I understand that it's too early to rely on these rankings, but if anything, wouldn't you think it would over value the Gophers at this point? I mean, what more could we have done. This is likely the best 'snapshot' of us that there will be all season. I don't get it, I guess.
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What the Gophers did NOT do is blow teams out (see Wisconsin, lately, in football). If you want to rise higher in most formula-based rankings, margin of victory matters too.

By the way, the reality check is simply the fact that we won in close margins against UNC and WVU on a neutral floor. This suggests that we aren't much better than them, if at all (based on statistical variance around the "mean" and probability of outcomes, not one head-to-head result). Furthermore, only one of our opponents was/is ranked. By that way of thinking, it's not too surprising if our formula ranking is not that high at this point. It all depends on what the formula is taking into account.
 



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