Question for the statisticians

[t-docious]

I was looking up the standings on btn.com found here http://bigtennetwork.stats.com/cfb/standings.asp?conf=1a%3A004

I noticed how we are 0-0 against the top25. Why doesn't the 25 change and reflect actual current 25 (i.e. TCU)? Doesn't that seem to be a more accurate account of S.O.S.?

What's the deal with that? ¯\_(ツ)_/¯



also loved how wiskydik has the second fewest points for; behind Penn St.

 

[Nate]

hot mess i just posted...

 

[Spoofin]

Why doesn't the 25 change and reflect actual current 25 (i.e. TCU)? Doesn't that seem to be a more accurate account of S.O.S.?

Because teams get better and worse as the year goes on. The poll is a snapshot (how accurate can be debated) of the CFB universe at the moment in time.

 

[maroonedinCA]

I was looking up the standings on btn.com found here http://bigtennetwork.stats.com/cfb/standings.asp?conf=1a%3A004

I noticed how we are 0-0 against the top25. Why doesn't the 25 change and reflect actual current 25 (i.e. TCU)? Doesn't that seem to be a more accurate account of S.O.S.?

What's the deal with that? ¯\_(ツ)_/¯



also loved how wiskydik has the second fewest points for; behind Penn St.

I agree, it should update to reflect the most current info.

Also, from what I can see wisconsin has scored more points than us and in one fewer game...

 

[jaymil]

I agree, it should update to reflect the most current info.

Also, from what I can see wisconsin has scored more points than us and in one fewer game...

Who cares? Oh I know...a Badger fan.

 

[dpodoll68]

Because teams get better and worse as the year goes on. The poll is a snapshot (how accurate can be debated) of the CFB universe at the moment in time.

Right, that's what he's saying. The "record against top 25" should be against the current top 25, not against whether the team was top 25 at the time you played them. For example, A&M gets credit for beating a "top 10" South Carolina team (LOL), but we get no credit for losing to an actual top 10 TCU team.

 

[SelectionSunday]

What dpo said.

A better reflector is the current top 25. What the teams eventually become (final ranking) is a much better indicator than what they were at the time a game was played. Gophers have 2 more games (hopefully 3) vs. teams that have a good chance to be in the CFP committee's top 25, Ohio State and Nebraska (and perhaps MSU/OSU winner).

 

[t-docious]

exactly DPO.

 

[Spoofin]

Right, that's what he's saying. The "record against top 25" should be against the current top 25, not against whether the team was top 25 at the time you played them. For example, A&M gets credit for beating a "top 10" South Carolina team (LOL), but we get no credit for losing to an actual top 10 TCU team.

My point is that rankings at the time the game is played may actually be more relevant because of how teams change over time. Theoretically, SC was a top 10 team when A&M played them even though they aren't now. I'm not saying I agree with that statement, but get why they do it the way they do and don't really disagree with the theory it is based on. Minnesota may end up a top 25 team, but we weren't one of the best 25 teams in the country when we played TCU. We have gotten better.

 

[cemba99]

My point is that rankings at the time the game is played may actually be more relevant because of how teams change over time. Theoretically, SC was a top 10 team when A&M played them even though they aren't now. I'm not saying I agree with that statement, but get why they do it the way they do and don't really disagree with the theory it is based on. Minnesota may end up a top 25 team, but we weren't one of the best 25 teams in the country when we played TCU. We have gotten better.

While I agree with your logic on teams that are getting better, the weakness in this argument is when teams are over-ranked at the start of the year. Take last's Florida Gators, over-ranked in pre-season polls as a #10 (an SEC over-ranked team - I am shocked....) When Miami beat them in week two, at the end of the year the Hurricanes are credited with a win against a "top 10" team. By the end of the year, the Gators had lost 7 straight including their first loss ever to an FCS team (MN Viking RB McKinnon's team - Georgia Southern). Doubt that Florida finished the year in the top 75 of FBS schools. But that did prevent additional schools from claiming wins against a "top 25" program as well (LSU and Mizzou).

 

[Spoofin]

While I agree with your logic on teams that are getting better, the weakness in this argument is when teams are over-ranked at the start of the year. Take last's Florida Gators, over-ranked in pre-season polls as a #10 (an SEC over-ranked team - I am shocked....) When Miami beat them in week two, at the end of the year the Hurricanes are credited with a win against a "top 10" team. By the end of the year, the Gators had lost 7 straight including their first loss ever to an FCS team (MN Viking RB McKinnon's team - Georgia Southern). Doubt that Florida finished the year in the top 75 of FBS schools. But that did prevent additional schools from claiming wins against a "top 25" program as well (LSU and Mizzou).

Plenty of weaknesses in either approach. I simply meant I do understand the logic. Don't really have an opinion either way.